MT: Public Policy Polling: Trump +6

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Montana President by Public Policy Polling on 2020-10-10

Summary: D: 46%, R: 52%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 9-10
798 voters
MoE: 3.5%
First set of changes with July 9-10 poll (not for a partisan sponsor)
Second set of changes with July 23-24 poll for AFSCME (a partisan sponsor)

Trump 52% (+1, +2)
Biden 46% (+4, +1)
Someone else 2% (not previously included, not previously included)
Not sure 0% (-7, -5)

[Ljube]

Bad poll for Trump.
If this poll is true, Biden will win the election.

[ProgressiveModerate]

We keep getting all these polls showing MT in mid single digits. Trump is in real trouble.

[Podgy the Bear]

With further resources (maybe even a campaign stop by Biden or Harris?), the chance for Bullock to take away a Senate seat from the Republicans becomes very real.

[Rand]

Bad poll for Trump.
If this poll is true, Biden will win the election.

It wasn’t until this Montana poll that I, too, finally realized Biden will win.

[wbrocks67]

Should note that the Data for Progress poll last week showed almost the same exact result (Trump +6, Bullock +1)

as did the NYT/Siena poll (Trump +7, Daines +1)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I think this will be the margin

[Pollster]

Sample was 54/36 Trump in 2016.

[MATTROSE94]

Seems about right.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sample was 54/36 Trump in 2016.

Considering that 2016 non-voters in MT skew heavily Dem, this sample seems quite fair, if not maybe just a tad R leaning.

[NOVA Green]

Perfectly reasonable topline numbers.

People seem to forget sometimes how close MT was in 2008 (McCain only won it by 2.3%).

Although I am still of the opinion that Biden will underperform Obama in the Upper "Grain Belt" regions such as Eastern MT, ND, SD, there are certainly pockets within MT, where Biden will likely overperform (Assuming a National Biden ~ +8% win).

Gallatin County (Bozeman) is one such place, where Trump received only 44% of the vote in '16 vs McCain's 47% in '08.

Missoula County (Missoula) is another place where movement will likely continue in the DEMs direction, even exceeding Obama's 62-35 win.

Lewis & Clark County (Helena) will likely be more akin to Obama-McCain DEM margins.

Yellowstone County (Billings) should be interesting. I could see Biden performing at Obama '08 levels within the City, or possibly a tad better, but losing ground because of rural parts of the County maintaining fairly high levels of support for Trump.

[MT Treasurer]

Perfectly reasonable topline numbers.

People seem to forget sometimes how close MT was in 2008 (McCain only won it by 2.3%).

Although I am still of the opinion that Biden will underperform Obama in the Upper "Grain Belt" regions such as Eastern MT, ND, SD, there are certainly pockets within MT, where Biden will likely overperform (Assuming a National Biden ~ +8% win).

Gallatin County (Bozeman) is one such place, where Trump received only 44% of the vote in '16 vs McCain's 47% in '08.

Missoula County (Missoula) is another place where movement will likely continue in the DEMs direction, even exceeding Obama's 62-35 win.

Lewis & Clark County (Helena) will likely be more akin to Obama-McCain DEM margins.

Yellowstone County (Billings) should be interesting. I could see Biden performing at Obama '08 levels within the City, or possibly a tad better, but losing ground because of rural parts of the County maintaining fairly high levels of support for Trump.

I’d be surprised if Yellowstone didn’t swing as strongly to the left as Gallatin. There’s no way a Democrat can come this close to winning MT without improving substantially over Clinton's 2016 result in that county, including the outskirts. Yellowstone is usually 5-8 points more Republican than the entire state, not more than that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT is a blue dog like Biden is, I don't think middle class voters think Bullock is gonna raise their taxes, not do they think Biden will. But, why didn't they poll the Gov race Cooney isn't 15 down, more like 6.

Bullock isn't Strickland or Bredesen he is more like Hickenlooper. Strickland only cratered due to fact he said Scalias death was a good thing, he was leading Portman the whole campaign

[NOVA Green]

Perfectly reasonable topline numbers.

People seem to forget sometimes how close MT was in 2008 (McCain only won it by 2.3%).

Although I am still of the opinion that Biden will underperform Obama in the Upper "Grain Belt" regions such as Eastern MT, ND, SD, there are certainly pockets within MT, where Biden will likely overperform (Assuming a National Biden ~ +8% win).

Gallatin County (Bozeman) is one such place, where Trump received only 44% of the vote in '16 vs McCain's 47% in '08.

Missoula County (Missoula) is another place where movement will likely continue in the DEMs direction, even exceeding Obama's 62-35 win.

Lewis & Clark County (Helena) will likely be more akin to Obama-McCain DEM margins.

Yellowstone County (Billings) should be interesting. I could see Biden performing at Obama '08 levels within the City, or possibly a tad better, but losing ground because of rural parts of the County maintaining fairly high levels of support for Trump.

I’d be surprised if Yellowstone didn’t swing as strongly to the left as Gallatin. There’s no way a Democrat can come this close to winning MT without improving substantially over Clinton's 2016 result in that county, including the outskirts. Yellowstone is usually 5-8 points more Republican than the entire state, not more than that.

Fair point, and I was trying to hedge my bet a bit on Yellowstone, at the Presidential Level.

Sure it was a 51.3% McCain vs 45.3% Obama County in '08, with 70.7k PRES TV.

Interestingly enough, it was a 58.1% Trump vs 31.5% HRC County in '16 with 70.5k TV, meaning there were actually fewer total voters between '08 and '16, despite a significantly larger increase in population within the County, as well as the City of Billings.

So in 2018, Tester (D) bagged 46.5% of the vote vs Rosendale's 50.1%, with a whopping 69.3k TV in an off-year election!

Naturally, this is a good sign for DEM-SEN 2020 prospects.

Meanwhile the population of Billings, Montana has jumped up dramatically from 104k in '08 to 109k in '16 and is projected to hit 111k in 2020.

https://www.opendatanetwork.com/entity/1600000US3006550/Billings_MT/demographics.population.change?year=2018

https://billingsgazette.com/news/local/government-and-politics/how-where-and-how-fast-will-billings-grow/article_031208af-972e-5b63-b28b-31989942c041.html

The numbers from the City of Billings look something like the following:

2008: Obama (47.2%) vs McCain (50.2%)  +3.0% with 54.1k TV

2016 is a bit murkier with split-precincts:

Split and Non-Split combined:

Trump: (53.6%) vs HRC (35.2%)   +20.4% R with 49.3k TV. 

Looks pretty clear if Biden can churn out turnout and enthusiasm and Turnout in 2020, plus assuming he sweeps the 3rd Party Votes, Yellowstone County could potentially flip hard.

So... yeah a bit of a wild card out here, and I took a bit of a safety because of the variables.