Baldwin Wallace Great Lakes Poll: MI Biden +7, OH Trump +2, PA Biden +5, WI Biden +7

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

https://www.bw.edu/Assets/community-research-institute/10-2020-bw-gl-poll-4-final.pdf

Unironically Trump's best poll this week

[philly09]

Been saying since late August that Bidens floor in PA is 5. He win by no less than that.

[libertpaulian]

The Ohio poll doesn't make sense.  If Biden is getting 40% of white non-college, he's winning the state.  Unless Trump is getting 33% with African-Americans or something.

[Gass3268]

Pretty close to the averages.

[Gass3268]

The Ohio poll doesn't make sense.  If Biden is getting 40% of white non-college, he's winning the state.  Unless Trump is getting 33% with African-Americans or something.

The cross tabs to these make no sense.

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

Michigan (3.2% MOE)

Biden: 50.2% (+8.0%)
Trump: 43.2%
Jorgensen: 1.1%
Hawkins: 0.8%
Others: 0.4%
Undecided: 4.3%

Ohio (3.1% MOE)

Trump: 47.0% (+1.6%)
Biden: 45.4%
Jorgensen: 1.4%
Hawkins: 0.4%
Others: 0.6%
Undecided: 5.2%

Pennsylvania (3.1% MOE)

Biden: 49.6% (+5.1%)
Trump: 44.5%
Jorgensen: 1.3%
Others: 0.4%
Undecided: 4.0%

Wisconsin (3.4% MOE)

Biden: 49.2% (+6.7%)
Trump: 42.5%
Jorgensen: 1.8%
Others: 0.5%
Undecided: 6.0%

[redjohn]

All believable results. Pretty consistent with high single-digits for Biden nationally, and obviously enough to comfortably win the electoral college. Is it enough to flip the senate, though? TBD.

[politicallefty]

I think Biden's going to win Ohio. Trump has pulled out and Biden is flooding the airwaves.

[Skill and Chance]

PA is 2% better for Biden than the mid September poll.  The others are all better for Trump, 1% in Michigan, 2% in Ohio, and 2% in Wisconsin.

[Dr. Arch]

PA is 2% better for Biden than the mid September poll.  The others are all better for Trump, 1% in Michigan, 2% in Ohio, and 2% in Wisconsin.

All noise in reality.

[Buzz]

Welp, I was hoping for a better Wisconsin number.  All these numbers are very believable though.

Trump improved everywhere but PA from their last poll.


Also yes I know this isn’t 2016, but they had Hillary up in Ohio 43-34 in mid October.  So they probably are not the best pollster on earth.

[NOVA Green]

Throw into the average bin, and let the hopper sort out the numbers...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isn't plus 2 in PA if Biden leads in OH

[morgieb]

Numbers themselves make sense, but the crosstabs are bizarre TSTL.

[TopShelfGoal]

These numbers are more consistent with a ~8-9 point nationwide lead as opposed to the ~12 point lead that some high quality national polls are saying. I would like NYT/Sienna to go in the field in WI/MI again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

PA is the MI of this election cycle, it fooled us in 2016, it voted so heavily D in 2017 for Wolf, due to Bob Casey Jr, he isn't on the ballot, D's can't take it for granted or WI in a close race

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 30 - October 8
Changes with September 9-22 polls
Changes calculated pre-rouding

MI
1134 likely voters

Biden 50% (n/c)
Trump 43% (+1)
Jorgensen 1% (n/c)
Hawkins 1% (+1)
Another Candidate 0% (but some voters) (-1)
Unsure 4% (-2)

OH
1009 likely voters

Trump 47% (+3)
Biden 45% (+1)
Jorgensen 1% (-1)
Another Candidate 1% (-1)
Hawkins 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Unsure 5% (-2)

PA
1140 likely voters

Biden 50% (+2)
Trump 45% (n/c)
Jorgensen 1% (n/c)
Another Candidate 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Hawkins 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Unsure 4% (-1)

WI
883 likely voters

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 43% (+2)
Jorgensen 2% (n/c)
Another Candidate 1% (n/c)
Hawkins 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Unsure 6% (n/c)

Edit: added pre-rounding changes

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Michigan President by Baldwin Wallace University on 2020-10-08

Summary: D: 50%, R: 43%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Ohio President by Baldwin Wallace University on 2020-10-08

Summary: D: 45%, R: 47%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Baldwin Wallace University on 2020-10-08

Summary: D: 50%, R: 45%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Baldwin Wallace University on 2020-10-08

Summary: D: 49%, R: 43%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I've added pre-rounding changes from the last Baldwin Wallace poll to this one

[wbrocks67]

These numbers are more consistent with a ~8-9 point nationwide lead as opposed to the ~12 point lead that some high quality national polls are saying. I would like NYT/Sienna to go in the field in WI/MI again.

they are those are their next 2 polls