AR-SEN Megathread: Dan Whitfield is out, Cotton plans to skip debate

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Might as well make one of these (not because the race will be close but because Cotton seems like the sort of Senator who might get discussed here a lot).

Whitfield was not on the ballot although was litigating to be there, but formally dropped out a week or so ago:
https://www.5newsonline.com/article/news/politics/dan-whitfield-suspends-us-senate-race-after-not-getting-on-the-ballot/527-dc966fde-0d1a-4b1b-90b3-ad279b60fcc8

He initially said he was not endorsing the Libertarian on the grounds that he hasn't talked with Ricky Harrington but seems to have offered begrudging support since then:

https://twitter.com/DanWhitCongress/status/1312634559314395136

Meanwhile, Tom Cotton has said he'll pass on a debate scheduled for October 14 with Ricky Harrington.

[GALeftist]

F for a FF

[SnowLabrador]

Cotton's probably going to Iowa or New Hampshire for a rally for the 2024 Presidential election.

[Left Wing]

Will Ricky Harrington surpass Joe Miller's 2016 vote share and become the most successful Libertarian candidate for senate ever?

[Canis]

Will Ricky Harrington surpass Joe Miller's 2016 vote share and become the most successful Libertarian candidate for senate ever?

Id say its certainly possible Cotton is hated among dems in the state I expect most to vote for Harrington and he could do decently among independents upset with Cotton I say his floor is prob late 20s and his ceeling is around late Thirties he might win a few counties potentially
The Libertarian Party in Arkansas and Indiana are definitely the best in the country

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

538 shows a poll for this race with Cotton at 48% and Harrington at 39% from American Research Group (B rating)

[Calthrina950]

Will Ricky Harrington surpass Joe Miller's 2016 vote share and become the most successful Libertarian candidate for senate ever?

Yes. I'm thinking he could get between 35-40% of the vote, which would be a very decent showing for a third-party candidate, period. Like I outlined elsewhere, Cotton only has a 48% approval rating according to Morning Consult, so he is despised by most of the Democratic base.

[They not like us]

Cotton still wins but I'm very interested to see how well Harrington ends up doing. I'd rather have him in the Senate than a literal fascist.

[Canis]

538 shows a poll for this race with Cotton at 48% and Harrington at 39% from American Research Group (B rating)

tbf it was a libertarian internal so you should adjust for that I think Harrington is probably at around low thirties rn like 31-33% is a little more realistic than 39%