AR-ARG: Cotton +11 (user search)
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  AR-ARG: Cotton +11 (search mode)
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Author Topic: AR-ARG: Cotton +11  (Read 1557 times)
Crane
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,080


Political Matrix
E: -8.16, S: 3.22

P
« on: October 10, 2020, 08:16:19 PM »


He would not have been able to beat Tom Cotton so he should only have run if he was going to avoid McGrath-esque grifting and had no further political ambitions. If he wants a job, he should run for a row office (he's term limited from seeking the governorship again) or Congress.

Tbh I think he’d have had a much better shot at actually winning than McGrath. Mike Beebe is actually popular in his state, where he has actually won, and big, even in a Republican wave year. A campaign (accurately) painting Cotton as a dangerous radical and Beebe as a sensible Blue Dog might have hd a shot. Still likely would have been the underdog, but would be more comparable to the position Harrison is in than McGrath.

No. Graham has much more of a base problem than Tom Cotton (or Mitch McConnell, for the matter) and the base is all that's needed for a Republican in a federal, statewide race in Arkansas. He might end up with a better margin than McGrath but the state was fundamentally unwinnable whereas SCSEN and KYSEN were plausible reaches with the right candidates.

Just look at what is happening to Doug Jones as an incumbent: Trump's 2016 margin in AL was only 1% better than his margin in AR in 2016. Their positions are likely to swap this year at the presidential level and Jones is getting blown out by Tuberville.

Quote
I mean, if even some random libertarian can pull it almost within 10, better than McGrath is polling, I don’t see why Beebe couldn’t have made this competitive. Beebe would be like Rocky Adkins or Steve Beshear running in Kentucky rather than McGrath.

This is an ARG poll (already to be taken with a grain of salt) and an internal; in addition, Libertarians potentially have access to crossover support that no Democrat could ever get (because of muh courts, among other issues).

At least one credible candidate ran statewide in 2018 in Arkansas for the Lands Commissioner's seat. All of them got blown out by 25+%. At least in KY, there is a Democratic coalition at the local level and the challenge is keeping enough of that together to survive federal contests; in AR, the path to winning a local race (let alone a federal one) appears to be much harder these days. The state party's infrastructure also appears to be a wreck: among other issues, they only got one candidate into the primary and this guy promptly withdrew at the first hint of opposition research. In winnable AR02, the current Democratic nominee filed only a day before the deadline and was also the only candidate to do so. This would all need to change very quickly for AR candidates to succeed and that's just not credible, so I'd rate this titanium R.

You would think the state that produced a Democratic president in the last 30 years wouldn't have seen it's party infrastructure collapse so hardcore. I guess that's because it's a very depressed and marginalized place. Walmart likes it that way I guess.
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