AR-ARG: Cotton +11

[Calthrina950]

It would be funny if we actually got a Libertarian in the senate. Anyways, still Safe R. Pretty cool that they are time travelers

At least this poll indicates that Harrington is getting the Democratic vote, so he should at least be able to keep Cotton to a "normal" winning margin for a Republican (which, using 2016's presidential and Senatorial results as a baseline, and excluding other options, would be something like 60-40% or thereabouts). Cotton's not going to get >80% like his predecessor Mark Pryor did in 2008.

[Calthrina950]

If negative partisanship keeps increasing it's not inconceivable that third party candidates running in places where the local Reps or Dems didn't bother could actually do better than the major parties otherwise would have even with considerably fewer resources. It's not like it's totally without precedent; in Canada the Liberals intentionally withdrew from a race to let the Greens try to take a Conservative seat (they failed, but they probably did better than the Liberals would have).

Of course, the likes of the Republican Party of Hawaii and the Democratic Party of Tennessee have dozens of political climbers and staffers who don't want to lose their prospects and salaries over living in the wrong state so there's no way they'd risk getting displaced by the local Greens or Libertarians, but if that wasn't an issue it could be a viable way to force the national parties to invest resources in otherwise safe seats.

I agree with the conclusions in this analysis, and it certainly is an indicator of how intensely polarized federal and state races have become that voters are no longer as willing to give an overwhelming or unanimous mandate to a major-party candidate facing no major-party opposition.

[Calthrina950]

So the libertarian is getting the normal AR Dem vote.  Fascinating.

It's a sign of increased polarization, and also, a marker against Cotton's odiousness. Cotton's approvals according to Morning Consult (https://morningconsult.com/senator-rankings/), a list which I believe was produced last year, are "only" 48% approve and 31% disapprove. And those who disapprove of him are clearly the Democratic base, which Harrington is getting.

[Calthrina950]

Lean "L"

Why do you think this???

Yellowhammer has been overinflating Democratic prospects in just about every race for months now. He doesn't actually believe it, but seems to be doing it so that he can be "pleasantly surprised" on Election Night when Republicans inevitably do much better (while still losing).