MT-MSU Bozeman: Bullock +2 | Rosendale +2
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  MT-MSU Bozeman: Bullock +2 | Rosendale +2
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Author Topic: MT-MSU Bozeman: Bullock +2 | Rosendale +2  (Read 1871 times)
MT Treasurer
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« Reply #25 on: October 14, 2020, 11:20:22 AM »

Sorry, fair point. What I merely meant to emphasize is that things looked better for Bullock than before. My bad.

Lol, no worries. A lot of the overreaction was based on two Emerson polls, both of which were outliers.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #26 on: October 14, 2020, 11:21:15 AM »

Sorry, fair point. What I merely meant to emphasize is that things looked better for Bullock than before. My bad.

Lol, no worries. A lot of the overreaction was based on two Emerson polls, both of which were outliers.

Emerson is so very strange, they're not consistently biased for either side. They're just...wrong.
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Xing
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« Reply #27 on: October 14, 2020, 11:22:43 AM »

Also, the "MT-SEN is Likely R because of polarization/presidential year/Daines is a strong incumbent unlike trash-tier candidate Rosendale" takes really, really, really didn’t age well. Who could have possibly seen it coming?

The problem is, if Bullock narrowly wins, people will think the "FL-SEN 2018 redux" takes were spot on, lol.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #28 on: October 14, 2020, 11:25:48 AM »

I still think William's has a chance here
But yay Bullock
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WD
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« Reply #29 on: October 14, 2020, 11:27:47 AM »

Also, the "MT-SEN is Likely R because of polarization/presidential year/Daines is a strong incumbent unlike trash-tier candidate Rosendale" takes really, really, really didn’t age well. Who could have possibly seen it coming?

The problem is, if Bullock narrowly wins, people will think the "FL-SEN 2018 redux" takes were spot on, lol.

I mean, I can see the parallels (Popular Governor narrowly beats bland, uninspiring incumbent) but MT and FL are 2 different states with entirely different political dynamics.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #30 on: October 14, 2020, 11:30:20 AM »

I had a horrible nightmare last night that for some reason there was a redo of FL-SEN in 2020, and Bill Nelson said he was "enjoying retirement too much" to run a campaign and Scott won by 4.


Horrifying. That race really scarred me. WAKE UP BILL. WAKE UP BILL DAMNIT.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #31 on: October 14, 2020, 11:41:21 AM »

A thing of beauty. Cooney is a FF and deserves the governor's mansion, but I'll take what I can get, knock on wood.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #32 on: October 14, 2020, 11:47:55 AM »

If Bullock wins I will very pleased. If Cooney wins too I will be ecstatic.

I'd rather have Williams than Cooney win, because that gives us another House delegation, which could be crucial if the unthinkable 269-269 happens.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #33 on: October 14, 2020, 11:55:46 AM »

If Bullock wins I will very pleased. If Cooney wins too I will be ecstatic.

I'd rather have Williams than Cooney win, because that gives us another House delegation, which could be crucial if the unthinkable 269-269 happens.

But Cooney winning continues the streak! Dems only in Montana since 2004! Four more years!
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #34 on: October 14, 2020, 12:29:09 PM »

Bullock is a strong candidate
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #35 on: October 14, 2020, 06:25:42 PM »

If Bullock wins I will very pleased. If Cooney wins too I will be ecstatic.

I don't even dislike Daines that much relative to the average GOP Senator, but the current crop of elected MT Democrats are some of the very best in the country and raising their profiles in the national party will do a bit of good to it.

I want to see President Bullock one day.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #36 on: October 14, 2020, 07:18:53 PM »

FWIW (probably not much because it’s just a hunch), this race to me feels like there will be a tiny fraction of the electorate (either undecided or more likely to name Bullock when asked about their voting preference by a pollster) who will reconsider voting out the incumbent and/or hesitate to vote for the Democrat who could tip the balance in the Senate when they actually fill out their ballot. There aren’t many of those voters (and I’m not sure if there’s enough of them for Daines to win), but I do think there will be some of them. Daines is not the kind of Republican who generates much enthusiasm, but I could see some Bullock Republicans switching at the last minute, for instance.

It’ll be a close race regardless of who wins, though.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #37 on: October 14, 2020, 07:20:50 PM »

Daines will lose

AZ, CO, GA, IA, KS, ME, MT, NC and SC now Leans D


AL, AK 3 pt race, KY no public polls, MS, TX lean R

AR and LA are on the cusp
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Heir of Camelot
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« Reply #38 on: October 15, 2020, 02:33:08 PM »

If Bullock wins I will very pleased. If Cooney wins too I will be ecstatic.

I'd rather have Williams than Cooney win, because that gives us another House delegation, which could be crucial if the unthinkable 269-269 happens.

For national politics yes. But Gianforte becoming Governor would be an unmitigated disaster for our state. He's a far right extremist and it would totally change the dynamic of the state legislature from Moderate Repubs working with Dems to pass Medicaid expansion etc. to Tea Party nut jobs empowered by GG guilt tripping Moderate repubs into passing laws that make our state Wyoming.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #39 on: October 21, 2020, 12:01:01 AM »

New Poll: Montana Senator by Montana State University on 2020-10-02

Summary: D: 49%, R: 47%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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