MT-PPP: Tied at 48%
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  MT-PPP: Tied at 48%
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Author Topic: MT-PPP: Tied at 48%  (Read 2286 times)
Calthrina950
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« Reply #25 on: October 12, 2020, 10:20:00 AM »

If this year is as bad for the GOP as 2008 was -- and I would say it is worse -- we are going to see most of the toss-ups go the Democrats' way. That is bad for Daines, Ernst, Collins, Marshall, and Graham -- and especially bad for Trump's fortunes in Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida.

I've also compared this year to 1980, and in that year, the "Reagan Revolution" carried at least a dozen Republicans into the Senate. Now it looks like that several Democrats might be carried into the Senate in tandem with Biden's victory-and all of the Republicans you list would be the analogues to those Democrats who lost in 1980.
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WD
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« Reply #26 on: October 12, 2020, 10:49:13 AM »

Reminder that in 2016, when Bullock was re-elected for governor, the last 3 polls were:

46-46
45-44
44-46

and Bullock won by 3.9% in the end.  This in a year where pretty much every race shifted hard against the Democrats at the last minute.

Don't underestimate Bullock.  He's an excellent politician.  Of course, COVID really hurts him in a retail state like Montana.

Funny enough, in Bullock’s 2012 race the final PPP poll of the race was a 48-48 tie. He then ended up winning by about 2
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #27 on: October 12, 2020, 11:00:30 AM »

I believe the final PPP poll in 2018 had Tester up 4, so yeah, this is looking very close. I imagine that most undecided voters are leaning toward Trump, given the state we’re talking about, and Bullock’s path always required winning over Trump voters open to voting for him. I’d give Daines a very slight edge here, but this race is far from over, and some of the “TN-SEN 2018 redux” takes from a couple of months ago aren’t going to look good.

90% of undecideds in this poll being Trump 2016 voters isn't such a crazy issue for Bullock when he and Tester both had to peel off huge amounts of them for their wins in 2016 and 2018. Not a favorable one, but not impossible.

To repeat what people have been saying here, this race will be down to the wire - it could be a real heartbreaker for Democrats (and Jon Tester, who probably never wants to work with Daines again).

Tester only won like 7% of Trumps voters according to exit polls if I remember. The real thing that put him over the edge were 2016 non-voters or 3rd part voters. Bullock will have to win over some Trump voters, but he doesn't need to win over 30% like everyone here likes to think. A lot of it will come down to turnout in this race, and who 3rd party voters like better since there won't be a 3rd party canidate on the ballot.
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VAR
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« Reply #28 on: October 12, 2020, 11:06:43 AM »

Senator Heitkamp, who outperformed her polls just like she did in 2012, agrees with MacArthur’s take.
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cp
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« Reply #29 on: October 12, 2020, 11:23:50 AM »
« Edited: October 12, 2020, 11:31:18 AM by cp »

Yeah I was really bullish on this race for a long time but in the last month I’m feeling a lot more pessimistic. It seems to be fairly close but aside from the characteristics of this race I can’t imagine Montana having TWO Democrats Senators

You can't imagine the years 2007-2015?

EDIT: This got me curious and I looked up Montana's Senate delegation history. For the 130 years Montana has sent Senators to Congress, 82 of them were with two Democrats. A two-Republican delegation happened for a grand total of 12 years, all within the first three decades of statehood. Not much imagination required here.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #30 on: October 12, 2020, 11:24:52 AM »
« Edited: October 12, 2020, 01:01:33 PM by sev »

Bullock will win; Daines has no appeal beyond generic R.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #31 on: October 12, 2020, 12:52:48 PM »

Bullock will win; Drained has no appeal beyond generic R.

I actually know quite a few Democrats who use drains for many different purposes such as in a sink. It's really only progressives that don't like drains because they waste too much water.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #32 on: October 12, 2020, 02:20:53 PM »

I can’t imagine Montana having TWO Democrats Senators

How about an all-D congressional delegation? Williams is looking surprisingly strong over in the House race. Maybe even a fifth term of D governorship, if Cooney does an upset.

I wish other states were as unpolarized as Montana.
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Badger
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« Reply #33 on: October 12, 2020, 02:55:40 PM »

90% of undecideds supported Trump for president in 2016. Sticking with my Daines +2-3 prediction.
Undecideds are disproportionately non-white and disproportionately independent. This looks like a real nail-biter.

Lol, your analysis is pretty different from mine.  Smiley Just keep in mind that non-whites make up a very small percentage of the electorate in Montana (just 9%).

Yeah, I hate to say it but the crosstabs show not a single undecided voter having voted for Hillary Clinton four years ago. Basically we're dealing with 7% of 2016 Trump voters who are undecided, plus 4% of those who voted third party or didn't vote,

Granted, a lot can be off with such a small sub sample size, but if we take it at face value fwiw oh, that's not encouraging news for Bullock
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #34 on: October 12, 2020, 03:05:17 PM »

Better poll for Bullock than we’ve seen recently.

I think Daines wins but I haven’t written Bullock off yet.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #35 on: October 12, 2020, 04:57:13 PM »

Good poll for Bullock. Hopefully he can edge out a win, Montana would then have one of the best senate duo.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #36 on: October 12, 2020, 05:05:30 PM »

Underrated pickup opportunity for Dems. If Biden keeps this close I think Bullock could squeak it out; tossup as of now imo
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #37 on: October 12, 2020, 08:49:58 PM »

New Poll: Montana Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2020-10-10

Summary: D: 48%, R: 48%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #38 on: October 13, 2020, 12:06:09 AM »

Wow, I didn’t even notice this because of those MI/NC stunners. Anyway, Tossup race remains Tossup, Emerson meme poll remains Emerson meme poll. Note that Bullock is just as close to 50% in this one as he was in the Data of Progress poll (which also pegged his support at 48%). The actual topline is completely believable, although it’s really baffling that there’s virtually no gender gap in this survey (they’re tied among women, Bullock holds a 1-point edge among men), which is very different from everything else I’ve seen. In any case:

I think we can fend off Bullock at around that 48% mark, but it’ll be close and Daines can thank God there’s no Libertarian on the ballot.

^I’m sticking to this, but it’ll be incredibly, incredibly frustrating to see people chalk up the outcome to “polarization” and “partisanship” if Daines wins this race because many of you really don’t realize what kind of Herculean effort it took to keep pace with Bullock and the MDP/national Democratic investments in this race. The party has pretty much thrown everything but the kitchen sink at Bullock and Daines has been running a very solid campaign in the last four months or so (including doing a much better job of nationalizing the race than Rosendale), so if Bullock ekes it out against an inoffensive and competent Republican incumbent with no Libertarian on the ballot in spite of his failure of a presidential bid/initial resistance to run for Senate which has been used against him extensively, it’ll be a stunning testament to the state’s idiosyncratic nature, which is admittedly hard for many ‘outsiders’ to comprehend.

There’s a lot to be said about the strength of the Montana Democratic Party and we’ve already touched upon most of the reasons behind it (growing urbanization and increasing influence of tech/health care sectors, a wave of liberal transplants which has outpaced previous R-friendly migration patterns in the Flathead Valley and parts of Yellowstone County/Eastern Montana, alignments between union interests and state politics, a fairly sizable college-educated and Native American vote, a certain independent-minded spirit which tends to be overstated but shouldn’t be underestimated, stellar Democratic GOTV operations, comparatively strong Libertarian support which largely works to the detriment of the GOP, Republican intra-party fights, a closely contested senior vote which has been friendlier to Democrats than in neighboring states, #retail politics, etc.), but I’ve always held the belief that an overlooked piece of the puzzle is the cultural and emotional attachment of people to place and the state's isolated geography, which just makes it much more difficult to nationalize races here than in almost any other Republican-leaning state. It’s easier to obfuscate the national implications of a Senate race and center your campaign on issues which have saved many a Democrat's bacon in the past (especially the notorious trifecta of health care, public lands conservation, and consumer protection) even if it entails running as a somewhat progressive Democrat when the line between gubernatorial/state and Senate/federal races is so blurred because the entire state feels like a separate country and the guy who currently governs you (Bullock) might as well be your president. I can’t prove this and I’m only speaking from personal experience here, but growing up or residing in MT sometimes feels like a completely unique ‘spiritual’ experience which you don’t really get from other parts of the country, as silly as it may sound.

Montana Democrats are extremely skilled at meticulously putting together a winning coalition and systematically blocking any potential Republican path even if it means spending weeks to figure out the tiniest, most isolated county possible (Daines should be more worried about a Bullock overperformance in Yellowstone County/the Billings area, which I also expect to swing hard D at the presidential level and where Democratic gains are likely to creep into the outskirts this year). The party also tends to catch Republicans by surprise by shifting the narrative in the final weeks of the campaign in favor of winning issues of the past, so it’s important for Daines to stay on message and avoid falling asleep at the wheel at this late stage of the race. As I predicted a few months ago, Democrats are trying their best to make pre-existing conditions/health care protections the number one issue in this campaign (I’ve seen a ton of those ads recently), but I think Daines is smart enough not to take the bait – he’s also handled public lands better than Rosendale. When all is said and done, I expect the colossal Republican efforts to keep defections as low as possible and to continuously nationalize the race as well as the absence of a Libertarian candidate to keep the seat in Republican hands by 2-3 points, but no one should be surprised by a Bullock win.

I take issue with the characterization of Montana as “unpolarized”, though – the state has a large pool of conservative voters of all ideological stripes (including an overlooked cohort of socially Republican/Evangelical voters, but really just a surprisingly diverse GOP base in general) who won’t be very happy about Bullock heading to Washington, but such is politics. Also, the polls GeneralMcArthur is citing were daily 50-state SurveyMonkey polls which were a complete disaster across the board — actual reputable polls (Mason-Dixon and to a lesser extent MSU Billings) showed Bullock ahead (albeit by very different margins), and the general consensus was always that Bullock was a clear favorite in the race.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #39 on: October 13, 2020, 05:05:28 AM »

Wait so there is no third party on the ballot at all?
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