GA-WSB-TV: Trump+2

[WD]

https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1314688163453992960?s=21

[ProgressiveModerate]

Glad to see Osoff isn’t really underperforming Biden

[redjohn]

We're not seeing a big swing to Biden in most battleground state polling, despite Biden surging nationally. Trump's nearly at 50% here; the state will be very close. Tossup, it's anyone's race in GA.

[Dr. Arch]

We're not seeing a big swing to Biden in most battleground state polling, despite Biden surging nationally. Trump's nearly at 50% here; the state will be very close. Tossup, it's anyone's race in GA.

Remember that state polling usually lags behind national polling. Let's see what next week has in store.

Current state polling is still showing Biden at around +7-8 nationally, for the most part.

[redjohn]

We're not seeing a big swing to Biden in most battleground state polling, despite Biden surging nationally. Trump's nearly at 50% here; the state will be very close. Tossup, it's anyone's race in GA.

Remember that state polling usually lags behind national polling. Let's see what next week has in store.

Current state polling is still showing Biden at around +7-8 nationally, for the most part.

Hopefully the two start to reflect each other more soon. I'd prefer we don't have a disconnect where we have Biden supporters shoving almost unbelievable national polls in people's faces to prove he's leading, and Trump supporters spamming okay polls for Trump to prove he's competitive.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Show me the white-black percentage before we turn this into a Dems in Disarray thread

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1314689183588528129?s=21

[Rep Jessica]

Trump is going to win Ga, Florida and Nc. The election will be won or lost in Pa.

[WD]

LMAO @ Lieberman

[ProgressiveModerate]

Trump is going to win Ga, Florida and Nc. The election will be won or lost in Pa.

Ah yes, Trump is all but guaranteed  to win FL, where he trails Biden by an average of 4% and where polls were only off by 2.4% in 2018.

[redjohn]

Trump is going to win Ga, Florida and Nc. The election will be won or lost in Pa.

I agree in the sense that if Trump slips up and loses one of these states, it's absolutely over for him. If he manages to win all three, PA is the pivotal state and he's sure not favored there at the moment.

[VAR]

Remember when GA moved to Lean D because muh Quinnipiac/Civiqs?

My prediction: Tossup —> Tossup
People who overreact to insignificant swings: Lean D —> Lean R

[Skill and Chance]

Polls are still looking more 2012ish than I expected.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Today’s polls have me nervous.

[kph14]

Trump is going to win Ga, Florida and Nc. The election will be won or lost in Pa.

Biden can without GA, FL, NC and PA.

AZ, NE-2, MI and WI plus all Clinton states is enough

[WD]

FWIW this poll is 64% white.

[Buzz]

These WSBTV polls have been pretty bouncy.  Think it’s gone from Trump +7 —> Biden +2 —> Trump +2


Wouldn’t really worry too much one way or another.  Close race remains close.

[kireev]

FWIW this poll is 64% white.

Is there a link to crosstabs?

[WD]

FWIW this poll is 64% white.

Is there a link to crosstabs?

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/7224570-WSB-Landmark-Senate-Poll-10-9-20.html

[VAR]

FWIW this poll is 64% white.

I don’t get why people think this matters, polls that had Abrams and Kemp tied were 64% white as well.

There doesn’t need to be a polling error for GA to flip. But if Biden can’t lead a poll here, 413 won’t happen.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Weird day of state polls. Maybe Biden really is getting 80% in California

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

FWIW this poll is 64% white.

I don’t get why people think this matters, polls that had Abrams and Kemp tied were 64% white as well.

There doesn’t need to be a polling error for GA to flip. But if Biden can’t lead a poll here, 413 won’t happen.

I would say usually the focus on crosstabs is excessive, but in GA and the rest of the south where you can predict with high confidence how someone will vote based on race alone, crosstabs is a good thing to look at when you try and compare it to what the Electorate will likely be. I’d be shocked if whites made up more than 60% of the GA vote at most, and more realistically, probably around 56-58 in a presidential year.

[Bootes Void]

Decimals.. Georgia is all down to turnout and getting the base out on/by election day .

[GeorgiaModerate]

FWIW this poll is 64% white.

I don’t get why people think this matters, polls that had Abrams and Kemp tied were 64% white as well.

There doesn’t need to be a polling error for GA to flip. But if Biden can’t lead a poll here, 413 won’t happen.

He can.  In the last 9 polls (the 8 shown on 538's GA polling page plus this one) Biden has led in 5 of them, Trump has led in 3, and one has been tied. 

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Remember when GA moved to Lean D because muh Quinnipiac/Civiqs?

My prediction: Tossup —> Tossup
People who overreact to insignificant swings: Lean D —> Lean R

FWIW this poll is 64% white.

I don’t get why people think this matters, polls that had Abrams and Kemp tied were 64% white as well.

There doesn’t need to be a polling error for GA to flip. But if Biden can’t lead a poll here, 413 won’t happen.

1. Gotta love the usual suspects liking that first post

2. Didn't we just have like three GA polls in the last week with Biden leading?