Massive incongruency between state polls and national polls right now.
clearly
State polls tend to lag behind a day or two, plus the batch of polls we've recieved today are all from pollsters notorious for being bullish on Rs.
1. National polls are way more reliable than state polls, historically.
2. It's common for state polls to greatly underestimate the winning candidate's margin in highly polarized states. The latest poll out of West Virginia had Trump winning by only 18, which would represent a 22-point swing leftward. Trump's polling average on 538 in Tennessee is +13.5%, which would be nearly a 13-point swing to the left. I tend to be skeptical that these polls have any predictive power for the margin of victory, let alone for the national result.
