NJ-FDU: Biden +15

[VAR]

Biden 53%
Trump 38%

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/2020/201009/final.pdf

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 30 - October 5
582 likely voters
MoE: 4.6% among likely voters

Biden 53%
Trump 38%
Refused 4%
Someone else 1%
Undecided 4%

Among 736 registered voters (MoE: 4.1%):
Changes with February 12-16 poll

Biden 52% (-1)
Trump 35% (n/c)
Refused 4%
Someone else 2%
Undecided 7%

[LimoLiberal]

Massive incongruency between state polls and national polls right now.

[Umengus]

Massive incongruency between state polls and national polls right now.

clearly

[ProgressiveModerate]

Massive incongruency between state polls and national polls right now.

clearly

State polls tend to lag behind a day or two, plus the batch of polls we've recieved today are all from pollsters notorious for being bullish on Rs.

[It’s so Joever]

Republicans at this point should hope this election is not like 2016 in terms of polling.

[kireev]

Race  and party ID look a bit Republican-friendly.

Only 9% black.

46% DEM 37% REP party ID with learners.  Current party registration in NJ is 39% DEM,  22% REP. The party ID was 43% to 27% in the 2016 CNN exit poll. So the poll does feel too friendly to the GOP.

[psychprofessor]

NJ is solid Dem but the R usually reaches 40% in pres elections. I wouldn't be surprised to see something like 58-42 Biden.

[Skill and Chance]

Been a lot of weakish NJ polls for Biden for some reason while the rest of the NE is polling really strong for him.  This one is only 1% better than 2016 among LVs.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Massive incongruency between state polls and national polls right now.

clearly

State polls tend to lag behind a day or two, plus the batch of polls we've recieved today are all from pollsters notorious for being bullish on Rs.

1. National polls are way more reliable than state polls, historically.

2. It's common for state polls to greatly underestimate the winning candidate's margin in highly polarized states. The latest poll out of West Virginia had Trump winning by only 18, which would represent a 22-point swing leftward. Trump's polling average on 538 in Tennessee is +13.5%, which would be nearly a 13-point swing to the left. I tend to be skeptical that these polls have any predictive power for the margin of victory, let alone for the national result.

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: New Jersey President by Fairleigh Dickinson University on 2020-10-05

Summary: D: 53%, R: 38%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm still pretty confident that Biden is going to win by at least 18% here. Especially if Biden and Kennedy are indeed leading in NJ-2.