COVID-19 Megathread 6: The Delta Variant Strikes Back
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  COVID-19 Megathread 6: The Delta Variant Strikes Back
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Author Topic: COVID-19 Megathread 6: The Delta Variant Strikes Back  (Read 149741 times)
soundchaser
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« Reply #4575 on: June 22, 2021, 03:19:28 PM »

The Delta variant has to be taken seriously. It's not just the UK, in Israel which leads the world in vaccinations they are seeing clusters around schools developing among the unvaccinated and it is in turn infecting people who have been fully vaccinated. All countries should step up their vaccine efforts and continue tracking/monitoring and lockdowns in breakout areas.


I think the Biden administration should try to implement a mandatory one year lockdown on all non essential businesses and implement a permanent mask mandate. That will bring case numbers down to about 50 per day and prevent more serious variants from developing at least in the US.

Respectfully: no part of this suggestion would work.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #4576 on: June 22, 2021, 03:55:42 PM »

The Delta variant has to be taken seriously. It's not just the UK, in Israel which leads the world in vaccinations they are seeing clusters around schools developing among the unvaccinated and it is in turn infecting people who have been fully vaccinated. All countries should step up their vaccine efforts and continue tracking/monitoring and lockdowns in breakout areas.


I think the Biden administration should try to implement a mandatory one year lockdown on all non essential businesses and implement a permanent mask mandate. That will bring case numbers down to about 50 per day and prevent more serious variants from developing at least in the US.

Respectfully: no part of this suggestion would work.
It will keep case numbers down and allow the vaccine manufacturers time to develop a better COVID vaccine that can neutralize any potential variants that develop.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #4577 on: June 22, 2021, 04:11:07 PM »

The Delta variant has to be taken seriously. It's not just the UK, in Israel which leads the world in vaccinations they are seeing clusters around schools developing among the unvaccinated and it is in turn infecting people who have been fully vaccinated. All countries should step up their vaccine efforts and continue tracking/monitoring and lockdowns in breakout areas.


I think the Biden administration should try to implement a mandatory one year lockdown on all non essential businesses and implement a permanent mask mandate. That will bring case numbers down to about 50 per day and prevent more serious variants from developing at least in the US.

Respectfully: no part of this suggestion would work.
It will keep case numbers down and allow the vaccine manufacturers time to develop a better COVID vaccine that can neutralize any potential variants that develop.

The vaccines we already have in the US are easily strong enough to fight off any variants we have seen thus far.  Everyone just needs to get them.   A vaccine mandate would be far more effective and far less intrusive than anything you are suggesting.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #4578 on: June 22, 2021, 04:12:14 PM »

We HAVE a vaccine that neutralizes any variants ó the mRNA vaccines are still wildly effective against them. And our case numbers are going down already, at a rapid pace.

I understand that youíre concerned about the Delta variant and the virus in general. But try to relax: the data we have continues to show that vaccinated people are almost totally safe.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #4579 on: June 22, 2021, 04:13:14 PM »

What we could do is very very easy: implement a national vaccine mandate.

It is absurd that we put up with economic shutdowns for months and a mask mandate for over a year, but we are unwilling to mandate something that will literally just inconvenience people for a few hours but solve the problem completely.
I would be all for a nationwide vaccine mandate, but at least judging by its rulings on other cases regarding COVID restrictions, the Supreme Court would strike down a vaccine mandate in a 5-4 ruling.
Not only would it not be in line with SCOTUS rulings, merely trying to implement it would be a shot in the arm (unintentional pun hahaha) to anti-vax movements and harm the vaccination efforts.

The Supreme Court has already ruled that vaccine mandates are constitutional.
I would agree that this would have to come from congressional legislation and not a mere executive order to be assured of SC approval.

And how would a vaccine mandate harm vaccination efforts?  It's not like mask mandates led to fewer people wearing masks.  A lot of people were only wearing them because they had to, and took them off as soon as mandates were lifted.  I'm pretty sure the same thing would happen for most vaccine hesitant people.
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Make America Neoliberal Again
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« Reply #4580 on: June 22, 2021, 04:31:46 PM »

We HAVE a vaccine that neutralizes any variants ó the mRNA vaccines are still wildly effective against them. And our case numbers are going down already, at a rapid pace.

I understand that youíre concerned about the Delta variant and the virus in general. But try to relax: the data we have continues to show that vaccinated people are almost totally safe.

Yep. A vaccine going from 99% effective to 90% effective, which seems like a rough estimate of what we're seeing in other countries, isn't great but is certainly enough to mostly neutralize a public health emergency.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #4581 on: June 22, 2021, 04:36:35 PM »

The most comparable vaccine ó the annual flu vaccine ó ranges from 40% to 60% effective depending on the year. Letís not undersell just how good the Pfizer and Moderna COVID vaccines are.
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Southern Deputy Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #4582 on: June 22, 2021, 04:38:12 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2021, 04:43:16 PM by Southern Deputy Speaker Punxsutawney Phil »

What we could do is very very easy: implement a national vaccine mandate.

It is absurd that we put up with economic shutdowns for months and a mask mandate for over a year, but we are unwilling to mandate something that will literally just inconvenience people for a few hours but solve the problem completely.
I would be all for a nationwide vaccine mandate, but at least judging by its rulings on other cases regarding COVID restrictions, the Supreme Court would strike down a vaccine mandate in a 5-4 ruling.
Not only would it not be in line with SCOTUS rulings, merely trying to implement it would be a shot in the arm (unintentional pun hahaha) to anti-vax movements and harm the vaccination efforts.

The Supreme Court has already ruled that vaccine mandates are constitutional.
I would agree that this would have to come from congressional legislation and not a mere executive order to be assured of SC approval.

And how would a vaccine mandate harm vaccination efforts?  It's not like mask mandates led to fewer people wearing masks.  A lot of people were only wearing them because they had to, and took them off as soon as mandates were lifted.  I'm pretty sure the same thing would happen for most vaccine hesitant people.
Well that is news to me.

Anyway, the big problem with a nationwide vaccinate mandate is that from a PR position it pushes those who may have skepticism but aren't sure or are very undecided and puts a propogranda tool in the eyes of anti-vax activists to have additional wiggle room to make persuasive arguments to these people. And what would be the way this would be enforced? I admit that it's definitely possible it would be a net health benefit for the public, the greatest good for the greatest number, but people are still getting vaccinated even without that sort of mandate as it is, or at least, with "soft mandates" (people getting the shot as a requirement to check in for work, etc.) that are looking likely, at this point in time, to do the same job with more steps, together with massive PR campaigns. I don't think at the moment it's wise to risk radicalizing more people and mint the anti-vax movement more followers when it's not at all clear that it's even necessary to get the job done. The vast majority of people still plan to get vaccinated even if the government isn't requiring it from every citizen.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #4583 on: June 22, 2021, 04:55:12 PM »

What we could do is very very easy: implement a national vaccine mandate.

It is absurd that we put up with economic shutdowns for months and a mask mandate for over a year, but we are unwilling to mandate something that will literally just inconvenience people for a few hours but solve the problem completely.
I would be all for a nationwide vaccine mandate, but at least judging by its rulings on other cases regarding COVID restrictions, the Supreme Court would strike down a vaccine mandate in a 5-4 ruling.
Not only would it not be in line with SCOTUS rulings, merely trying to implement it would be a shot in the arm (unintentional pun hahaha) to anti-vax movements and harm the vaccination efforts.

The Supreme Court has already ruled that vaccine mandates are constitutional.
I would agree that this would have to come from congressional legislation and not a mere executive order to be assured of SC approval.

And how would a vaccine mandate harm vaccination efforts?  It's not like mask mandates led to fewer people wearing masks.  A lot of people were only wearing them because they had to, and took them off as soon as mandates were lifted.  I'm pretty sure the same thing would happen for most vaccine hesitant people.
Well that is news to me.

Anyway, the big problem with a nationwide vaccinate mandate is that from a PR position it pushes those who may have skepticism but aren't sure or are very undecided and puts a propogranda tool in the eyes of anti-vax activists to have additional wiggle room to make persuasive arguments to these people. And what would be the way this would be enforced? I admit that it's definitely possible it would be a net health benefit for the public, the greatest good for the greatest number, but people are still getting vaccinated even without that sort of mandate as it is, or at least, with "soft mandates" (people getting the shot as a requirement to check in for work, etc.) that are looking likely, at this point in time, to do the same job with more steps, together with massive PR campaigns. I don't think at the moment it's wise to risk radicalizing more people and mint the anti-vax movement more followers when it's not at all clear that it's even necessary to get the job done. The vast majority of people still plan to get vaccinated even if the government isn't requiring it from every citizen.

Jacobson v. Massachusetts, 1905.
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Antifacist Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #4584 on: June 22, 2021, 06:26:55 PM »

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GP270watch
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« Reply #4585 on: June 22, 2021, 08:15:24 PM »

We HAVE a vaccine that neutralizes any variants ó the mRNA vaccines are still wildly effective against them. And our case numbers are going down already, at a rapid pace.

I understand that youíre concerned about the Delta variant and the virus in general. But try to relax: the data we have continues to show that vaccinated people are almost totally safe.

Yep. A vaccine going from 99% effective to 90% effective, which seems like a rough estimate of what we're seeing in other countries, isn't great but is certainly enough to mostly neutralize a public health emergency.

 Yes we need to get more people vaccinated because that will limit the number of people who get any version of Covid-19 and stop it from spreading and developing new variants. One of the problems with this pandemic is the terrible contact tracing and lockdowns most countries have done. The public does not have the tolerance for full lockdowns and their limited patience for them shouldn't be squandered for an area that doesn't need it. Lockdowns should be for hotspots and clusters and limited based on data.

 There was a case in Florida where an entire IT department and some staff that worked with them got Covid-19, 2 people died and number of others were really sick and hospitalized. The lone uninfected employee from this cluster who had interacted with all the infected was a 23 year old who was fully vaccinated and never contracted Covid-19. Delta and other variants might continue to be harmful if we leave a significant portion of the population unvaccinated.

 
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #4586 on: June 22, 2021, 08:22:14 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/22 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.
  • These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



6/13: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 34,321,093 (+5,226 | ΔW Change: ↓18.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.02%)
  • Deaths: 615,053 (+16 | ΔW Change: ↓90.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.00%)

6/14: <M>
  • Cases: 34,334,299 (+7,310 [+13,206] | ΔW Change: ↓40.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
  • Deaths: 615,263 (+106 [+210] | ΔW Change: ↓68.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.03%)

6/15: <T>
  • Cases: 34,351,363 (+11,884 [+17,064] | ΔW Change: ↓12.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)
  • Deaths: 615,703 (+341 [+440] | ΔW Change: ↓2.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)

6/16: <W>
  • Cases: 34,365,327 (+12,757 [+13,964] | ΔW Change: ↓10.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
  • Deaths: 616,141 (+352 [+438] | ΔW Change: ↓20.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)

6/17: <ř>
  • Cases: 34,376,793 (+11,466 | ΔW Change: ↑7.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.03%)
  • Deaths: 616,423 (+282 | ΔW Change: ↓31.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)

6/18: <F>
  • Cases: 34,393,269 (+13,389 [+16,476] | ΔW Change: ↓15.94% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)
  • Deaths: 616,920 (+393 [+497] | ΔW Change: ↓6.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

6/19: <S>
  • Cases: 34,401,712 (+8,443 | ΔW Change: ↓11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.02%)
  • Deaths: 617,083 (+163 | ΔW Change: ↓46.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.03%)

6/20 (Holiday): <Sunday>
  • Cases: 34,406,001 (+4,289 | ΔW Change: ↓17.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.01%)
  • Deaths: 617,166 (+83 | ΔW Change: ↑418.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.01%)

6/21 (Yesterday): <M>
  • Cases: 34,419,838 (+6,609 [+13,837] | ΔW Change: ↓9.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
  • Deaths: 617,463 (+121 [+297] | ΔW Change: ↑14.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)

6/22 (Today): <T>
  • Cases: 34,433,696 (+9,898 [+13,858] | ΔW Change: ↓16.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
  • Deaths: 617,864 (+335 [+401] | ΔW Change: ↓1.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.06%)
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #4587 on: June 23, 2021, 05:39:50 AM »

Delta variant is more likely to put a young adult in the hospital, though the chances are still small. If you're vaccinated your chances of that are still very small. This is just what I'm hearing from the doctors on TV.

Uhh....

This information about the Delta variant makes me start favoring the reimplementation of preventative lockdowns.

These stats make no sense to me.  They appear to be showing that the overall CFR of the delta variant is only about 0.1%.   That alone seems very unlikely to me, not to mention several other weird anomalies in this table.

I can't see with strange with that stat, because the un-vaccinated tend to be WAY younger and healthier than those who are vaccinated. With other words, there is a strong selection and self-selection bias.

I don't know about Delta, but here is "old" numbers (as for 1st Dec 2020) for Americans.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mortality-risk-estimator




CFR for an average 50-years old American (given a positive test) was ~0.3% (0.2% for female and 0.4% for male). For an Average American. I assume that people with underling medical condition are much more likely to be vaccinated. That is the CFR for a ~healthy un-vaccinated 50-years old is likely to be under 0.1% for "normal" variant. Probably somewhat higher for Delta.



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Calthrina950
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« Reply #4588 on: June 23, 2021, 09:08:55 AM »

Earlier this morning, I was sent a video by my father-whose vaccine skepticism I've chronicled here-which is from OANN, the right-wing cable network that has set itself up as an "alternative" to Fox News. I wish I could post the video here so that posters on here could see it, but I don't think there's a way to do that, as the video was sent to me as an attachment. He got it from a friend of his.

Basically, the video claims that there are "serious" doubts about the effectiveness of the coronavirus vaccine, and that it has more "severe" side effects than all other vaccines. It lists the number of miscarriages, deaths, hospitalizations, etc. of people who've had the vaccine, and talks about "concerns" regarding the vaccine in Britain and Israel.

Given that this is OANN, pretty much all that it says is either misinformation or biased, and as has been noted, the number of "vaccine deaths" pale in comparison to the number of people who've died from coronavirus. So he's gone from justifying his skepticism on the basis of an article in AARP to now relying upon this cable network. And yet he says I buy into false media narratives....
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #4589 on: June 23, 2021, 02:44:41 PM »

My prediction is that there'll be another wave thanks to the deplorables refusing to get vaccinated. This one will be the worst one.
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Forumlurker
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« Reply #4590 on: June 23, 2021, 04:03:14 PM »

The Delta Plus variant appears to have taken some of the properties of the Beta variant. If it spreads, we are f**ked.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #4591 on: June 23, 2021, 04:09:49 PM »

My prediction is that there'll be another wave thanks to the deplorables refusing to get vaccinated. This one will be the worst one.

Youíre delusional.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #4592 on: June 23, 2021, 04:36:25 PM »

My prediction is that there'll be another wave thanks to the deplorables refusing to get vaccinated. This one will be the worst one.
I agree. It is possible that we end up with 1 million COVID cases per day in a few weeks and that the variant mutates to become 100% impervious to vaccines, thus putting us at square one again.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #4593 on: June 23, 2021, 04:39:20 PM »

My prediction is that there'll be another wave thanks to the deplorables refusing to get vaccinated. This one will be the worst one.
I agree. It is possible that we end up with 1 million COVID cases per day in a few weeks and that the variant mutates to become 100% impervious to vaccines, thus putting us at square one again.

It's also possible that I'll win the lottery next week.

*plonk*
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #4594 on: June 23, 2021, 05:00:53 PM »

My prediction is that there'll be another wave thanks to the deplorables refusing to get vaccinated. This one will be the worst one.

Not. My. Problem. Anymore.

I got both doses of Pfizer months ago, and if they issue new lockdowns and mask mandates, they're just going to have to cram it. What was the point of getting vaccinated if we can't go right back to normal life right away?
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soundchaser
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« Reply #4595 on: June 23, 2021, 05:01:23 PM »

My prediction is that there'll be another wave thanks to the deplorables refusing to get vaccinated. This one will be the worst one.
I agree. It is possible that we end up with 1 million COVID cases per day in a few weeks and that the variant mutates to become 100% impervious to vaccines, thus putting us at square one again.

We don't have every state's numbers for today yet, but it looks like we're down several thousand cases compare to last Wednesday. Your pessimism is unwarranted.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #4596 on: June 23, 2021, 05:03:53 PM »

My prediction is that there'll be another wave thanks to the deplorables refusing to get vaccinated. This one will be the worst one.

Not. My. Problem. Anymore.

I got both doses of Pfizer months ago, and if they issue new lockdowns and mask mandates, they're just going to have to cram it. What was the point of getting vaccinated if we can't go right back to normal life right away?
Lockdowns are required to become vaccinated infected who will be vulnerable to breakthrough infections that will begin in a few weeks.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #4597 on: June 23, 2021, 05:04:00 PM »

It looks like the only state that's not doing that great right now is Missouri. But the rest of the Midwest is doing great.
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« Reply #4598 on: June 23, 2021, 05:36:18 PM »

My prediction is that there'll be another wave thanks to the deplorables refusing to get vaccinated. This one will be the worst one.
I agree. It is possible that we end up with 1 million COVID cases per day in a few weeks and that the variant mutates to become 100% impervious to vaccines, thus putting us at square one again.
Okay you are a bad faith troll.
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« Reply #4599 on: June 23, 2021, 05:47:01 PM »
« Edited: June 23, 2021, 05:56:23 PM by Forumlurker »

Also sorry about my early doom post today. That was an emotional reaction that does not stand up to the facts.

Delta Plus is concerning, and it is very possible it is vaccine resistant, but thatís not established.
The K417N mutation is only one of many potential mutations in Beta which lead to reduced immunity. Other prominent ones include N501Y and E484K.
E484K is not in the common (sad I am calling it this) delta variant, and I canít find anything on whether it exist in the delta plus, suggesting not enough evidence has been found to say definitely.
What is in both is E484Q, which could potentially act similar to E484K.

For all we know, the addition of this one mutation may not be enough to tip the scales much at all.

If this holds, I personally as guessing more likely that Deta Plus will look more like Beta, but far more transmissible. This would be bad for sure, and many formerly protected people would be less protected and potentially for a shorter time, but it wouldnít completely wipe out our progress.
It is pretty rare for one mutation to suddenly wipe out all immunity. Letís hope the pattern continues.

(And no I am not qualified to say what will or wonít happen, this is just speculation from someone who doesnít have any experience or education in the field, aka a complete nonexpert)

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