COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron
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  COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron
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Author Topic: COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron  (Read 526264 times)
soundchaser
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« Reply #4525 on: June 21, 2021, 12:47:58 AM »

Where’s the data showing the Delta variant to be more deadly than the Alpha? Deaths are still dropping in the U.K. — they’re down to averaging 11 per day. I simply don’t buy that this is a world-shattering change in the way the Alpha variant was. For the vaccinated, at least.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4526 on: June 21, 2021, 01:22:42 AM »

More contagious, if not having a higher death rate.

The usual pattern is for contagious diseases to mutate into something less quickly lethal but more contagious. Such is a good strategy for survival for an infection. A disease that kills its host and does not infect others has less of a chance to become endemic than one that can stick around living hosts.

It is not clear whether the Delta variant is any less lethal, but it is certainly more contagious. If more people get a slightly-less lethal infection, then more people may get sick and die, depending on the probabilities.   
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emailking
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« Reply #4527 on: June 21, 2021, 03:01:46 AM »

Delta variant is more likely to put a young adult in the hospital, though the chances are still small. If you're vaccinated your chances of that are still very small. This is just what I'm hearing from the doctors on TV.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #4528 on: June 21, 2021, 07:04:33 AM »

Delta variant is more likely to put a young adult in the hospital, though the chances are still small. If you're vaccinated your chances of that are still very small.

In other words, they should stop imposing restrictions on people who are vaccinated.
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emailking
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« Reply #4529 on: June 21, 2021, 07:29:39 AM »

Delta variant is more likely to put a young adult in the hospital, though the chances are still small. If you're vaccinated your chances of that are still very small.

In other words, they should stop imposing restrictions on people who are vaccinated.

I think most of us here already agreed with that.
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GP270watch
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« Reply #4530 on: June 21, 2021, 11:31:39 AM »

"Don't we have an island that we own? What about Guantánamo?" Trump reportedly asked officials assembled in the Situation Room, who were shocked at the idea and dismissed it.

Nightmare Scenario: Inside the Trump Administration's Response to the Pandemic That Changed History," by Washington Post reporters Yasmeen Abutaleb and Damian Paletta.

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Not Me, Us
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« Reply #4531 on: June 21, 2021, 11:56:10 AM »

Delta variant is more likely to put a young adult in the hospital, though the chances are still small. If you're vaccinated your chances of that are still very small.

In other words, they should stop imposing restrictions on people who are vaccinated.

Are there any places still doing that? PA has had strong COVID restrictions throughout the pandemic, but there haven't been any for vaccinated people in like a month. I don't think any state has any restrictions for vaccinated people, though I could be wrong.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #4532 on: June 21, 2021, 12:12:53 PM »

Delta variant is more likely to put a young adult in the hospital, though the chances are still small. If you're vaccinated your chances of that are still very small.

In other words, they should stop imposing restrictions on people who are vaccinated.

Are there any places still doing that? PA has had strong COVID restrictions throughout the pandemic, but there haven't been any for vaccinated people in like a month. I don't think any state has any restrictions for vaccinated people, though I could be wrong.

I believe there are still mask mandates even for vaccinated people at specific locations where there are people at higher risk, such as hospitals and nursing homes.  This may not be true for all states.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #4533 on: June 21, 2021, 04:33:08 PM »

What we could do is very very easy: implement a national vaccine mandate.

It is absurd that we put up with economic shutdowns for months and a mask mandate for over a year, but we are unwilling to mandate something that will literally just inconvenience people for a few hours but solve the problem completely.
I would be all for a nationwide vaccine mandate, but at least judging by its rulings on other cases regarding COVID restrictions, the Supreme Court would strike down a vaccine mandate in a 5-4 ruling.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #4534 on: June 21, 2021, 04:35:00 PM »

Delta variant is more likely to put a young adult in the hospital, though the chances are still small. If you're vaccinated your chances of that are still very small. This is just what I'm hearing from the doctors on TV.

Uhh....


This information about the Delta variant makes me start favoring the reimplementation of preventative lockdowns.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #4535 on: June 21, 2021, 04:36:11 PM »

What we could do is very very easy: implement a national vaccine mandate.

It is absurd that we put up with economic shutdowns for months and a mask mandate for over a year, but we are unwilling to mandate something that will literally just inconvenience people for a few hours but solve the problem completely.
I would be all for a nationwide vaccine mandate, but at least judging by its rulings on other cases regarding COVID restrictions, the Supreme Court would strike down a vaccine mandate in a 5-4 ruling.
Not only would it not be in line with SCOTUS rulings, merely trying to implement it would be a shot in the arm (unintentional pun hahaha) to anti-vax movements and harm the vaccination efforts.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #4536 on: June 21, 2021, 04:58:37 PM »

Uhh....


This information about the Delta variant makes me start favoring the reimplementation of preventative lockdowns.

Anyone drawing strict conclusions from a sample size of 42 out of 33 thousand is delusional. Stop reading Feigl-Ding, for the love of Christ.
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Person Man
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« Reply #4537 on: June 21, 2021, 05:39:20 PM »

What we could do is very very easy: implement a national vaccine mandate.

It is absurd that we put up with economic shutdowns for months and a mask mandate for over a year, but we are unwilling to mandate something that will literally just inconvenience people for a few hours but solve the problem completely.
I would be all for a nationwide vaccine mandate, but at least judging by its rulings on other cases regarding COVID restrictions, the Supreme Court would strike down a vaccine mandate in a 5-4 ruling.

Then let them enforce their ruling.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #4538 on: June 21, 2021, 05:40:10 PM »

Delta variant is more likely to put a young adult in the hospital, though the chances are still small. If you're vaccinated your chances of that are still very small. This is just what I'm hearing from the doctors on TV.

Uhh....


This information about the Delta variant makes me start favoring the reimplementation of preventative lockdowns.

These stats make no sense to me.  They appear to be showing that the overall CFR of the delta variant is only about 0.1%.   That alone seems very unlikely to me, not to mention several other weird anomalies in this table.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #4539 on: June 21, 2021, 09:23:50 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/21 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.
  • These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



6/13: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 34,321,093 (+5,226 | ΔW Change: ↓18.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.02%)
  • Deaths: 615,053 (+16 | ΔW Change: ↓90.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.00%)

6/14: <M>
  • Cases: 34,334,299 (+7,310 [+13,206] | ΔW Change: ↓40.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
  • Deaths: 615,263 (+106 [+210] | ΔW Change: ↓68.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.03%)

6/15: <T>
  • Cases: 34,351,363 (+11,884 [+17,064] | ΔW Change: ↓12.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)
  • Deaths: 615,703 (+341 [+440] | ΔW Change: ↓2.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)

6/16: <W>
  • Cases: 34,365,327 (+12,757 [+13,964] | ΔW Change: ↓10.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
  • Deaths: 616,141 (+352 [+438] | ΔW Change: ↓20.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)

6/17: <Þ>
  • Cases: 34,376,793 (+11,466 | ΔW Change: ↑7.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.03%)
  • Deaths: 616,423 (+282 | ΔW Change: ↓31.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)

6/18: <F>
  • Cases: 34,393,269 (+13,389 [+16,476] | ΔW Change: ↓15.94% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)
  • Deaths: 616,920 (+393 [+497] | ΔW Change: ↓6.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

6/19: <S>
  • Cases: 34,401,712 (+8,443 | ΔW Change: ↓11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.02%)
  • Deaths: 617,083 (+163 | ΔW Change: ↓46.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.03%)

6/20 (Yesterday-Holiday): <Sunday>
  • Cases: 34,406,001 (+4,289 | ΔW Change: ↓17.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.01%)
  • Deaths: 617,166 (+83 | ΔW Change: ↑418.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.01%)

6/21 (Today): <M>
  • Cases: 34,419,838 (+6,609 [+13,837] | ΔW Change: ↓9.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
  • Deaths: 617,463 (+121 [+297] | ΔW Change: ↑14.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #4540 on: June 21, 2021, 10:26:00 PM »

These death swings are wild when the numbers get low, but it looks like we're still moving in the right direction. And yeah, Dr. Feigl-Ding is sadly descending into fear porn.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4541 on: June 21, 2021, 11:19:39 PM »

Obviously as more people get inoculated, fewer people can get infected, get seriously ill, and of course die. We are far removed from the days of 3000+ deaths, when every day was a 9/11 for mass (if dispersed) death. We obviously aren't going back that way.

Statistically we are through theworst, but I would not say that to someone  whose loved one struggles for survival on a ventilator.  
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #4542 on: June 21, 2021, 11:48:05 PM »

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GP270watch
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« Reply #4543 on: June 22, 2021, 12:17:44 PM »

 The Delta variant has to be taken seriously. It's not just the UK, in Israel which leads the world in vaccinations they are seeing clusters around schools developing among the unvaccinated and it is in turn infecting people who have been fully vaccinated. All countries should step up their vaccine efforts and continue tracking/monitoring and lockdowns in breakout areas.

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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #4544 on: June 22, 2021, 01:21:06 PM »

The Delta variant has to be taken seriously. It's not just the UK, in Israel which leads the world in vaccinations they are seeing clusters around schools developing among the unvaccinated and it is in turn infecting people who have been fully vaccinated. All countries should step up their vaccine efforts and continue tracking/monitoring and lockdowns in breakout areas.


I think the Biden administration should try to implement a mandatory one year lockdown on all non essential businesses and implement a permanent mask mandate. That will bring case numbers down to about 50 per day and prevent more serious variants from developing at least in the US.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #4545 on: June 22, 2021, 03:19:28 PM »

The Delta variant has to be taken seriously. It's not just the UK, in Israel which leads the world in vaccinations they are seeing clusters around schools developing among the unvaccinated and it is in turn infecting people who have been fully vaccinated. All countries should step up their vaccine efforts and continue tracking/monitoring and lockdowns in breakout areas.


I think the Biden administration should try to implement a mandatory one year lockdown on all non essential businesses and implement a permanent mask mandate. That will bring case numbers down to about 50 per day and prevent more serious variants from developing at least in the US.

Respectfully: no part of this suggestion would work.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #4546 on: June 22, 2021, 03:55:42 PM »

The Delta variant has to be taken seriously. It's not just the UK, in Israel which leads the world in vaccinations they are seeing clusters around schools developing among the unvaccinated and it is in turn infecting people who have been fully vaccinated. All countries should step up their vaccine efforts and continue tracking/monitoring and lockdowns in breakout areas.


I think the Biden administration should try to implement a mandatory one year lockdown on all non essential businesses and implement a permanent mask mandate. That will bring case numbers down to about 50 per day and prevent more serious variants from developing at least in the US.

Respectfully: no part of this suggestion would work.
It will keep case numbers down and allow the vaccine manufacturers time to develop a better COVID vaccine that can neutralize any potential variants that develop.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #4547 on: June 22, 2021, 04:11:07 PM »

The Delta variant has to be taken seriously. It's not just the UK, in Israel which leads the world in vaccinations they are seeing clusters around schools developing among the unvaccinated and it is in turn infecting people who have been fully vaccinated. All countries should step up their vaccine efforts and continue tracking/monitoring and lockdowns in breakout areas.


I think the Biden administration should try to implement a mandatory one year lockdown on all non essential businesses and implement a permanent mask mandate. That will bring case numbers down to about 50 per day and prevent more serious variants from developing at least in the US.

Respectfully: no part of this suggestion would work.
It will keep case numbers down and allow the vaccine manufacturers time to develop a better COVID vaccine that can neutralize any potential variants that develop.

The vaccines we already have in the US are easily strong enough to fight off any variants we have seen thus far.  Everyone just needs to get them.   A vaccine mandate would be far more effective and far less intrusive than anything you are suggesting.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #4548 on: June 22, 2021, 04:12:14 PM »

We HAVE a vaccine that neutralizes any variants — the mRNA vaccines are still wildly effective against them. And our case numbers are going down already, at a rapid pace.

I understand that you’re concerned about the Delta variant and the virus in general. But try to relax: the data we have continues to show that vaccinated people are almost totally safe.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #4549 on: June 22, 2021, 04:13:14 PM »

What we could do is very very easy: implement a national vaccine mandate.

It is absurd that we put up with economic shutdowns for months and a mask mandate for over a year, but we are unwilling to mandate something that will literally just inconvenience people for a few hours but solve the problem completely.
I would be all for a nationwide vaccine mandate, but at least judging by its rulings on other cases regarding COVID restrictions, the Supreme Court would strike down a vaccine mandate in a 5-4 ruling.
Not only would it not be in line with SCOTUS rulings, merely trying to implement it would be a shot in the arm (unintentional pun hahaha) to anti-vax movements and harm the vaccination efforts.

The Supreme Court has already ruled that vaccine mandates are constitutional.
I would agree that this would have to come from congressional legislation and not a mere executive order to be assured of SC approval.

And how would a vaccine mandate harm vaccination efforts?  It's not like mask mandates led to fewer people wearing masks.  A lot of people were only wearing them because they had to, and took them off as soon as mandates were lifted.  I'm pretty sure the same thing would happen for most vaccine hesitant people.
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