COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 10/22 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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10/11: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,991,069 (+45,564 | ΔW Change: ↑26.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)
• Deaths: 219,695 (+413 | ΔW Change: ↑23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

10/12: <M>

• Cases: 8,037,789 (+46,720 | ΔW Change: ↑9.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 220,011 (+316 | ΔW Change: ↓24.94% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

10/13: <T>

• Cases: 8,090,080 (+52,291 | ΔW Change: ↓2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
• Deaths: 220,841 (+830 | ΔW Change: ↓13.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

10/14: <W>

• Cases: 8,150,043 (+59,963 | ΔW Change: ↑12.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 221,843 (+1,002 | ΔW Change: ↑4.16% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/15: <Þ>

• Cases: 8,216,315 (+66,272 | ΔW Change: ↑15.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.81%)
• Deaths: 222,717 (+874 | ΔW Change: ↓8.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)

10/16: <F>

• Cases: 8,286,824 (+70,509 | ΔW Change: ↑15.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)
• Deaths: 223,625 (+908 | ΔW Change: ↓0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)

10/17: <S>

• Cases: 8,342,665 (+55,841 | ΔW Change: ↑9.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.67%)
• Deaths: 224,282 (+657 | ΔW Change: ↑3.63% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

10/18: <Sunday>

• Cases: 8,387,790 (+45,125 | ΔW Change: ↓0.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 224,730 (+448 | ΔW Change: ↑8.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/19: <M>

• Cases: 8,456,653 (+68,863 | ΔW Change: ↑47.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 225,222 (+492 | ΔW Change: ↑55.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

10/20: <T>

• Cases: 8,519,665 (+63,012 | ΔW Change: ↑17.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.75%)
• Deaths: 226,138 (+916 | ΔW Change: ↑10.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)

10/21 (Yesterday): <W>

• Cases: 8,584,819 (+65,154 | ΔW Change: ↑8.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.76%)
• Deaths: 227,409 (+1,271 | ΔW Change: ↑26.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

10/22 (Today): <Þ>

• Cases: 8,661,651 (+76,832 | ΔW Change: ↑15.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.89%)
• Deaths: 228,381 (+972 | ΔW Change: ↑11.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

[emailking]

Dang. Looks like we could break the cases record tomorrow.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

If anyone on earth can think they can make an informed determination about COVID spread in K-12 schools based on what we know (ESPECIALLY in the US)... yikes. Imagine if we tested K-12 kids as much as we did college students...

No one test gyms, indoor restaurants or barber shops, either, and none of it is essential. Kids' education is. Kids need it supervising badly, esp from poor families.

And, as I said, evidence suggests that re-opening of schools does not worsen the overall situation. So, the only good reason to close school is if there is an actual outbreak in it.

[Alcibiades]

If anyone on earth can think they can make an informed determination about COVID spread in K-12 schools based on what we know (ESPECIALLY in the US)... yikes. Imagine if we tested K-12 kids as much as we did college students...

No one test gyms, indoor restaurants or barber shops, either, and none of it is essential. Kids' education is. Kids need it supervising badly, esp from poor families.

And, as I said, evidence suggests that re-opening of schools does not worsen the overall situation. So, the only good reason to close school is if there is an actual outbreak in it.

To me it seems so odd that many Americans are lukewarm on school reopenings, while in the UK there is (rightfully) a cross-partisan consensus that schools should remain open at all costs, and be the last places to close and the first to reopen.

[Del Tachi]

If anyone on earth can think they can make an informed determination about COVID spread in K-12 schools based on what we know (ESPECIALLY in the US)... yikes. Imagine if we tested K-12 kids as much as we did college students...

No one test gyms, indoor restaurants or barber shops, either, and none of it is essential. Kids' education is. Kids need it supervising badly, esp from poor families.

And, as I said, evidence suggests that re-opening of schools does not worsen the overall situation. So, the only good reason to close school is if there is an actual outbreak in it.

To me it seems so odd that many Americans are lukewarm on school reopenings, while in the UK there is (rightfully) a cross-partisan consensus that schools should remain open at all costs, and be the last places to close and the first to reopen.

You don't understand that the only animating principle of a major American political party is "orange man bad."

[GeorgiaModerate]

If anyone on earth can think they can make an informed determination about COVID spread in K-12 schools based on what we know (ESPECIALLY in the US)... yikes. Imagine if we tested K-12 kids as much as we did college students...

No one test gyms, indoor restaurants or barber shops, either, and none of it is essential. Kids' education is. Kids need it supervising badly, esp from poor families.

And, as I said, evidence suggests that re-opening of schools does not worsen the overall situation. So, the only good reason to close school is if there is an actual outbreak in it.

To me it seems so odd that many Americans are lukewarm on school reopenings, while in the UK there is (rightfully) a cross-partisan consensus that schools should remain open at all costs, and be the last places to close and the first to reopen.

You don't understand that the only animating principle of a major American political party is "orange man bad."

And the other's is "orange man is a god who can do no wrong".

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/apoorva_nyc/status/1319408652311285761

Despite the gathering research, Boston on Wednesday decided to close schools even as restaurants, casinos and gyms remain open. Dr. Jenkins, who has two children, said she was particularly frustrated by the news.

“Children are not being prioritized, and they’re missing out on all the positive things about going to school,” Dr. Jenkins said. “I don’t understand why we’re not as a community getting together and deciding that schools need to be a priority and making them as safe as we can.”

Boston, what are you doing? Casinos!

[emailking]

I think they should try to space the desks and require masks. It sucks, but it's better than another year of remote learning.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think they should try to space the desks and require masks. It sucks, but it's better than another year of remote learning.

Even remote learning would be better than that. But remote learning is still bad.

I also notice that IDEA and the ADA have been completely ignored through all of this.

[It’s so Joever]

I think they should try to space the desks and require masks. It sucks, but it's better than another year of remote learning.

Even remote learning would be better than that. But remote learning is still bad.

I also notice that IDEA and the ADA have been completely ignored through all of this.

Dude, I didn’t even have access to 2/3rds of my classes with the online “option” because our district wanted to disincentivize it. Plus had I chosen the online option I would have lost all my teacher and counselor college recommendations (no joke)
I have a preexisting condition and am being forced to choose between my own health and future because of it.
But sure, talk about accommodating the disabled more if it makes you truthers feel better.

[emailking]

Even remote learning would be better than that. But remote learning is still bad.

Yeah I don't get why you think remote learning is better than masks. At least children could socialize in person.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yeah I don't get why you think remote learning is better than masks.

Sweden is doing decently by not having much of either one.

[emailking]

Yeah I don't get why you think remote learning is better than masks.

Sweden is doing decently by not having much of either one.

Their cases are spiking right now. But it's irrelevant to whether remote learning is better than masks, or not.

[icemanj]

We are going to hit 100k cases a day in 2 weeks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1319788915327381505

[Bandit3 the Worker]

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1319788915327381505

...or until we get the vaccine that was supposed to be here in September.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1319788915327381505

...or until we get the vaccine that was supposed to be here in September.

A vaccine in September was never realistic.  Even having one generally available by next Spring would be unprecedentedly fast development.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Saying we need to “on our own start taking collective action” seems like the very definition of an oxymoron.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So Trump’s response to covid has been utterly deranged, but we probably should have expected this from what has clearly been the worst presidential adminstration in American history.

Nevertheless, I think the apathy and incompetence of Trump has probably had only a marginally negative effect on the awful consequences of this pandemic.

Here are the covid death rates (per million) in the top 10 most populous countries in the western world (Europe and North/South America).

1.) USA - 691
2.) Brazil - 735
3.) Mexico - 683
4.) Germany - 120
5.) UK - 655
6.) France - 528
7.) Italy - 613
8.) Columbia - 584
9.) Spain - 743
10.) Argentina - 625

With the sole exception of Germany, there’s very little distinguishing the outcomes in any of these countries, despite what would appear to be very different attitudes and policies toward fighting the virus.

Really, this has not been a failure of the US.  It has been a failure of western individualist neo-liberal ideology, and even more specifically, the ideology of western medicine.  It is simply not rational in the context of a global pandemic to start from a first principle of extreme loss aversion, as western medicine trains doctors to do.

If we had treated this like a war from the start, rather than a series of millions of individual medical choices, we could have solved this pandemic months ago with a fraction of the death we have already seen.  But a war requires volunteers who are willing to risk their own individual well-being for the benefit of the safety and survival of the whole of society.  Those volunteers were readily available.  You can see almost 40,000 of them (myself included) signed up just on the 1DaySooner website.  But almost any suggestion to go down that path was immediately treated as somehow unthinkable and never even subject to serious discussion.

Once the virus as contagious as this had taken a foothold on our soil, we never stood a chance, as long as we were beholden to the individualist ideologies that made ever considering taking the necessary risks impossible.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 10/23 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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10/11: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,991,069 (+45,564 | ΔW Change: ↑26.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)
• Deaths: 219,695 (+413 | ΔW Change: ↑23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

10/12: <M>

• Cases: 8,037,789 (+46,720 | ΔW Change: ↑9.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 220,011 (+316 | ΔW Change: ↓24.94% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

10/13: <T>

• Cases: 8,090,080 (+52,291 | ΔW Change: ↓2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
• Deaths: 220,841 (+830 | ΔW Change: ↓13.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

10/14: <W>

• Cases: 8,150,043 (+59,963 | ΔW Change: ↑12.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 221,843 (+1,002 | ΔW Change: ↑4.16% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/15: <Þ>

• Cases: 8,216,315 (+66,272 | ΔW Change: ↑15.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.81%)
• Deaths: 222,717 (+874 | ΔW Change: ↓8.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)

10/16: <F>

• Cases: 8,286,824 (+70,509 | ΔW Change: ↑15.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)
• Deaths: 223,625 (+908 | ΔW Change: ↓0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)

10/17: <S>

• Cases: 8,342,665 (+55,841 | ΔW Change: ↑9.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.67%)
• Deaths: 224,282 (+657 | ΔW Change: ↑3.63% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

10/18: <Sunday>

• Cases: 8,387,790 (+45,125 | ΔW Change: ↓0.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 224,730 (+448 | ΔW Change: ↑8.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/19: <M>

• Cases: 8,456,653 (+68,863 | ΔW Change: ↑47.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 225,222 (+492 | ΔW Change: ↑55.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

10/20: <T>

• Cases: 8,519,665 (+63,012 | ΔW Change: ↑17.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.75%)
• Deaths: 226,138 (+916 | ΔW Change: ↑10.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)

10/21: <W>

• Cases: 8,584,819 (+65,154 | ΔW Change: ↑8.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.76%)
• Deaths: 227,409 (+1,271 | ΔW Change: ↑26.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

10/22 (Yesterday): <Þ>

• Cases: 8,661,651 (+76,832 | ΔW Change: ↑15.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.89%)
• Deaths: 228,381 (+972 | ΔW Change: ↑11.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

10/23 (Today): <F>

• Cases: 8,746,953 (+85,302 | ΔW Change: ↑20.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.98%)
• Deaths: 229,284 (+903 | ΔW Change: ↓0.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)

[BlueSwan]

So Trump’s response to covid has been utterly deranged, but we probably should have expected this from what has clearly been the worst presidential adminstration in American history.

Nevertheless, I think the apathy and incompetence of Trump has probably had only a marginally negative effect on the awful consequences of this pandemic.

Here are the covid death rates (per million) in the top 10 most populous countries in the western world (Europe and North/South America).

1.) USA - 691
2.) Brazil - 735
3.) Mexico - 683
4.) Germany - 120
5.) UK - 655
6.) France - 528
7.) Italy - 613
8.) Columbia - 584
9.) Spain - 743
10.) Argentina - 625

With the sole exception of Germany, there’s very little distinguishing the outcomes in any of these countries, despite what would appear to be very different attitudes and policies toward fighting the virus.

Really, this has not been a failure of the US.  It has been a failure of western individualist neo-liberal ideology, and even more specifically, the ideology of western medicine.  It is simply not rational in the context of a global pandemic to start from a first principle of extreme loss aversion, as western medicine trains doctors to do.

If we had treated this like a war from the start, rather than a series of millions of individual medical choices, we could have solved this pandemic months ago with a fraction of the death we have already seen.  But a war requires volunteers who are willing to risk their own individual well-being for the benefit of the safety and survival of the whole of society.  Those volunteers were readily available.  You can see almost 40,000 of them (myself included) signed up just on the 1DaySooner website.  But almost any suggestion to go down that path was immediately treated as somehow unthinkable and never even subject to serious discussion.

Once the virus as contagious as this had taken a foothold on our soil, we never stood a chance, as long as we were beholden to the individualist ideologies that made ever considering taking the necessary risks impossible.

I think those numbers overlook population density as a key explanation of covid spread. The most urban states in the US have the highest death rates in the entire world, whereas the most rural US states have very low numbers. On that list you post, the US as a whole is easily the least densely populated country.

[Tender Branson]

The situation in the neighbouring Czech Republic is nuts:

15.300 new daily infections yesterday (in US terms: 480.000 new daily cases)

126 dead yesterday (in US terms: 4.000 new deaths per day)

Austria had +3.600 new cases yesterday and 11 dead.

[Edu]

On that list you post, the US as a whole is easily the least densely populated country.

Argentina has actually the lowest population density in that list

EDIT: even Brazil has a lowest population density than the US

[BlueSwan]

On that list you post, the US as a whole is easily the least densely populated country.

Argentina has actually the lowest population density in that list

EDIT: even Brazil has a lowest population density than the US

Brazil doesn't really count as large swaths of the country are virtually uninhabited.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

On that list you post, the US as a whole is easily the least densely populated country.

Argentina has actually the lowest population density in that list

EDIT: even Brazil has a lowest population density than the US

Brazil doesn't really count as large swaths of the country are virtually uninhabited.

Thus is true of the US too.  Have you noticed how big Alaska is?
If you don’t count Alaska, the US is more densely populated than Spain, and about equal to France.

In any case, the US states with the higher per capita number of cases (not just now, but over the entire course of the pandemic) are North and South Dakota, so I really don’t this population density is dispositive in the long term.