COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[You are responsible]

snipped for space

While I think the restrictions are an overreach at this point, the vaccine was never going to move the country beyond the pandemic when you still have 30-50 million people who refuse to get vaccinated, which is driving the hospitalization rates.

My 67 year old mother was exposed to an omicron-positive person over the weekend.

My mom was hesitant to get her 2nd shot, but finally got it on December 22nd.

Since it was only 3 weeks ago she got her second shot, shouldn’t she in theory be more likely to have an effective vaccine response if she ended up getting the virus compared to someone who got their 2nd shot months ago?

I’m a bit concerned, but I think the studies show that vaccines work better against amicron if infection happens closer to the time you got your shot.

She is not overweight and is in good health, by the way.

Even if they were a month apart, it's still more protection than being unvaccinated, and if I recall, the main reason for the booster doses in the first place is because immunity wanes, and most people are 6-12 months past their second dose by now, if that's of any help.

In a way, you're correct, although as I've noted, we've seen viral surges and restrictions in countries that have much higher vaccination rates than the United States. I recall reading about Singapore, which has one of the highest vaccination rates on the planet, and yet hasn't returned to a mode of normalcy. That's why I'm not convinced we're going to see the lifting of virtually all restrictions even if the vaccination rate increases further, and even if rates are high.

Yeah we've had strip limits of 5 people social gatherings basicaly this entire pandemic and we're at around 95% vaccinated with 50% boostered.

And in Germany and France, they've had strict mask and vaccine mandates, along with vaccine passports, in force or coming into force. There is no logic for countries that have vaccination rates of 80-90% or more maintaining such restrictions.

Germany's vaccination rate is 73% though.

I was referring to Singapore.

Ah, okay... well, it does seem a bit excessive that Singapore tries to curtail social gatherings to five people max. when Germany does the same with ten people at significantly lower vaccination rates. Then again, that's Singapore for you... they're probably also much stricter at enforcement I gather.

Singapore exemplifies why I'm highly skeptical all restrictions will go away after the pandemic is over. It's becoming even clearer to me that some of these measures will be permanent.

IMO, politicians don't do COVID restrictions for "no reason". Okay, some East Asian countries may differ for cultural reasons, I dunno. Things are already way less strict than they had been exactly one year ago and a year from now there will be even less left of it, if anything at all. I mean, I had the very distinct impression during the last couple of weeks that everything my government is doing right now is to smooth the transition from pandemic to endemic and that's basically it. Slowing down the infection rate of Omicron a bit, so not everybody is getting it at the same time, but stretched out over the next three, four months, especially because you can't have all the police, firefighters, hospital personnel, and bus drivers being struck down by COVID all at the same time (in Berlin, public transportation is planning to scale back the bus routes starting tomorrow, simply because they have begun to run out of bus drivers who aren't sick at the moment).

There's going to be some permanent changes, I'm sure of it. Life is never going to fully return to the conditions of 2019.

Well, life is change. It's unrealistic to expect that everything stays always the same, especially with an almost earth-shattering event like a global pandemic. After WWII there was also no going back to a pre-WWII world. That's how history works. But I expect that I can generally live my life as I did before. Most changes will not come from the government anyway, but from the people, as I already noticed for the past two years when friendships have changed/ended/begun because everybody has developed differing levels of concern and caution, and you start to look for COVID compatibility.

Life is change, which is true. But I'm not looking forward to the permanent changes that this pandemic is bringing about.

This is the new 9/11.

THG has said something similarly. And I have increasingly come to believe that such will be the case. I fully expect for the TSA to extend the federal mask mandate when it is up for renewal, and I fully expect for many elements of the "Covid regime", such as quarantines and mass testing, to become the norm even after the pandemic is declared over. We're going to have relics of this, just like we still have relics of 9/11.

I sincerely doubt that as soon COVID has become fully endemic like the flu people would still be willing to quarantine themselves (or that politicians would be willing to implement such policies for that matter). I mean I know people - and personally I share their fears in that regard - who are terribly afraid of catching COVID simply because they're single and live alone and can't imagine to stay on their own at home for a week or longer without getting crazy. And these are people who are supporting most of the restrictions for the moment.

IMO fears that quarantines become "permanent" are unfounded. Quarantine periods are already increasingly shortened as it stands now. I get it that you consider COVID measures to be a pain in the ass. Pretty much everybody does, even those who consider them necessary for the time being. But exactly because everybody considers them a pain in the ass is why they will be gone eventually.

But of course this whole discussion is a bit moot... we're discussing what we expect or fear to happen at indeterminate points in the future. Since we don't know the future there's not much substance to back up arguments either way. This is about beliefs, not facts.

You seem to be of the belief that we're going to have an almost entirely complete return to normalcy once this is over. I still am not sure that will be of the case. You're right that we can only speculate on what will happen, but given what's transpired to this point, I remain cautious and skeptical. I'm not going to be convinced otherwise unless things are actually loosened up and for good this time.

Maybe another point - that is based on facts - regarding your belief that quarantine rules will remain in place even after the pandemic. I think that's logically impossible. With the infection rates we've got now, quarantine rules are already loosened because otherwise infrastructure couldn't be maintained any longer. As soon as a full endemic state is reached I assume seven-day incidences of 10,000 or much more will become the norm. And at the end of the time you can't place half the country under quarantine, especially on a semi-permanent basis. Society would break down. You seem to underestimate the usual prevelance of the common cold and the flu and that we'll  getting there too with regards to COVID once there's a true endemic state.

[ProudModerate2]

Video: 5-year-old does all this after school to protect her siblings from Covid-19.

Click here to watch ... https://us.cnn.com/videos/health/2022/01/19/parents-back-to-school-omicron-covid-19-concerns-orig-llr-mss.cnn

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

It's just maddening to me that so many people have had their minds "screwed up" by this pandemic and the response to it.

A lot of this was caused by TV.

True. My stepmother loves to watch TV, particularly programs such as The View, the CBS Evening News with Norah O'Donnell, and ABC World News Tonight with David Muir. And these programs (the Evening News programs in particular), tend to highlight the most depressing and heartbreaking aspects of the pandemic, with regards to severe outlier cases of COVID, hospitalizations, and of course deaths. They bring on Dr. Fauci, Dr. Walensky, Dr. Murthy, and other public health experts frequently. It's not wrong to consult them, but these individuals certainly aren't the best messengers and haven't been the most consistent.

Yeah, I’ve found it best not to watch the nightly news, tbh. I thought this before Covid too. Seems like it’s just “So and so got shot in (bad neighborhood)” and “Bad car crash on dangerous section of road” or if you’re looking at a wider scale, “School shooting in (random suburb that no one has ever heard of)” or “Natural disaster in (third world country)”.

[GeorgiaModerate]

OK, this is funny:

https://twitter.com/ArtMemeLord/status/1483259083541164034

[MATTROSE94]

It's just maddening to me that so many people have had their minds "screwed up" by this pandemic and the response to it.

A lot of this was caused by TV.

True. My stepmother loves to watch TV, particularly programs such as The View, the CBS Evening News with Norah O'Donnell, and ABC World News Tonight with David Muir. And these programs (the Evening News programs in particular), tend to highlight the most depressing and heartbreaking aspects of the pandemic, with regards to severe outlier cases of COVID, hospitalizations, and of course deaths. They bring on Dr. Fauci, Dr. Walensky, Dr. Murthy, and other public health experts frequently. It's not wrong to consult them, but these individuals certainly aren't the best messengers and haven't been the most consistent.

CNN does that a lot as well at least in particular on programs hosted by Don Lemon, Poppy Harlow, Brianna Keilar, Brian Seltzer, Kaitlin Collins, SE Cupp, and Kate Baldwin.

[GregTheGreat657]

We need normalcy now!

[DaleCooper]

Today's quirky stylization of the Google logo is a call for people to wear masks. It doesn't affect me so I'm not complaining, but it seems to fit in with the growing institutional push for re-embrace masking these days.

[You are responsible]

We need normalcy now!

That's exactly what I thought on every day between November 9, 2016 and November 4, 2020.

[Calthrina950]

It's just maddening to me that so many people have had their minds "screwed up" by this pandemic and the response to it.

A lot of this was caused by TV.

True. My stepmother loves to watch TV, particularly programs such as The View, the CBS Evening News with Norah O'Donnell, and ABC World News Tonight with David Muir. And these programs (the Evening News programs in particular), tend to highlight the most depressing and heartbreaking aspects of the pandemic, with regards to severe outlier cases of COVID, hospitalizations, and of course deaths. They bring on Dr. Fauci, Dr. Walensky, Dr. Murthy, and other public health experts frequently. It's not wrong to consult them, but these individuals certainly aren't the best messengers and haven't been the most consistent.

Yeah, I’ve found it best not to watch the nightly news, tbh. I thought this before Covid too. Seems like it’s just “So and so got shot in (bad neighborhood)” and “Bad car crash on dangerous section of road” or if you’re looking at a wider scale, “School shooting in (random suburb that no one has ever heard of)” or “Natural disaster in (third world country)”.

You're right. These programs are very sensationalist and are driven by a desire for profits and ratings, which has greatly influenced their coverage of the pandemic and of other issues.

[Doomer]

We need normalcy now!

Normalcy has been rejected by Republican anti-vaxxers who refuse to get the shot and whose actions demand a prolonged pandemic.

[DINGO Joe]

We need normalcy now!

Please tell everyone to stop filling the hospitals and dying, because the death rate is pretty far from normal.

[Pericles]

It looks like the Omicron wave has just peaked nationally anyway, so hopefully the US will be in a much better position soon.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Tennessee's health commissioner said today that Omicron has peaked in the cities and will soon peak in the rural areas.  Judging from other places, that would mean that it could vanish by mid-February.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Last winter's peak in the U.S. was on Jan. 11. This winter's peak was on Jan. 13. But I'm sure it's different from state to state.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Last winter's peak in the U.S. was on Jan. 11. This winter's peak was on Jan. 13. But I'm sure it's different from state to state.

There being the significant difference that 2020-21's winter wave was elongated but less sharp, while 2021-22's will be very short-lived but very sharp.  In other words, cases in mid-December and (I hypothesize) mid-February were/will be much lower this winter than last, but the opposite is true in mid-January.

[emailking]

Omicron is now 99.5% of USA cases and there were 2300 deaths today. Are we still going with this is almost all Delta, and the super mild Omicron is causing negligible deaths?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Omicron is now 99.5% of USA cases and there were 2300 deaths today. Are we still going with this is almost all Delta, and the super mild Omicron is causing negligible deaths?

Most of the deaths are people who caught it a long time ago, so they would have to be Delta.

Also, my spreadsheet document says deaths divided by known cases is down to 0.2%. It was 0.6% as recently as Christmas.

[emailking]

Most of the deaths are people who caught it a long time ago, so they would have to be Delta.

How do we know that?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Omicron is now 99.5% of USA cases and there were 2300 deaths today. Are we still going with this is almost all Delta, and the super mild Omicron is causing negligible deaths?

It was a mistake to assume that Omicron wasn't deadly.

[Hammy]

Omicron is now 99.5% of USA cases and there were 2300 deaths today. Are we still going with this is almost all Delta, and the super mild Omicron is causing negligible deaths?

It's not as straight forward or black and white as that. Deaths were already trending on the rise before Omicron, and cases were also starting to increase already due to Christmas shopping, gatherings, etc. We also have 120 million people who have not been vaccinated who are around 20x likely to die vs those vaccinated.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Omicron is now 99.5% of USA cases and there were 2300 deaths today. Are we still going with this is almost all Delta, and the super mild Omicron is causing negligible deaths?

Cases have risen almost 1000% compared to pre-Christmas while deaths have risen maybe 50%.  On its face this seems much, much less deadly to me.

And this isn’t even considering whether the people dying are vaccinated or not.  If you are choosing not to get vaccinated, dying of covid should be classified as a suicide.

[emailking]

Not disputing that it's less deadly, just that it's nothing to worry about. The data doesn't seem to be bearing that out. And no they're not suicides.

[Doomer]

Not disputing that it's less deadly, just that it's nothing to worry about. The data doesn't seem to be bearing that out. And no they're not suicides.

If you say anything on this forum about anything that isn't extremely positive, some posters will call you a doomer and try to shut you up.  (The doomers were right about Trump trying to perform a coup, and people here tried to downplay it and shame us for even suggesting he'd attempt one.)

It does seem to be less deadly.  It does seem to be less severe.  These are good things.  It's still covid, and it isn't a simple flu/cold for everyone.  People are still dying needlessly.  People are still getting terrible cases of it.  There is some light here but there is also some dark and we should all be adult enough to discuss it.

[Ferguson97]

We need normalcy now!

We have had normalcy for several months!

[Donerail]

We need normalcy now!

We have had normalcy for several months!

what are you talking about