COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Hammy]

It will never, ever cease to amaze me that with all of our modern technology, this pandemic is going to end up lasting longer than the 1918 pandemic.

Why has that happened?

A lot more international travel than in 1918--not just in volume, but general ease of travel, as well as being much quicker thanks to air travel--is a big reason for that. So in a twist of irony, that same modern travel has allowed it to ripple around the world a lot more quickly.

How long do you think the pandemic is going to last for? We're nearly two years into it now. I sure hope that we still won't be in "pandemic mode" by 2024.

I can't say for sure, I would say there will probably be waves for another year or two at most if I had to make a guess--each one increasingly less severe. The mortality rate of omicron vs delta is somewhere between 0.5% and 10% (depending on which study you look at) which is quite a significant evolution towards an end.

There was one from 1890-94 that is widely suspected to be a coronavirus (in fact one of the ancestors of today's common cold) and it had become endemic and mild by the fourth year. That said I don't think there will necessarily be a specific point in which it ends (it's not like the signing of a treaty to end a war obviously) so, save for social media sensationalism, it'll more likely simply slip from most of the public consciousness.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I actually suspect we had a coronavirus pandemic in the late 1980s. I remember a time there where there was definitely something going around for probably several years.

[roxas11]

It will never, ever cease to amaze me that with all of our modern technology, this pandemic is going to end up lasting longer than the 1918 pandemic.

That so called modern technology is what is causing us so may problems in the first place because The negative misinformation about vaccines on Facebook spread to the American public much faster than Delta or Omicron ever did

Luckily for the people who lived thru the 1918 pandemic Facebook and social media did not exist back then otherwise that pandemic would have also lasted a lot longer.

I just think that it not longer possible for America or the world to do anything when it comes to stopping the spread of any future virus unless people are willing to finally do something about the massive disinformation campaign that is happening on these social media websites

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Going forward, I would support a mask culture similar to what is already the culture in many Asian countries, which is that you should wear a mask in public if you are feeling sick.  No one should object to anyone who wants to wear a mask more often, but also no one should feel pressured to wear a mask if they are healthy.

People should expect to get a covid shot alongside their flu shot every year for the forseeable future.

And I think the increased attention to hand washing is a good thing that should stick around.

Beyond that, I don’t think the average person should need to do anything more to avoid covid.

[Hammy]

Going forward, I would support a mask culture similar to what is already the culture in many Asian countries, which is that you should wear a mask in public if you are feeling sick.  No one should object to anyone who wants to wear a mask more often, but also no one should feel pressured to wear a mask if they are healthy.

People should expect to get a covid shot alongside their flu shot every year for the forseeable future.

And I think the increased attention to hand washing is a good thing that should stick around.

Beyond that, I don’t think the average person should need to do anything more to avoid covid.

This is probably the most rational post on this entire thread.

[lfromnj]

Texas mother allegedly put son in trunk of car to avoid being exposed to Covid-19.

A Texas mother has been charged with endangering a child after she allegedly placed her 13-year-old son, who had Covid-19, into her car's trunk to avoid being exposed to the virus, according to a warrant from the Harris County District Attorney's Office.

Sarah Beam, 41, was charged after authorities arrived at a Houston-area Covid testing site on January 3 following a report that a health services official had found the child in trunk of Beam's car. According to the warrant, the director of health services stated she was gathering information from cars in a line for Covid testing when "she found a female driver, later identified as Sarah Beam, having her child in the trunk of her car."

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/10/us/texas-mother-son-trunk-covid-19/?iid=ob_lockedrail_topeditorial

What the hell is this?
Is she nuts?

Anyone, and I mean anyone who is worth their salt and possesses even a modicum of psychoanalytic knowledge knows that you’re inevitably going to get cases like that if you ceaselessly (quite literally every single day) subject an entire populace to fear and hysteria in a manner that’s completely, utterly disproportionate to the matter at hand. You don’t need a PhD in Psychology or have read Gustave Le Bon or George Orwell to predict how certain individuals will behave in an environment like that! Now, of course we’re supposed to react to this story the same way Gotfan, computocomp, etc. want us to react to other cases of this kind, mask mandates, school closures, businesses going bankrupt, families being torn apart, mental health disorders in general proliferating during this pandemic, etc.: classify it as "collateral damage" amidst a broader good cause and a slight incovenience/outlier in a "necessary new normal" borne out by and in fact necessitated by science.

When the same people indifferent to and supportive of this gradual erasure of empathy, critical thinking, and levelheadedness call those who dare entertain a return to a normalcy which at least allowed us to breathe normally "sociopaths," it’s not that hard to figure out where their fondness for the designation "sociopath" comes from. I sincerely don’t mean this in any polemic way when I say that many of these individuals are very, very sick — this, while of course very tragic, frankly wouldn’t be any of our business if it were confined to three or four individuals on an obscure online forum and not of a mindset that likewise pervades some of the highest positions of government. As evidenced by this thread, the former will have no qualms about displaying their abject views and (for once in their lives) feel worthy/listened to/in control as long as they feel protected by the latter, which is why the only way to deal with both is to strip enough of the latter of their power (which, one can only hope, will happen in this year's elections). I mean, I’m just a Manic Montanan who’s fine with killing all his grandmas, but trust me, I very much prefer that to any of their issues.

In a more depressing note, not only is this women a teacher but she has also received a show of support from her community.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/texas-mom-son-covid-positive-trunk-community-support

How much does everyone want to bet she was writing her will in August 2020 and posting about it in public because she had to go back to school

(Obviously nothing is wrong with writing a will, but posting about it publicly for political points was cringe)

[Can't Bear]

Going forward, I would support a mask culture similar to what is already the culture in many Asian countries, which is that you should wear a mask in public if you are feeling sick.  No one should object to anyone who wants to wear a mask more often, but also no one should feel pressured to wear a mask if they are healthy.

People should stay home, if they feel sick. How difficult is this? Disgusting to see sick people in public spaces.

By the way, there has been an improvement on that thanks to Corona.

People should expect to get a covid shot alongside their flu shot every year for the forseeable future.

Not necessary. I don't know why people think 2 is a magic number. There is some (a lot of?)vaccines, that need more than 2 doses. Polio needs 4 for instance.

It depends if we want to stop spreading or to stop hospitalizations. As I said earlier* 2 doses are still super efficient for the later for healthy "young" (<50 years old) people.

And I think the increased attention to hand washing is a good thing that should stick around.

Yeah, this together with that people has actually learned to stay home when feeling sick are one of few good things Covid brought.  mRNA vaccines breakthrough is the another important thing. New era of  mRNA vaccines might be a game-changer.

Beyond that, I don’t think the average person should need to do anything more to avoid covid.

Agreed.




* data from UK May-Dec 2021


As you see among 2-doses vaccinated people under 50 years, critical care admission rate is ~1 (one) per million! But even this 1 per million is very likely is person with 1 or more comorbidities.

Booster is absolutely a must for elder or vulnerable population, but the reasoning behind decision to boost younger healthy people was to stop the spread. But it seems, it's not very effective to stop Omicron, for instance. It will likely change with Omicron-specific booster, but is it really way to go?

[pbrower2a]

It will never, ever cease to amaze me that with all of our modern technology, this pandemic is going to end up lasting longer than the 1918 pandemic.

Why has that happened?

A lot more international travel than in 1918--not just in volume, but general ease of travel, as well as being much quicker thanks to air travel--is a big reason for that. So in a twist of irony, that same modern travel has allowed it to ripple around the world a lot more quickly.

How long do you think the pandemic is going to last for? We're nearly two years into it now. I sure hope that we still won't be in "pandemic mode" by 2024.

For me to be satisfied that COVID-19 is no longer a threat, the Omicron variant must dwindle without becoming another threat as another variant. Because of the heritage of SARS-2, the virus behind COVID-19, we must assume the worst.

Samples of the 1918 flu virus behind the last analogous pandemic attacking the respiratory tract have been injected in mice -- who of course died of the virus. I'm ready to claim that COVID-19 is no longer threat the first time that a related virus becomes a triviality.  Even without causing death, SARS-2 can cause diabetes, organ damage, cognitive loss (in essence, stupidity), stillbirths, and sexual dysfunction. None of these is desirable, to put it tamely.

We could get a respite, but that has yet to appear. Enough people have failed to get inoculated that the horrible disease can kill and cripple.

[Horus]

It will never, ever cease to amaze me that with all of our modern technology, this pandemic is going to end up lasting longer than the 1918 pandemic.

Why has that happened?

A lot more international travel than in 1918--not just in volume, but general ease of travel, as well as being much quicker thanks to air travel--is a big reason for that. So in a twist of irony, that same modern travel has allowed it to ripple around the world a lot more quickly.

How long do you think the pandemic is going to last for? We're nearly two years into it now. I sure hope that we still won't be in "pandemic mode" by 2024.

For me to be satisfied that COVID-19 is no longer a threat, the Omicron variant must dwindle without becoming another threat as another variant. Because of the heritage of SARS-2, the virus behind COVID-19, we must assume the worst.

Samples of the 1918 flu virus behind the last analogous pandemic attacking the respiratory tract have been injected in mice -- who of course died of the virus. I'm ready to claim that COVID-19 is no longer threat the first time that a related virus becomes a triviality.  Even without causing death, SARS-2 can cause diabetes, organ damage, cognitive loss (in essence, stupidity), stillbirths, and sexual dysfunction. None of these is desirable, to put it tamely.

We could get a respite, but that has yet to appear. Enough people have failed to get inoculated that the horrible disease can kill and cripple.

Nah.

[Can't Bear]

https://twitter.com/RickFolbaum/status/1481110981099065344

[ilikeverin]

It's okay to stop panicking now:

Omicron may be headed for a rapid drop in US and Britain
----------------

And on a separate note, thanks for changing the thread title Virginia! 

I find it odd that the only numbers actually cited are simulations, but we've had a couple of days of promising numbers from DC... one of the first cities that was badly affected by Omicron, and it's had a couple of days with sharp week-to-week drops in numbers reported.

[Calthrina950]

It's okay to stop panicking now:

Omicron may be headed for a rapid drop in US and Britain
----------------

And on a separate note, thanks for changing the thread title Virginia! 

I find it odd that the only numbers actually cited are simulations, but we've had a couple of days of promising numbers from DC... one of the first cities that was badly affected by Omicron, and it's had a couple of days with sharp week-to-week drops in numbers reported.

If DC is on a downwards trajectory, then why are they doubling down on restrictions such as mask mandates and vaccine passports?

[compucomp]

Keeping schools open is an admirable goal. I think remote learning in general is much less effective than in-person learning. But this is easier said than done; as always the virus couldn't care less what we want. Remote learning is probably better than a hellscape of random substitute teachers, classes replaced by study halls because they can't find enough teachers, and everything consumed by COVID and testing. Parents and students have responded to this by calling for return to remote learning. I think every reasonable effort must be made to get kids in school but the current conditions mean a remote option really should be considered.

https://www.nj.com/education/2022/01/parents-in-one-of-njs-largest-districts-push-for-virtual-option-amid-covid-spike.html

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/589349-students-threaten-to-boycott-classes-in

https://www.reddit.com/r/nyc/comments/rxwnbl/i_am_a_new_york_city_public_high_school_student/

Follow up on that reddit post: https://slate.com/human-interest/2022/01/schools-open-closed-omicron-covid-staffing-shortages.html

https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/whitmer-signs-new-michigan-law-allowing-public-schools-to-use-non-teaching-staff-as-substitutes

[Mr. Illini]

Chicago posted its first week of declining case rates (ending 1/8). This is positive news.

The death rate (lagging figure) is on the rise, up to about 80% of last winter's peak. Case rates peaked at about double last winter's peak, so more case will inevitably mean more hospitalizations/deaths, even with a milder variant.

Still, it seems the US has not been able to stave off the essentially lack of any rise in hospitalizations/deaths that South Africa saw with their Omicron wave. Probably as a result of lower vaccination rates and an older/less healthy population.

[DINGO Joe]

Chicago posted its first week of declining case rates (ending 1/8). This is positive news.

The death rate (lagging figure) is on the rise, up to about 80% of last winter's peak. Case rates peaked at about double last winter's peak, so more case will inevitably mean more hospitalizations/deaths, even with a milder variant.

Still, it seems the US has not been able to stave off the essentially lack of any rise in hospitalizations/deaths that South Africa saw with their Omicron wave. Probably as a result of lower vaccination rates and an older/less healthy population.

I would assume that deaths are still being driven by Delta, though I don't know that they can truly screen out one for the other  on a death by death basis.

Before the vaccines, the age group with the largest number of deaths was 85 and over.  I think the last time that age group led in deaths was March or Feb.  In fact they dropped to 4th even behind the 50-64 age group and that has continued through Dec, so it seems the vaccine has still held up thus far for the most vulnerable group to a new variant.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Day 3 of Omicron and I'm already doing way better.  Fever is completely gone, nausea is completely gone, and I'm just back to the sore throat from day 1.  Praise be Joe Biden and Johnson+Johnson.

[Can't Bear]

Day 3 of Omicron and I'm already doing way better.  Fever is completely gone, nausea is completely gone, and I'm just back to the sore throat from day 1.  Praise be Joe Biden and Johnson+Johnson.

This inept administration has totally ed up, but Trump's vaccine save you. NICE! More and more Americans start to realize that.

https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1481345207069257738

[Can't Bear]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1481269869567950848

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Day 3 of Omicron and I'm already doing way better.  Fever is completely gone, nausea is completely gone, and I'm just back to the sore throat from day 1.  Praise be Joe Biden and Johnson+Johnson.

Took that long? Mine (scratchy throat that I think was caused more by the medical mask) didn't even last a day without the protection. Weakest cold ever. Praise my beautiful blood cells or whatever.

I only knew I had it because every triple vaxxed co-worker panic texted the group chat one-by-one about how they were completely knocked out by it so I should get tested.

[Doomer]

Day 3 of Omicron and I'm already doing way better.  Fever is completely gone, nausea is completely gone, and I'm just back to the sore throat from day 1.  Praise be Joe Biden and Johnson+Johnson.

Took that long? Mine (scratchy throat that I think was caused more by the medical mask) didn't even last a day without the protection. Weakest cold ever. Praise my beautiful blood cells or whatever.

I only knew I had it because every triple vaxxed co-worker panic texted the group chat one-by-one about how they were completely knocked out by it so I should get tested.

Meanwhile I had all the symptoms of Omicron, with a timeline of the onset of symptoms matching perfectly with what boosted people get, and I tested negative.

Ngl, I was a little disappointed it wasn’t Omicron so that I could just get it over with.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Day 3 of Omicron and I'm already doing way better.  Fever is completely gone, nausea is completely gone, and I'm just back to the sore throat from day 1.  Praise be Joe Biden and Johnson+Johnson.

Took that long? Mine (scratchy throat that I think was caused more by the medical mask) didn't even last a day without the protection. Weakest cold ever. Praise my beautiful blood cells or whatever.

I only knew I had it because every triple vaxxed co-worker panic texted the group chat one-by-one about how they were completely knocked out by it so I should get tested.

Meanwhile I had all the symptoms of Omicron, with a timeline of the onset of symptoms matching perfectly with what boosted people get, and I tested negative.

Ngl, I was a little disappointed it wasn’t Omicron so that I could just get it over with.

I still haven't gotten my test back from Friday.  Meanwhile my friend, who gave it to me on Thursday, got tested the next day with both Rapid and PCR tests.  The Rapid test came back positive, but the PCR came back negative.  This despite him getting a positive PCR two days earlier.  There are some serious issues with these tests.

[Migrant Crime]

https://twitter.com/CDCDirector/status/1481315911843856387

Thank you Dr. Rochelle, very cool!

Of course, it makes even less sense than ever to force young, healthy people to get vaccinated.  That won't be the takeaway by the CDC though.  A lot of $$$ on the line for big pharma.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/CDCDirector/status/1481315911843856387

Thank you Dr. Rochelle, very cool!

Of course, it makes even less sense than ever to force young, healthy people to get vaccinated.  That won't be the takeaway by the CDC though.  A lot of $$$ on the line for big pharma.

 California has some of the highest vaccination rates among large states already, you do realize that this data of less severe infection is a reality of this.

 84% of all eligible Californians have at least 1 shot and 67% have a full dose.

Very next tweet

https://twitter.com/CDCDirector/status/1481315913773338626

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/CDCDirector/status/1481315911843856387

Thank you Dr. Rochelle, very cool!

Of course, it makes even less sense than ever to force young, healthy people to get vaccinated.  That won't be the takeaway by the CDC though.  A lot of $$$ on the line for big pharma.

 California has some of the highest vaccination rates among large states already, you do realize that this data of less severe infection is a reality of this.

 84% of all eligible Californians have at least 1 shot and 67% have a full dose.

California's relatively high vaccination rate should mean then, that places like Sonoma County should not be issuing voluntary stay-at-home orders, nor was it necessary for the state to have reimposed its mask mandate.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/CDCDirector/status/1481315911843856387

Thank you Dr. Rochelle, very cool!

Of course, it makes even less sense than ever to force young, healthy people to get vaccinated.  That won't be the takeaway by the CDC though.  A lot of $$$ on the line for big pharma.

 California has some of the highest vaccination rates among large states already, you do realize that this data of less severe infection is a reality of this.

 84% of all eligible Californians have at least 1 shot and 67% have a full dose.

California's relatively high vaccination rate should mean then, that places like Sonoma County should not be issuing voluntary stay-at-home orders, nor was it necessary for the state to have reimposed its mask mandate.

 read her very next tweet that I posted above.