COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[MATTROSE94]

Obviously a mask mandate is much less onerous than any sort of shutdown.  But wearing a mask every day is still much more onerous and much less effective than just getting vaccinated.  So reimplementing a mask mandate before we implement a vaccine mandate would be inexcusable.

A vaccine mandate would be struck down 5-4 on the Supreme Court, would likely include exemptions, and would serve as a literal shot in the arm to the anti vaxxer movement. On the other hand, a National mask mandate would be much easier to enforce and would be deemed as Constitutional.

People keep saying a vaccine mandate would be struck down without any sort of evidence.  There are plenty of vaccine mandates in place now and they’ve always been upheld when they have been tested.   And a mask mandate would not be easier to enforce because you have to keep enforcing it all the time everywhere.  You only need to get the vaccine twice.

As has been said, the vaccine is far more effective and far more convenient in combatting the pandemic than masks are. I'm not sure why some people seem to be convinced that it is the other way. You have a noticeable number of fully vaccinated people still wearing masks when it is not absolutely necessary, and you have some who still doubt the vaccine's efficacy in general.

A high-quality, multi-layer mask is 97.5% effective at stopping COVID, a lot more effective than the 60-93% efficacy of the vaccines on non-Delta Variants.

[Calthrina950]

Obviously a mask mandate is much less onerous than any sort of shutdown.  But wearing a mask every day is still much more onerous and much less effective than just getting vaccinated.  So reimplementing a mask mandate before we implement a vaccine mandate would be inexcusable.

A vaccine mandate would be struck down 5-4 on the Supreme Court, would likely include exemptions, and would serve as a literal shot in the arm to the anti vaxxer movement. On the other hand, a National mask mandate would be much easier to enforce and would be deemed as Constitutional.

People keep saying a vaccine mandate would be struck down without any sort of evidence.  There are plenty of vaccine mandates in place now and they’ve always been upheld when they have been tested.   And a mask mandate would not be easier to enforce because you have to keep enforcing it all the time everywhere.  You only need to get the vaccine twice.

As has been said, the vaccine is far more effective and far more convenient in combatting the pandemic than masks are. I'm not sure why some people seem to be convinced that it is the other way. You have a noticeable number of fully vaccinated people still wearing masks when it is not absolutely necessary, and you have some who still doubt the vaccine's efficacy in general.

A high-quality, multi-layer mask is 97.5% effective at stopping COVID, a lot more effective than the 60-93% efficacy of the vaccines on non-Delta Variants.

Where do you get this? Are you seriously saying that we should be permanently wearing masks? Why do you think our public health and government officials have been so adamant on people getting vaccinated? Why have so many seen vaccinations as a way out of the pandemic? Like I've said before, we shouldn't allow for the precautions taken earlier in the pandemic to become the norm.

[It’s so Joever]

Are colleges and universities going to keep punishing students for attending parties that are off campus and are not at school-sponsored events?

The only thing dumber than this is the fact that more schools weren't sued over it.

They were right to do it last year and winter.
It’s just like if a student was caught selling drugs on campus, the college has every right to expel them.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It’s just like if a student was caught selling drugs on campus, the college has every right to expel them.

But the stuff I'm talking about didn't even happen on campus.

[It’s so Joever]

It’s just like if a student was caught selling drugs on campus, the college has every right to expel them.

But the stuff I'm talking about didn't even happen on campus.

Fair point.
Although I’m guessing the school could easily make the argument it still does directly impact on campus safety if the parties occurred during the academic year.

[jamestroll]

I hate servers! I hate teachers! and all the other lazy people who are using covid as an excuse to not return to work!

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/27 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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6/20 (Holiday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 34,406,001 (+4,289 | ΔW Change: ↓17.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.01%)
• Deaths: 617,166 (+83 | ΔW Change: ↑418.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.01%)

6/21: <M>

• Cases: 34,419,838 (+6,609 [+13,837] | ΔW Change: ↓9.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
• Deaths: 617,463 (+121 [+297] | ΔW Change: ↑14.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)

6/22: <T>

• Cases: 34,433,696 (+9,898 [+13,858] | ΔW Change: ↓16.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
• Deaths: 617,864 (+335 [+401] | ΔW Change: ↓1.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.06%)

6/23: <W>

• Cases: 34,449,004 (+12,942 [+15,308] | ΔW Change: ↑1.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
• Deaths: 618,294 (+326 [+430] | ΔW Change: ↓7.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)

6/24: <Þ>

• Cases: 34,464,956 (+13,365 [+15,952] | ΔW Change: ↑16.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)
• Deaths: 618,685 (+329 [+391] | ΔW Change: ↑16.67% | Σ Increase: ↑0.06%)

6/25: <F>

• Cases: 34,482,672 (+15,537 [+17,716] | ΔW Change: ↑16.04% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)
• Deaths: 619,152 (+387 [+467] | ΔW Change: ↑1.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

6/26 (Yesterday): <S>

• Cases: 34,490,134 (+7,462 | ΔW Change: ↓11.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.02%)
• Deaths: 619,343 (+150 [+191] | ΔW Change: ↓7.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.03%)

6/27 (Today-Last Sunday Holiday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 34,494,677 (+4,543 | ΔW Change: ↑5.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.01%)
• Deaths: 619,424 (+81 | ΔW Change: ↓2.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.01%)

[Hammy]

It’s just like if a student was caught selling drugs on campus, the college has every right to expel them.

But the stuff I'm talking about didn't even happen on campus.

I agree with their policy until vaccines are mandatory, because in this case what they do off campus ends up being brought on campus.

[Person Man]

It’s just like if a student was caught selling drugs on campus, the college has every right to expel them.

But the stuff I'm talking about didn't even happen on campus.

I agree with their policy until vaccines are mandatory, because in this case what they do off campus ends up being brought on campus.

In both cases, the student is recklessly or willfully distributing dangerous or at least disruptive/annoying things to other residents of the campus.

[MATTROSE94]

Obviously a mask mandate is much less onerous than any sort of shutdown.  But wearing a mask every day is still much more onerous and much less effective than just getting vaccinated.  So reimplementing a mask mandate before we implement a vaccine mandate would be inexcusable.

A vaccine mandate would be struck down 5-4 on the Supreme Court, would likely include exemptions, and would serve as a literal shot in the arm to the anti vaxxer movement. On the other hand, a National mask mandate would be much easier to enforce and would be deemed as Constitutional.

People keep saying a vaccine mandate would be struck down without any sort of evidence.  There are plenty of vaccine mandates in place now and they’ve always been upheld when they have been tested.   And a mask mandate would not be easier to enforce because you have to keep enforcing it all the time everywhere.  You only need to get the vaccine twice.

As has been said, the vaccine is far more effective and far more convenient in combatting the pandemic than masks are. I'm not sure why some people seem to be convinced that it is the other way. You have a noticeable number of fully vaccinated people still wearing masks when it is not absolutely necessary, and you have some who still doubt the vaccine's efficacy in general.

A high-quality, multi-layer mask is 97.5% effective at stopping COVID, a lot more effective than the 60-93% efficacy of the vaccines on non-Delta Variants.

Where do you get this? Are you seriously saying that we should be permanently wearing masks? Why do you think our public health and government officials have been so adamant on people getting vaccinated? Why have so many seen vaccinations as a way out of the pandemic? Like I've said before, we shouldn't allow for the precautions taken earlier in the pandemic to become the norm.

Yes. I think permanent masking is a great idea in the Delta Variant phase of COVID. I don’t want to see what happened in India occur in the US and feel that all vaccinated people should still wear their masks considering that the vaccines aren’t 100% effective.

[LabourJersey]

Obviously a mask mandate is much less onerous than any sort of shutdown.  But wearing a mask every day is still much more onerous and much less effective than just getting vaccinated.  So reimplementing a mask mandate before we implement a vaccine mandate would be inexcusable.

A vaccine mandate would be struck down 5-4 on the Supreme Court, would likely include exemptions, and would serve as a literal shot in the arm to the anti vaxxer movement. On the other hand, a National mask mandate would be much easier to enforce and would be deemed as Constitutional.

People keep saying a vaccine mandate would be struck down without any sort of evidence.  There are plenty of vaccine mandates in place now and they’ve always been upheld when they have been tested.   And a mask mandate would not be easier to enforce because you have to keep enforcing it all the time everywhere.  You only need to get the vaccine twice.

As has been said, the vaccine is far more effective and far more convenient in combatting the pandemic than masks are. I'm not sure why some people seem to be convinced that it is the other way. You have a noticeable number of fully vaccinated people still wearing masks when it is not absolutely necessary, and you have some who still doubt the vaccine's efficacy in general.

A high-quality, multi-layer mask is 97.5% effective at stopping COVID, a lot more effective than the 60-93% efficacy of the vaccines on non-Delta Variants.

Where do you get this? Are you seriously saying that we should be permanently wearing masks? Why do you think our public health and government officials have been so adamant on people getting vaccinated? Why have so many seen vaccinations as a way out of the pandemic? Like I've said before, we shouldn't allow for the precautions taken earlier in the pandemic to become the norm.

Yes. I think permanent masking is a great idea in the Delta Variant phase of COVID. I don’t want to see what happened in India occur in the US and feel that all vaccinated people should still wear their masks considering that the vaccines aren’t 100% effective.

The crisis in India was caused by lack of access to medical technology, poor sanitation among the very poor, and lack of resources for cleaning/masking. You can't draw any conclusions from India towards the Western world.

Also the vaccines are still like 88% effective per the sources--permanent masking isn't necessary

[LabourJersey]

Everyone who is alarmed (as I was initially) about the report that half of the new infections in Israel are among fully vaccinated people should read this thread ASAP: https://twitter.com/Jeffely/status/1408500890999328770.

TL/DR: since the general population of Israel is highly vaccinated, this infection rate is consistent with the Pfizer vaccine being as effective against Delta as it is against other variants.

Thanks for this.

I'm also convinced that a big thing about the panic with variants is that people immediately consider a mutation of something to be a catastrophe or something very different or bad.

The Delta being more contagious doesn't mean it's vaccine-proof, get a grip people

[Sir Mohamed]

Everyone who is alarmed (as I was initially) about the report that half of the new infections in Israel are among fully vaccinated people should read this thread ASAP: https://twitter.com/Jeffely/status/1408500890999328770.

TL/DR: since the general population of Israel is highly vaccinated, this infection rate is consistent with the Pfizer vaccine being as effective against Delta as it is against other variants.

Thanks for this.

I'm also convinced that a big thing about the panic with variants is that people immediately consider a mutation of something to be a catastrophe or something very different or bad.

The Delta being more contagious doesn't mean it's vaccine-proof, get a grip people

Yup, though there's a huge gap between fully vaccinated people and partly vaccinated. Pfizer vaccine is just 33% effective after the 1st shot, but over 90% after the 2nd according to current data. For elderly people, a 3rd booster shot is recommended a few months later.

[afleitch]

Everyone who is alarmed (as I was initially) about the report that half of the new infections in Israel are among fully vaccinated people should read this thread ASAP: https://twitter.com/Jeffely/status/1408500890999328770.

TL/DR: since the general population of Israel is highly vaccinated, this infection rate is consistent with the Pfizer vaccine being as effective against Delta as it is against other variants.

Thanks for this.

I'm also convinced that a big thing about the panic with variants is that people immediately consider a mutation of something to be a catastrophe or something very different or bad.

The Delta being more contagious doesn't mean it's vaccine-proof, get a grip people

Yup, though there's a huge gap between fully vaccinated people and partly vaccinated. Pfizer vaccine is just 33% effective after the 1st shot, but over 90% after the 2nd according to current data. For elderly people, a 3rd booster shot is recommended a few months later.

To reiterated a previous post, the two of us are positive despite having the first dose. People we know despite having two.

Vaccinations will help you fight it if you get it, and despite record cases in Scotland today the number in hospital is low to manageable.

[Person Man]

Everyone who is alarmed (as I was initially) about the report that half of the new infections in Israel are among fully vaccinated people should read this thread ASAP: https://twitter.com/Jeffely/status/1408500890999328770.

TL/DR: since the general population of Israel is highly vaccinated, this infection rate is consistent with the Pfizer vaccine being as effective against Delta as it is against other variants.

Thanks for this.

I'm also convinced that a big thing about the panic with variants is that people immediately consider a mutation of something to be a catastrophe or something very different or bad.

The Delta being more contagious doesn't mean it's vaccine-proof, get a grip people

Yup, though there's a huge gap between fully vaccinated people and partly vaccinated. Pfizer vaccine is just 33% effective after the 1st shot, but over 90% after the 2nd according to current data. For elderly people, a 3rd booster shot is recommended a few months later.

To reiterated a previous post, the two of us are positive despite having the first dose. People we know despite having two.

Vaccinations will help you fight it if you get it, and despite record cases in Scotland today the number in hospital is low to manageable.

So even if the vaccinations aren't a total "silver bullet", they do accomplish the public health objective of preventing the collapse of the healthcare system.

Which actually makes we wonder whether this was as bad as it could of gotten because all public health initiatives failed because of mass civil disobedience by conspiracy theorists or whether if none were attempted, the hospital system would be completely overwhelmed and that the fatality rate could have been more like 10% and the total infected could have been closer to 50% by now. So I wonder whether 600k (which makes it come close to tying for the deadliest outbreak in American History) or whether the upper bounds was perhaps in the 8 figures once you factor in mutations, people who couldn't get treated, etc.

How would have things gone if there were no curfews, quarantines, or mask mandates?

[afleitch]

Yes.

The reality is COVID will doubtless mutate away and become something that is always there. It will pick off people every year and we might need annual boosters.

The NHS is under some pressure but it seems to be the need for a few hours of oxygen or overnight observation. Less people are being admitted and those that are for less time.

We're kind of the dummy run for the western healthcare system. The numbers look scary when they build at first.

My concern is due to the 'red v blue' link to vaccinations in the States if that shows up with Delta, you'll see more right wing tinfoiling.

[It’s so Joever]

So some good news looking at the data here:
https://www.businessinsider.com/vaccinated-among-delta-deaths-but-older-relatively-few-uk-data-2021-6

Of the deaths from Delta in those over 50, 50 were vaccinated while 58 weren’t.

Now before you panic, after some napkin math, this actually looks really good. After all, using a conservative estimate of around 90% of Britons over 50 being fully vaccinated (which is actually in line with NHS data) it appears the vaccines have been around 99% effective in preventing deaths in the olds.
These are pretty shoddy figures, and I did this before coffee so it may be bunk plus the sample size is small, but it is some real world evidence the vaccines still maintain strength against delta.

[soundchaser]

Fantastic news! A study published in Nature suggests immunity from the mRNA vaccines may last for years.

[Hammy]

So some good news looking at the data here:
https://www.businessinsider.com/vaccinated-among-delta-deaths-but-older-relatively-few-uk-data-2021-6

Of the deaths from Delta in those over 50, 50 were vaccinated while 58 weren’t.

Now before you panic, after some napkin math, this actually looks really good. After all, using a conservative estimate of around 90% of Britons over 50 being fully vaccinated (which is actually in line with NHS data) it appears the vaccines have been around 99% effective in preventing deaths in the olds.
These are pretty shoddy figures, and I did this before coffee so it may be bunk plus the sample size is small, but it is some real world evidence the vaccines still maintain strength against delta.

This is a very good sign if even you're optimistic. Is this essentially putting the negative outcomes on par with the flu (if not lower) once vaccinated?

It does make me wonder if the AstraZenica vaccine is widely used in the UK, and vaccinated deaths are only 0.8% of total, if that vaccine is offering much protection at all and skewing the numbers high.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/28 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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6/20 (Holiday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 34,406,001 (+4,289 | ΔW Change: ↓17.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.01%)
• Deaths: 617,166 (+83 | ΔW Change: ↑418.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.01%)

6/21: <M>

• Cases: 34,419,838 (+6,609 [+13,837] | ΔW Change: ↓9.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
• Deaths: 617,463 (+121 [+297] | ΔW Change: ↑14.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)

6/22: <T>

• Cases: 34,433,696 (+9,898 [+13,858] | ΔW Change: ↓16.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
• Deaths: 617,864 (+335 [+401] | ΔW Change: ↓1.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.06%)

6/23: <W>

• Cases: 34,449,004 (+12,942 [+15,308] | ΔW Change: ↑1.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
• Deaths: 618,294 (+326 [+430] | ΔW Change: ↓7.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)

6/24: <Þ>

• Cases: 34,464,956 (+13,365 [+15,952] | ΔW Change: ↑16.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)
• Deaths: 618,685 (+329 [+391] | ΔW Change: ↑16.67% | Σ Increase: ↑0.06%)

6/25: <F>

• Cases: 34,482,672 (+15,537 [+17,716] | ΔW Change: ↑16.04% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)
• Deaths: 619,152 (+387 [+467] | ΔW Change: ↑1.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

6/26: <S>

• Cases: 34,490,134 (+7,462 | ΔW Change: ↓11.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.02%)
• Deaths: 619,343 (+150 [+191] | ΔW Change: ↓7.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.03%)

6/27 (Yesterday-Last Sunday Holiday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 34,494,677 (+4,543 | ΔW Change: ↑5.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.01%)
• Deaths: 619,424 (+81 | ΔW Change: ↓2.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.01%)

6/28 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 34,511,636 (+10,754 [+16,959] | ΔW Change: ↑62.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.02%)
• Deaths: 619,595 (+137 [+171] | ΔW Change: ↑13.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.03%)

[Beet]

Yikes. The Delta wave is definitely coming. The only silver lining I can see from this is that maybe it'll convince some people to get vaccinated.

[MATTROSE94]

Hopefully they will reinstate mask mandates and other public health measures very soon due to the Delta Variant.

[politicallefty]

WHO Urges Fully Vaccinated People To Continue Wearing Masks As Delta Variant Spreads—But No Word From CDC

World Health Organization (WHO) officials stressed Friday the need for fully vaccinated people to “continue to be appropriately cautious” and keep up with social distancing measures like mask wearing as the highly infectious Delta variant of the coronavirus becomes increasingly dominant in the U.S. and spurs new Covid-19 surges around the world—including in highly vaccinated countries.

[...]

“Us[ing] masks consistently” and following other social distancing measures like avoiding crowds, hand washing and being in well-ventilated spaces is “extremely important, even if you’re vaccinated,” Dr. Mariangela Simao, WHO assistant director-general for access to medicines and health products, said, warning, “Vaccine alone won’t stop the community transmission.”

I have a sick feeling that we declared victory too early. It's just becoming summer too. I don't think we have a clear picture as to what's going to happen later in the year.

[soundchaser]

The World Health Organization is not a United States governmental body and is speaking to many countries where the vaccination rate is much, much lower than ours.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Meanwhile, my county just moved to the green tier (the best of 4 tiers) on Kentucky's map.