COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[icemanj]

I think it's time to change the thread title (I don't know to what though).

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I think it's time to change the thread title (I don't know to what though).

May I suggest "Vaccination Nation".

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 1/20 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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1/10: <Sunday>

• Cases: 22,917,334 (+217,396 | ΔW Change: ↑4.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
• Deaths: 383,275 (+1,795 | ΔW Change: ↑28.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

1/11: <M>

• Cases: 23,143,197 (+225,863 | ΔW Change: ↓5.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.99%)
• Deaths: 385,249 (+1,974 | ΔW Change: ↓3.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

1/12: <T>

• Cases: 23,368,225 (+225,028 | ΔW Change: ↓0.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)
• Deaths: 389,599 (+4,350 | ΔW Change: ↑24.39% | Σ Increase: ↑1.13%)

1/13: <W>

• Cases: 23,616,345 (+248,120 | ΔW Change: ↓11.07% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)
• Deaths: 393,928 (+4,329 | ΔW Change: ↓0.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)

1/14: <Þ>

• Cases: 23,848,410 (+232,065 | ΔW Change: ↓15.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.98%)
• Deaths: 397,994 (+4,066 | ΔW Change: ↓1.64% | Σ Increase: ↑1.03%)

1/15: <F>

• Cases: 24,102,429 (+254,019 | ΔW Change: ↓21.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.07%)
• Deaths: 401,856 (+3,862 | ΔW Change: ↓4.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

1/16: <S>

• Cases: 24,306,043 (+203,614 | ΔW Change: ↓16.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)
• Deaths: 405,261 (+3,405 | ΔW Change: ↑2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.85%)

1/17: <Sunday>

• Cases: 24,482,050 (+176,007 | ΔW Change: ↓19.04% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)
• Deaths: 407,202 (+1,941 | ΔW Change: ↑8.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)

1/18: <M>

• Cases: 24,626,376 (+144,326 | ΔW Change: ↓36.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 408,620 (+1,418 | ΔW Change: ↓28.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

1/19 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 24,806,964 (+180,588 | ΔW Change: ↓19.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.73%)
• Deaths: 411,486 (+2,866 | ΔW Change: ↓34.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)

1/20 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 24,998,975 (+192,011 | ΔW Change: ↓22.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 415,894 (+4,408 | ΔW Change: ↑1.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.07%)

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Welp.

Case rate is still continuing to improve, at least.

[Dr. Arch]

Welp.

Case rate is still continuing to improve, at least.

The casualty rate will always lag behind the case rate due to the slow nature of the virus. Overall, we should expect the casualty rate to drop more significantly between next week and the one after.

[ilikeverin]

Welp.

Case rate is still continuing to improve, at least.

The casualty rate will always lag behind the case rate due to the slow nature of the virus. Overall, we should expect the casualty rate to drop more significantly between next week and the one after.

If we're doing vaccinations right, too, numbers should also start decreasing due to them around mid-February. Vaccination rates are low, but theoretically they ought in part to be going to some of the folks at highest risk of death.

[pbrower2a]

I think it's time to change the thread title (I don't know to what though).

My suggestion: "Aftermath" replaces "Dawn".  Or start over with a new thread.

[pbrower2a]

(deleted due to unnecessary duplication)

Thank you for changing the title.

[pbrower2a]

I am tempted to believe that the insurrection of January 6 is the last big "Presidential super-spreader event". 

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

CDC training still says visitors wearing masks when they visit hospitals doesn't help prevent infection if they are asymptomatic  -_-

https://twitter.com/RogueWPA/status/1352335394675671040?s=20

[President Johnson]

Joe Biden estimates that the 500,000 death mark will be hit next month in his speech today. "It gets worse before it gets better".

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1352345603473367042

[Yoda]

So I watched the White House press briefing a little bit ago with Dr. Fauci and I think it was the first press briefing in 4 years where there was someone at that podium who was smarter than me and who used a word here and there that I didn't 100% know the meaning. I am so here for Dr. Fauci bringing the science.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/01/20/dallas-vaccine-plan-communities-of-color/

good

[Calthrina950]

So I watched the White House press briefing a little bit ago with Dr. Fauci and I think it was the first press briefing in 4 years where there was someone at that podium who was smarter than me and who used a word here and there that I didn't 100% know the meaning. I am so here for Dr. Fauci bringing the science.

Dr. Fauci admitted that it was a relief he could now speak his mind, without fear of repercussions. It's well known that Trump was contemplating the firing of Fauci, and he would have gone forward with doing so had he won reelection. As I've said before, Fauci must be greatly pleased that Biden is now President. Biden is already adopting a much more serious tone towards the pandemic than Trump ever did, and isn't sugarcoating things like Trump.

And the White House has adopted new procedures (i.e. mandatory masking for all on the premises, more frequent coronavirus testing, more thorough cleaning practices, etc.), with regards to its own operations, that reflects the new Administration's focus. I am so glad that the residence is finally free of the Trump family's presence.

[Ogre Mage]

This is the clip where the press asks Dr. Fauci on the difference between serving the Biden vs. Trump Administration.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4BAYhwrFxk&t=0s

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 1/21 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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1/10: <Sunday>

• Cases: 22,917,334 (+217,396 | ΔW Change: ↑4.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
• Deaths: 383,275 (+1,795 | ΔW Change: ↑28.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

1/11: <M>

• Cases: 23,143,197 (+225,863 | ΔW Change: ↓5.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.99%)
• Deaths: 385,249 (+1,974 | ΔW Change: ↓3.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

1/12: <T>

• Cases: 23,368,225 (+225,028 | ΔW Change: ↓0.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)
• Deaths: 389,599 (+4,350 | ΔW Change: ↑24.39% | Σ Increase: ↑1.13%)

1/13: <W>

• Cases: 23,616,345 (+248,120 | ΔW Change: ↓11.07% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)
• Deaths: 393,928 (+4,329 | ΔW Change: ↓0.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)

1/14: <Þ>

• Cases: 23,848,410 (+232,065 | ΔW Change: ↓15.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.98%)
• Deaths: 397,994 (+4,066 | ΔW Change: ↓1.64% | Σ Increase: ↑1.03%)

1/15: <F>

• Cases: 24,102,429 (+254,019 | ΔW Change: ↓21.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.07%)
• Deaths: 401,856 (+3,862 | ΔW Change: ↓4.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

1/16: <S>

• Cases: 24,306,043 (+203,614 | ΔW Change: ↓16.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)
• Deaths: 405,261 (+3,405 | ΔW Change: ↑2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.85%)

1/17: <Sunday>

• Cases: 24,482,050 (+176,007 | ΔW Change: ↓19.04% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)
• Deaths: 407,202 (+1,941 | ΔW Change: ↑8.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)

1/18: <M>

• Cases: 24,626,376 (+144,326 | ΔW Change: ↓36.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 408,620 (+1,418 | ΔW Change: ↓28.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

1/19: <T>

• Cases: 24,806,964 (+180,588 | ΔW Change: ↓19.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.73%)
• Deaths: 411,486 (+2,866 | ΔW Change: ↓34.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)

1/20 (Yesterday): <W>

• Cases: 24,998,975 (+192,011 | ΔW Change: ↓22.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 415,894 (+4,408 | ΔW Change: ↑1.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.07%)

1/21 (Today): <Þ>

• Cases: 25,196,086 (+197,111 | ΔW Change: ↓15.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)
• Deaths: 420,285 (+4,391 | ΔW Change: ↑7.99% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

[tallguy23]

My parents got their first dose today in Los Angeles. So relieved.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Why are we so far behind on opening schools? Montana let schools reopen way back on May 7, and the ones that chose to open back then pretty much opened like normal. I think they used hula hoops for social distancing, but you didn't see 6-year-olds walking around in hazmat suits.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

In Vermont, the decision has mostly been left to the districts, and when I last checked all but the largest ones were open for in-person classes. The kids who live across the street from me are getting on the bus at least a couple of days per week.

The rhetoric in Biden's reopening plan suggests that the administration will not be particularly sympathetic toward teachers' unions that insist on keeping schools closed for as long as possible.

I've seen a lot of empty school buses in northern Kentucky. At most, they might have one student or something. A lot of kids just aren't enrolled, so they basically just roam around town.

I've always been a very strong union supporter, but I am completely disgusted at teachers' unions that won't allow in-person schooling, especially because every teacher I know wants to go back in-person and have completely normal classes. What are the unions doing to represent teachers? I call it controlled opposition.

Some other unions in other industries are also taking stances that are the same as large corporations (and in opposition to other unions). Someone on Reddit said they're a stage actor, and most stage actors want to go back to work, but their union has supported canceling all plays until September. But the union for producers wants to go ahead with plays.

[jimrtex]

According to the OurWorldInData vaccine tracker (https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations), today is the first day in which the US recorded vaccinating over 1 million people. (I'm not sure what the lag in this data is.)

And we are now at a 7-day average of almost 800k doses, compared with just 400k a week ago.  It does seem like we are getting to where we need to be here.

This is likely source for US injections.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

The notes say that those performing the injections have 72 hours to report injections to state and local officials, and there may be further delays between that receipt and passing it along to the CDC.

If I were someone performing injections, I would be wanting to report daily after the close of business. It seems unduly difficult to be reporting on Thursday what you did on Monday. On the other hand, I can see the person making the report on the next day. If the clinic, etc. closes at 4 PM or 5 PM, etc. are they really going to have someone entering the records overnight? They will be doing it the next AM.

The CDC data is as of 6 AM. So the CDC data for 1 million+ doses is from reports made between 6 AM Thursday and 6 AM Friday. The CDC is not issuing their updates until late in the afternoon.

I doubt that many states reported at 5 AM on Friday, more likely at 4 PM or 5 PM on Thursday (local time). This would give them as much time to input data from clinics.

There was an inflection last Tuesday (see ourworldindata chart, zap out Israel, UAE, etc. to expand vertical scale).

If we assume that was for Sunday injections reported on Monday to state authorities and forwarded to CDC late on Monday, then there is a two-day lag, in part because the CDC report is so early in the morning (originally the CDC report was based on 9 AM and they probably became annoyed at east coast states dumping data on them just before the deadline).

So this means that 1 million plus happened on Wednesday. It might not be possible to confirm this since the CDC is only reporting MTWTF (originally it was MWF) and this is the first week that they have done 5-per-week.

The next report on Monday would be for Thursday-Friday-Saturday injections. Saturday will be less than Thursday-Friday, but greater than Sunday. So the Monday report may be just shy of three million.

The CDC has just begin differentiating between
(1) Doses injected.
(2) Persons injected with 1 or more doses.
(3) Persons injected with 2 doses.

About 1/4 of the Wednesday(?) doses were second doses, with the total up to 1.6M. Those who have had only one dose is 9.0 million.

Type of does is 58% Pfizer-42% Moderna. Moderna should lag a bit because they were approved later, and the period between the two doses is 28 for Moderna vs. 21 Pfizer.

I suspect that at least initially, most second doses will happen precisely 3 weeks after the first. If you have done one, you are not going to be waiting around 5 weeks before making an appointment, and you may be getting the call back.

There was no report on Monday January 18 because of the holiday, so the report for Tuesday January 19 covered 4 days. Though the snapshot time was 6 AM (EST), the reports have not been issued until much later in the day (evening).

The Tuesday report showed 3.428M injections over 4 days. If there is a two-day lag, this would be consistent with 1M per day, and 500K per day on Sunday. There may also have been a further reporting delay due to state officials in charge of reporting not working on Monday (people actually doing injections probably continued to do so, but at reduced pace).

The Wednesday report showed 818K injections which likely reflects a drop for Monday. The Thursday report showed 1.021M injections.

[Beet]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1352755683041685506

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 1/22 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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1/10: <Sunday>

• Cases: 22,917,334 (+217,396 | ΔW Change: ↑4.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
• Deaths: 383,275 (+1,795 | ΔW Change: ↑28.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

1/11: <M>

• Cases: 23,143,197 (+225,863 | ΔW Change: ↓5.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.99%)
• Deaths: 385,249 (+1,974 | ΔW Change: ↓3.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

1/12: <T>

• Cases: 23,368,225 (+225,028 | ΔW Change: ↓0.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)
• Deaths: 389,599 (+4,350 | ΔW Change: ↑24.39% | Σ Increase: ↑1.13%)

1/13: <W>

• Cases: 23,616,345 (+248,120 | ΔW Change: ↓11.07% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)
• Deaths: 393,928 (+4,329 | ΔW Change: ↓0.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)

1/14: <Þ>

• Cases: 23,848,410 (+232,065 | ΔW Change: ↓15.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.98%)
• Deaths: 397,994 (+4,066 | ΔW Change: ↓1.64% | Σ Increase: ↑1.03%)

1/15: <F>

• Cases: 24,102,429 (+254,019 | ΔW Change: ↓21.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.07%)
• Deaths: 401,856 (+3,862 | ΔW Change: ↓4.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

1/16: <S>

• Cases: 24,306,043 (+203,614 | ΔW Change: ↓16.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)
• Deaths: 405,261 (+3,405 | ΔW Change: ↑2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.85%)

1/17: <Sunday>

• Cases: 24,482,050 (+176,007 | ΔW Change: ↓19.04% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)
• Deaths: 407,202 (+1,941 | ΔW Change: ↑8.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)

1/18: <M>

• Cases: 24,626,376 (+144,326 | ΔW Change: ↓36.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 408,620 (+1,418 | ΔW Change: ↓28.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

1/19: <T>

• Cases: 24,806,964 (+180,588 | ΔW Change: ↓19.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.73%)
• Deaths: 411,486 (+2,866 | ΔW Change: ↓34.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)

1/20: <W>

• Cases: 24,998,975 (+192,011 | ΔW Change: ↓22.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 415,894 (+4,408 | ΔW Change: ↑1.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.07%)

1/21 (Yesterday): <Þ>

• Cases: 25,196,086 (+197,111 | ΔW Change: ↓15.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)
• Deaths: 420,285 (+4,391 | ΔW Change: ↑7.99% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

1/22 (Today): <F>

• Cases: 25,390,042 (+193,956 | ΔW Change: ↓23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 424,177 (+3,892 | ΔW Change: ↑0.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)

[emailking]

I think the percentage on deaths may be off?

[Dr. Arch]

I think the percentage on deaths may be off?

Whoops, yeah, they are. One moment.

Edit: Fixed. I compared them to the numbers from last Saturday by mistake.

[jamestroll]

I knew I did the right thing by voting for Biden on my very first opportunity on September 18th, 2020.  I was one of the first Americans to vote for Biden.

He will not shut the economy down and is finally creating a coherent covid response plan.

Most anti-lockdown protesters like me voted for Trump. My thinking was: To avoid lockdowns we need competent leadership to get the pandemic under control. Trump was not competent leadership.