COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[jamestroll]

Like I said closing schools was bullsh**t.

But I understand why many liberals were concerned about kids getting sick with covid. People naturally want to watch out for kids. But the school closing hysteria was not backed by science!

Between teachers of Virginia, unemployment workers, DMV workers, etc.. the biggest shock to me of Virginia was it having ridiculous and horribly government employees. Wouldn't have expected it in a state like that.

https://www.dailypress.net/news/local-news/2022/08/i-didnt-really-learn-anything-covid-grads-face-college/

Algebra got little of his attention, but his teachers kept giving him good grades amid a school-wide push for leniency.

“It was like school was optional. It wasn’t a mandatory thing,” said Hope, 18, of Milwaukee. “I feel like I didn’t really learn anything.”

learning math and science online.. lol.......... will not work.

[Frodo]

It looks like we are slowly moving into Camp 5:

https://twitter.com/NYTHealth/status/1557921319047643136

[jamestroll]

It looks like we are slowly moving into Camp 5:

https://twitter.com/NYTHealth/status/1557921319047643136

They are way behind the times. it is the saddest part of modern day humanity how we all over reacted to an over hyped virus.

[emailking]

First lady Dr. Jill Biden tests positive for Covid-19

First lady Dr. Jill Biden has tested positive for Covid-19 and is experiencing mild symptoms, her spokesperson said Tuesday.

“After testing negative for Covid-19 on Monday during her regular testing cadence, the First Lady began to develop cold-like symptoms late in the evening. She tested negative again on a rapid antigen test, but a PCR test came back positive,” said Elizabeth Alexander, her communications director.

The first lady, who is double vaccinated and twice boosted, is taking Paxlovid, Pfizer’s antiviral drug, per Alexander.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/16/politics/jill-biden-covid/index.html

[jamestroll]

First lady Dr. Jill Biden tests positive for Covid-19

First lady Dr. Jill Biden has tested positive for Covid-19 and is experiencing mild symptoms, her spokesperson said Tuesday.

“After testing negative for Covid-19 on Monday during her regular testing cadence, the First Lady began to develop cold-like symptoms late in the evening. She tested negative again on a rapid antigen test, but a PCR test came back positive,” said Elizabeth Alexander, her communications director.

The first lady, who is double vaccinated and twice boosted, is taking Paxlovid, Pfizer’s antiviral drug, per Alexander.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/16/politics/jill-biden-covid/index.html

lol I hope she recovers, but this is not really "news".


This is news:

https://www.washingtonpolicy.org/publications/detail/study-reveals-washington-states-school-closure-policy-caused-learning-loss-life-long-harms

Rather than advancing students a grade based on their actual gains in learning, in 2021 education officials essentially extended social promotion to all 1.1 million public school children.

Research shows many students suffered long-term learning loss and psychological and emotional harm due to the governor’s extended school closure policy

State test scores show public schools failed to adequately educate 70 percent of students in math and 52 percent of students in English.

Low-income students were most severely affected, with 8,700 fewer such students applying for state-funded college scholarships.

Researchers warned closing schools would inflict student harm “that could last a lifetime,” especially for low-income Hispanic and black students, increasing achievement gaps by 15-20 percent.
 
Washington public schools received operating funding at the highest levels in history during the COVID crisis, despite school closures.

In June of 2020, researchers at McKinsey and Company warned that two to nine percent of high school students would drop out, and that U.S. students may lose, on average, a year’s worth of full-time work in lifetime earnings as a result of COVID-relating learning losses.

Researchers at Brown University found a 23 percent drop in IQ for very young children caused by  mandated mask and social distancing requirements.

The mandate policy that closed schools long term caused many children with special needs to regress and lose what they had learned in the past.

Isolating teenagers from social contact with peers for nearly two years increased their levels of anxiety and stress, problems which may persist with long-term consequences.

[emailking]

No it's definitely news.

[Progressive Pessimist]

First lady Dr. Jill Biden tests positive for Covid-19

First lady Dr. Jill Biden has tested positive for Covid-19 and is experiencing mild symptoms, her spokesperson said Tuesday.

“After testing negative for Covid-19 on Monday during her regular testing cadence, the First Lady began to develop cold-like symptoms late in the evening. She tested negative again on a rapid antigen test, but a PCR test came back positive,” said Elizabeth Alexander, her communications director.

The first lady, who is double vaccinated and twice boosted, is taking Paxlovid, Pfizer’s antiviral drug, per Alexander.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/16/politics/jill-biden-covid/index.html

Let's remember that after Biden got COVID everything started to change in his favor. Imagine how much more this will bring out of Dark Brandon!

Serious response: I wish her a speedy recovery.

[Pericles]

It looks like we are slowly moving into Camp 5:

https://twitter.com/NYTHealth/status/1557921319047643136

They are way behind the times. it is the saddest part of modern day humanity how we all over reacted to an over hyped virus.

It killed a million Americans, killed thousands every day at the peak and brought the healthcare system to its knees. People were right to make sacrifices to protect their loved ones and their community. Now that the science has changed, it is not as big of a threat. It should be obvious thought that restrictions and behaviour changes were the right response to a dangerous pandemic that we had no vaccines and treatments for.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

In the past couple weeks, cases have been going back down again, and it's pretty steep too.

Also, the CDC said last week that 95% of Americans have immunity now. We're way past the herd immunity threshold, which was estimated to be 70% at the highest.

[Pres Mike]

In the past couple weeks, cases have been going back down again, and it's pretty steep too.

Also, the CDC said last week that 95% of Americans have immunity now. We're way past the herd immunity threshold, which was estimated to be 70% at the highest.

Yet Louisville school are still requiring masks wtf

[emailking]

In the past couple weeks, cases have been going back down again, and it's pretty steep too.

Also, the CDC said last week that 95% of Americans have immunity now. We're way past the herd immunity threshold, which was estimated to be 70% at the highest.

But you need a higher threshold when the virus goes from moderately contagious to the most contagious disease in history.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

In the past couple weeks, cases have been going back down again, and it's pretty steep too.

Also, the CDC said last week that 95% of Americans have immunity now. We're way past the herd immunity threshold, which was estimated to be 70% at the highest.

But you need a higher threshold when the virus goes from moderately contagious to the most contagious disease in history.

Even with measles, the herd immunity threshold is only 95%.

We can't keep moving the goalposts just to justify mask mandates. There's really no goalposts left. Vaccines are available down to the age of 6 months, so what other goalposts are there?

[emailking]

Dude what I'm saying is the whole field moved. We don't have herd immunity. That's just a fact. People are getting sick all the time. Who cares if 70% immunity in 2020 would have eradicated the virus? I'm telling you why we don't have herd immunity at 95%. The immunity people have to measles is stronger too.

[Frodo]

That Omicron-specific booster shot towards the end of the year could be the last one directly funded by the federal government:

Biden Administration Plans for End of Covid-19 Shot, Treatment Coverage

The Biden administration is planning for an end to its practice of paying for Covid-19 shots and treatments, shifting more control of pricing and coverage to the healthcare industry in ways that could generate sales for companies—and costs for consumers—for years to come.

The Department of Health and Human Services plans to hold a planning session on Aug. 30 that will bring together representatives from drugmakers, pharmacies and state health departments with a stake in a Covid-19 treatment industry.

Both the Trump and Biden administrations always planned to shift the bill for Covid-19 shots and treatments from the federal government to individuals eventually. With Covid-19 cases dropping, more activities resuming and funding for the pandemic response running short, officials are now working to map out that transition.

Shifting payments for Covid-19 drugs and vaccines to the commercial market is expected to take months, an HHS spokesman said. At the meeting this month, officials and company representatives will discuss reimbursement and coverage, regulatory issues and access to vaccines and treatment for the uninsured.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Dude what I'm saying is the whole field moved. We don't have herd immunity. That's just a fact. People are getting sick all the time. Who cares if 70% immunity in 2020 would have eradicated the virus? I'm telling you why we don't have herd immunity at 95%. The immunity people have to measles is stronger too.

With the original virus, there were two competing strategies- herd immunity and elimination.  The big issue was that a lot of the world went with the worst of both worlds.  The other thing is that the vaccine was actually incredibly good at stopping transmission of the original virus.

The initial success of the vaccine allowed herd immunity to again become a viable goal in 2021.  By the beginning of summer, a combination of vaccine-derived and natural immunity got cases down to next to nothing, and we were probably on track for herd immunity-derived elimination.

However, then the Delta variant arrived in late June/early July 2021.  At first, the focus was on the increased transmissability, but the bigger factor was that it could penetrate vaccine-derived immunity.  Had it simply been more contagious, it would have just been a brief bump as we waited for a new herd immunity level, but that wasn't the main factor.  I strongly suspect I might have had Delta in late August 2021 after avoiding it for close to a year and a half.

Then, Omicron came along in December 2021, which was both incredibly contagious and could evade both types of immunity.  Given the relative mildness of the infection, the vast majority of places allowed it to just rip through the population.  A few weeks later, Omicron peaked and then began the most rapid fall in cases we saw at any point during covid.  This was a manifestation of herd immunity because most people had Omicron (many probably mildly enough that they never knew).  By late March, for the second time, cases were approaching nothing.  The only reason it didn't last was that natural immunity from the Omicron variant isn't long lasting and neutralizing.

On the other hand, we have really reached the end game because, while no one is completely immune (with the possible exception of people who just recovered), virtually everyone is partially immune.  We were twice approaching actual herd immunity- once in June 2021 and once in March/April 2022- but things changed.  Still, we have reached what appears to be a long lasting effective herd immunity.  A combination of a weakened virus with partial immunity for most of us has lead to positive tests being just that- without any of the more serious consequences.

All of this tells us that the "SARS-COV-2" virus will never be eradicated, but it is also completely disingenuous to say that we are currently in a pandemic.  I still think a strategy of getting herd immunity through never leaving full normalcy in 2020 could have worked and eventually eradicated the virus, as could have super draconian lockdowns in February 2020 (before the virus took hold).  Neither of those were tried, and we got a bit of bad luck with a new variant barely beating herd immunity in mid-2021.  If we all tested ourselves forever, we'd probably all test positive for covid a couple times a year, but it's now just one of many cold and flu viruses that always have existed in the background (and unfortunately have always killed a statistically small number of people).  That's just a different form of herd immunity.

[T'Chenka]

Dude what I'm saying is the whole field moved. We don't have herd immunity. That's just a fact. People are getting sick all the time. Who cares if 70% immunity in 2020 would have eradicated the virus? I'm telling you why we don't have herd immunity at 95%. The immunity people have to measles is stronger too.

With the original virus, there were two competing strategies- herd immunity and elimination.  The big issue was that a lot of the world went with the worst of both worlds.  The other thing is that the vaccine was actually incredibly good at stopping transmission of the original virus.

The initial success of the vaccine allowed herd immunity to again become a viable goal in 2021.  By the beginning of summer, a combination of vaccine-derived and natural immunity got cases down to next to nothing, and we were probably on track for herd immunity-derived elimination.

No actual non-schill scientists were advocating for herd immunity as a "strategy"... the time duration and effectiveness of the immunity you got from getting COVID or a vaccine were not clear, and the dangers to long-term health and to life itself were too high for reasonably experts to recommend that herd immunity was a real option. Right wing media, COVID conspiracy theorists and ivermectin takers were advocating for it, but it was never an ACTUAL solution to the problem.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The general consensus among real scientists is that we should have just followed the Great Barrington Declaration.

[T'Chenka]

The general consensus among real scientists is that we should have just followed the Great Barrington Declaration.

"Real scientists"...

[SnowLabrador]

So vaccines will probably start costing thousands of dollars in the US now that the federal government is going to stop paying for them. We truly are a failed state, and it's thanks to the GOP. I told you guys we would be back to 2020 soon enough.

[Hammy]

The general consensus among real scientists is that we should have just followed the Great Barrington Declaration.

The same people deny climate change.

[MiddleRoad]

In the past couple weeks, cases have been going back down again, and it's pretty steep too.

Also, the CDC said last week that 95% of Americans have immunity now. We're way past the herd immunity threshold, which was estimated to be 70% at the highest.

But you need a higher threshold when the virus goes from moderately contagious to the most contagious disease in history.

Even with measles, the herd immunity threshold is only 95%.

We can't keep moving the goalposts just to justify mask mandates. There's really no goalposts left. Vaccines are available down to the age of 6 months, so what other goalposts are there?

-Masks forever
-Lockdowns and mail in voting every election cycle
-Covid forever

[MiddleRoad]

It looks like we are slowly moving into Camp 5:

https://twitter.com/NYTHealth/status/1557921319047643136

They are way behind the times. it is the saddest part of modern day humanity how we all over reacted to an over hyped virus.

I didn’t. Still not vaxxed. And won’t unless I’m absolutely forced to be.

[emailking]

-Masks forever
-Lockdowns and mail in voting every election cycle
-Covid forever

I don't see a problem with the permanent mail in voting if in person is still an option, as it has been. But anyway the reason we don't have heard immunity is because the virus got a lot more contagious and the immunity we have isn't that great. You can call it moving the goalposts or whatever but it's just a fact.

[emailking]

Jill Biden tests positive for rebound case of Covid-19

First lady Dr. Jill Biden has tested positive for a rebound case of Covid-19, her deputy communications director Kelsey Donohue confirmed to CNN.

Biden, who is currently in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, tested positive again for Covid-19 with an antigen test on Wednesday. She tested negative during a routine test on Tuesday.

Donohue says the first lady has not had a reemergence of symptoms. She added that a "small number of close contacts" with whom Biden had recent contact have been notified.

Biden first tested positive on August 15 while vacationing in Kiawah Island, South Carolina. The first lady had "cold-like symptoms," according to Alexander, and was put on a cycle of the antiviral drug Paxlovid, which can trigger a rebound case of Covid-19 in some people several days after a negative test result.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/24/politics/jill-biden-rebound-covid-19/index.html

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

https://www.slowboring.com/p/we-should-expect-more-and-worse-pandemics

We should expect more — and worse — pandemics to come
The fundamentals are bad

As a teenager, I was a big fan of Laurie Garrett’s 1994 book “The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance.”

She argued that the world was making a big mistake treating the HIV/AIDS outbreak as a kind of one-off event. Throughout the 20th century, humanity enjoyed an enormous reduction in the risk of infectious diseases due to the triple punch of improved sanitation, antibiotics, and vaccines, but Garrett claimed that it was a mistake to assume the trend would inevitably continue. On the contrary, she thought it was likely to reverse for several reasons:

1. Antibiotics are miraculous, but resistant strains are emerging faster than we can invent new drugs.
2. Economic development is pushing more people into unfamiliar wildlife habitats where zoonotic crossover events can occur.
3. Just as the transition from hunter-gatherer to agricultural lifestyles increased disease zoonosis, so has the transition from traditional agricultural practices to factory farming.
4. The spread of motorized transportation and the growing affordability of air travel make it more likely that new pathogens will spread rapidly.
5. There are actually a bunch of weird viruses known to be deadly to humans that just haven’t spread much yet.

Her concerns have essentially all been born out over time, though relative to my worries 30 years ago, (5) has been less relevant — the scariest outbreaks have mostly come from entirely new viruses.

Antibiotic resistance remains an underrated problem. It has killed millions of people over the past 10 years, but the victims are primarily in poor countries and/or were already ill, so it doesn’t get enough attention, even as the situation steadily deteriorates.



We also have more people in contact with more animals traveling more quickly to more places. A big new Nature article looks at how deforestation is accelerating disease spread. Statisticians say we’ll likely experience another Covid-scale pandemic in our lifetimes.