COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm pretty sure Pennsylvania reported two days worth of totals today. Do we know of any other states that had something like that happen? Otherwise a 50% week-over-week change is horrifyingly bad.

Wisconsin reported 3 days. I think Connecticut and Rhode Island did too.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I'm pretty sure Pennsylvania reported two days worth of totals today. Do we know of any other states that had something like that happen? Otherwise a 50% week-over-week change is horrifyingly bad.

Wisconsin reported 3 days. I think Connecticut and Rhode Island did too.

Okay, Wisconsin would explain a lot, given that they're having a pretty substantial spike there.

[redjohn]

Wisconsin's situation is not great. Reminds me of the July spike with the amount of friends/family I have who have tested positive recently...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yesterday did have the highest number of tests so far, with over 1.2 million. So a lot of states now are testing anything that moves.

[CultureKing]

Yesterday did have the highest number of tests so far, with over 1.2 million. So a lot of states now are testing anything that moves.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if some universities have pushed up testing numbers. I'm part of the University of Washington's testing program which monitors something like 30-40k staff/faculty/students on a regular basis. I'm guessing other institutions with med schools and testing facilities are doing the same?

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 10/20 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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10/11: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,991,069 (+45,564 | ΔW Change: ↑26.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)
• Deaths: 219,695 (+413 | ΔW Change: ↑23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

10/12: <M>

• Cases: 8,037,789 (+46,720 | ΔW Change: ↑9.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 220,011 (+316 | ΔW Change: ↓24.94% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

10/13: <T>

• Cases: 8,090,080 (+52,291 | ΔW Change: ↓2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
• Deaths: 220,841 (+830 | ΔW Change: ↓13.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

10/14: <W>

• Cases: 8,150,043 (+59,963 | ΔW Change: ↑12.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 221,843 (+1,002 | ΔW Change: ↑4.16% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/15: <Þ>

• Cases: 8,216,315 (+66,272 | ΔW Change: ↑15.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.81%)
• Deaths: 222,717 (+874 | ΔW Change: ↓8.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)

10/16: <F>

• Cases: 8,286,824 (+70,509 | ΔW Change: ↑15.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)
• Deaths: 223,625 (+908 | ΔW Change: ↓0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)

10/17: <S>

• Cases: 8,342,665 (+55,841 | ΔW Change: ↑9.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.67%)
• Deaths: 224,282 (+657 | ΔW Change: ↑3.63% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

10/18: <Sunday>

• Cases: 8,387,790 (+45,125 | ΔW Change: ↓0.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 224,730 (+448 | ΔW Change: ↑8.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/19 (Yesterday): <M>

• Cases: 8,456,653 (+68,863 | ΔW Change: ↑47.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 225,222 (+492 | ΔW Change: ↑55.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

10/20 (Today): <T>

• Cases: 8,519,665 (+63,012 | ΔW Change: ↑17.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.75%)
• Deaths: 226,138 (+916 | ΔW Change: ↑10.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

What’s the survival rate for all those in the United States (and the rest of the world) affected indirectly by the fallout from Covid and the resulting semi-collapse of society?

I very much doubt that survival rate is anywhere near the 99.6% survival from the actual illness. Something to mull over.

[It’s so Joever]

What’s the survival rate forcall those in the United States (and the rest of the world) affected indirectly by the fallout from Covid and the semi-collapse of society?

I very much doubt that survival rate is anywhere near the 99.6% survival from the actual disease. Something to mull over.

With that logic, we should ask about the survival rate of the well documented long term damage this disease will cause.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

One thing that bothers me is the idea that the botched response is being deliberately whipped up by the Democrats just to make things look bad so Trump loses. As bad as the response is, that seems low even by the Democrats' miserable standards lately. I have never been a Trump supporter, but I don't have so much Trump derangement to try to purposely botch a pandemic response just to make him lose.

The sadder part is that folks on other boards who are either involved in the Democratic Party or have very liberal views are starting to say the Democrats did indeed bungle it on purpose. The people saying this are anti-Trump, but they know more about the inner workings of the Democratic Party than I do.

And my goodness, I'm actually starting to believe them!

[Beet]

One thing that bothers me is the idea that the botched response is being deliberately whipped up by the Democrats just to make things look bad so Trump loses. As bad as the response is, that seems low even by the Democrats' miserable standards lately. I have never been a Trump supporter, but I don't have so much Trump derangement to try to purposely botch a pandemic response just to make him lose.

The sadder part is that folks on other boards who are either involved in the Democratic Party or have very liberal views are starting to say the Democrats did indeed bungle it on purpose. The people saying this are anti-Trump, but they know more about the inner workings of the Democratic Party than I do.

And my goodness, I'm actually starting to believe them!

It's not true. This pandemic has disproportionately killed Blacks, minorities, and poor people. They would be stupid to kill off their own voters, even from a selfish standpoint. I'm certainly no fan at all of the people running this party, but even I don't think they're that depraved.

[Meclazine for Israel]

What’s the survival rate for all those in the United States (and the rest of the world) affected indirectly by the fallout from Covid and the resulting semi-collapse of society?

I very much doubt that survival rate is anywhere near the 99.6% survival from the actual illness. Something to mull over.

Survival rate is getting better:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The third wave in 'new case' numbers in the US is visible.

But the death numbers do not replicate these three peaks. The number of deaths is certainly subsiding which each wave.

[It’s so Joever]

One thing that bothers me is the idea that the botched response is being deliberately whipped up by the Democrats just to make things look bad so Trump loses. As bad as the response is, that seems low even by the Democrats' miserable standards lately. I have never been a Trump supporter, but I don't have so much Trump derangement to try to purposely botch a pandemic response just to make him lose.

The sadder part is that folks on other boards who are either involved in the Democratic Party or have very liberal views are starting to say the Democrats did indeed bungle it on purpose. The people saying this are anti-Trump, but they know more about the inner workings of the Democratic Party than I do.

And my goodness, I'm actually starting to believe them!

It's not true. This pandemic has disproportionately killed Blacks, minorities, and poor people. They would be stupid to kill off their own voters, even from a selfish standpoint. I'm certainly no fan at all of the people running this party, but even I don't think they're that depraved.

Like a true “populist”, you are buying into bull**t conspiracies to feel intellectually superior.

Seriously f**k off with your disinformation campaign.

[dead0man]

Why are people who get Covid in CT or RI TEN! times more likely to die than someone who gets Covid in ID or NE.  That's weird right?  It seems to really hit the north east the hardest (just like gingivitis!), is it because they got hit earlier and we didn't know as much about  keeping people alive?  Where their hospitals overrun?  Or just worse?  It's not black people driving the numbers, are people in Hartford just that much fatter than Boise?  Population density?


Ten times more is a LOT, there has to be a reason for the difference.

[Tintrlvr]

Why are people who get Covid in CT or RI TEN! times more likely to die than someone who gets Covid in ID or NE.  That's weird right?  It seems to really hit the north east the hardest (just like gingivitis!), is it because they got hit earlier and we didn't know as much about  keeping people alive?  Where their hospitals overrun?  Or just worse?  It's not black people driving the numbers, are people in Hartford just that much fatter than Boise?  Population density?


Ten times more is a LOT, there has to be a reason for the difference.

Testing levels were well under a tenth of what they are now back then, so only a tiny fraction of cases, mostly only the most severe, were reported during that initial outbreak. In actuality, there were still more cases in New York in March-April than there have been in any other state, by far. It’s as simple as that. I don’t think you’re a fool, and this should be obvious to anyone paying attention.

Death rates from new cases in the region now from the virus are no different than anywhere else.

[It’s so Joever]

Why are people who get Covid in CT or RI TEN! times more likely to die than someone who gets Covid in ID or NE.  That's weird right?  It seems to really hit the north east the hardest (just like gingivitis!), is it because they got hit earlier and we didn't know as much about  keeping people alive?  Where their hospitals overrun?  Or just worse?  It's not black people driving the numbers, are people in Hartford just that much fatter than Boise?  Population density?


Ten times more is a LOT, there has to be a reason for the difference.

Testing levels were well under a tenth of what they are now back then, so only a tiny fraction of cases, mostly only the most severe, were reported during that initial outbreak. In actuality, there were still more cases in New York in March-April than there have been in any other state, by far. It’s as simple as that. I don’t think you’re a fool, and this should be obvious to anyone paying attention.

Death rates from new cases in the region now from the virus are no different than anywhere else.

Also treatment options were worse.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

It's about more testing, (younger) demographics (of patients) and better treatment. The following article uses mostly data from UK, but it should be similar across the West World.

https://www.ft.com/content/b3801b63-fbdb-433b-9a46-217405b1109f
Why the second wave of Covid-19 appears to be less lethal
Shifts in demographics and better hospital treatments help explain rising odds of survival

Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, attributed about half of the improvement to the use of dexamethasone and other steroid medicines to reduce inflammation and dampen down patients’ overactive immune systems.

The age composition of Covid-19 hospital patients has also shifted, with over-sixties accounting for less than half of patients in August, down from 70 per cent in February, according to data compiled from 44 countries by ISARIC, the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium.

But improved hospital outcomes are not just the result of shifting patient demographics: in-hospital mortality among over-sixties halved from 50 per cent in early spring to 25 per cent in August.

[dead0man]

Why are people who get Covid in CT or RI TEN! times more likely to die than someone who gets Covid in ID or NE.  That's weird right?  It seems to really hit the north east the hardest (just like gingivitis!), is it because they got hit earlier and we didn't know as much about  keeping people alive?  Where their hospitals overrun?  Or just worse?  It's not black people driving the numbers, are people in Hartford just that much fatter than Boise?  Population density?


Ten times more is a LOT, there has to be a reason for the difference.

Testing levels were well under a tenth of what they are now back then, so only a tiny fraction of cases, mostly only the most severe, were reported during that initial outbreak. In actuality, there were still more cases in New York in March-April than there have been in any other state, by far. It’s as simple as that. I don’t think you’re a fool, and this should be obvious to anyone paying attention.

Death rates from new cases in the region now from the virus are no different than anywhere else.

but NY doesn't have the same levels that the rest of New England does



why is NY 1/5 of what CT is?

[Torie]

Believe it or not I have never seen anyone indoors in my 75 mile range of travel or so not wearing a mask indoors, which is a requirement except in restaurants where you have to eat, and I don't eat inside at restaurants. If I did see someone mask-less in say a grocery store, I would snap at the perp, flee in the opposite direction,  and speak to the store manager and chew him or her out for not enforcing the must wear mask rule. Outside I very rarely wear a mask, and try to keep my distance from people. If I can't I turn away and face a wall, or if on a tight hiking trail with someone coming at me from the opposite direction, slip on the mask briefly. I certainly would not spend any time standing and/or talking  to someone less than say about 10 feet away, as opposed to just keep moving along. We now know very well what spreads the virus and what does not.

I hope to be near the head of the line in getting the vaccine when it comes out. I will let you know how that works out.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 10/21 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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10/11: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,991,069 (+45,564 | ΔW Change: ↑26.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)
• Deaths: 219,695 (+413 | ΔW Change: ↑23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

10/12: <M>

• Cases: 8,037,789 (+46,720 | ΔW Change: ↑9.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 220,011 (+316 | ΔW Change: ↓24.94% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

10/13: <T>

• Cases: 8,090,080 (+52,291 | ΔW Change: ↓2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
• Deaths: 220,841 (+830 | ΔW Change: ↓13.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

10/14: <W>

• Cases: 8,150,043 (+59,963 | ΔW Change: ↑12.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 221,843 (+1,002 | ΔW Change: ↑4.16% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/15: <Þ>

• Cases: 8,216,315 (+66,272 | ΔW Change: ↑15.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.81%)
• Deaths: 222,717 (+874 | ΔW Change: ↓8.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)

10/16: <F>

• Cases: 8,286,824 (+70,509 | ΔW Change: ↑15.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)
• Deaths: 223,625 (+908 | ΔW Change: ↓0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)

10/17: <S>

• Cases: 8,342,665 (+55,841 | ΔW Change: ↑9.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.67%)
• Deaths: 224,282 (+657 | ΔW Change: ↑3.63% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

10/18: <Sunday>

• Cases: 8,387,790 (+45,125 | ΔW Change: ↓0.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 224,730 (+448 | ΔW Change: ↑8.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/19: <M>

• Cases: 8,456,653 (+68,863 | ΔW Change: ↑47.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 225,222 (+492 | ΔW Change: ↑55.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

10/20 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 8,519,665 (+63,012 | ΔW Change: ↑17.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.75%)
• Deaths: 226,138 (+916 | ΔW Change: ↑10.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)

10/21 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 8,584,819 (+65,154 | ΔW Change: ↑8.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.76%)
• Deaths: 227,409 (+1,271 | ΔW Change: ↑26.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I’m suprised there’s been so little mention of the VRBPAC meeting tomorrow.  Below is a link with information about the meeting and how to attend online:

https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-october-22-2020-meeting-announcement

[Tintrlvr]

Why are people who get Covid in CT or RI TEN! times more likely to die than someone who gets Covid in ID or NE.  That's weird right?  It seems to really hit the north east the hardest (just like gingivitis!), is it because they got hit earlier and we didn't know as much about  keeping people alive?  Where their hospitals overrun?  Or just worse?  It's not black people driving the numbers, are people in Hartford just that much fatter than Boise?  Population density?


Ten times more is a LOT, there has to be a reason for the difference.

Testing levels were well under a tenth of what they are now back then, so only a tiny fraction of cases, mostly only the most severe, were reported during that initial outbreak. In actuality, there were still more cases in New York in March-April than there have been in any other state, by far. It’s as simple as that. I don’t think you’re a fool, and this should be obvious to anyone paying attention.

Death rates from new cases in the region now from the virus are no different than anywhere else.

but NY doesn't have the same levels that the rest of New England does



why is NY 1/5 of what CT is?

I assume this is just something wonky with how they are generating their “estimates”. For example, they may be assuming that positivity rates are the right thing to consider when trying to determine the “real” number of cases in March-April, which could result in an undercount of cases in places that were testing a lot, like RI. But that method carries with it a prior assumption that death rates *were* different in different places. Instead, I assert that death rates themselves are the best indicator of how many cases there were in March-April, i.e., death rates should have been roughly the same elsewhere.

I do agree death rates were lower after June or so, as ventilators were used less, infections caught earlier, and dexamethasone and other steroids used to prevent cytokine storms.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.ft.com/content/4842aab1-7cc8-4973-b98a-03edf1eeae54
Schools play limited role in spread of Covid-19, studies signal
European research boosts policymakers who fear shutdown harms students and leaves parents unable to work

A series of studies has cast doubt on the role of schools in spreading the coronavirus as governments across Europe weigh fresh restrictions to slow a second wave of infections.

Studies in Germany and Norway, as well as two reviews focusing on education globally, suggest a renewal of widespread school closures would have a limited effect on curbing Sars-Cov-2, the virus that causes Covid-19.

The findings are likely to bolster policymakers concerned that school closures would risk more students falling behind and limit the ability of parents to return to work.

More and more evidence emerging that Pr. Trump was right.

Incredible that it isn't one of main topics in USA. Too fast closure and too slow re-opening of schools might lead to the lost generation of kids from poor, often low-educated, often minority, often single-mom etc families. I guess it's because Dems elite and journos are mostly white libs whose children are doing just fine on remote learning. And, obviously, because agreeing with Trump BAAAD is big No-No.

[It’s so Joever]

https://www.ft.com/content/4842aab1-7cc8-4973-b98a-03edf1eeae54
Schools play limited role in spread of Covid-19, studies signal
European research boosts policymakers who fear shutdown harms students and leaves parents unable to work

A series of studies has cast doubt on the role of schools in spreading the coronavirus as governments across Europe weigh fresh restrictions to slow a second wave of infections.

Studies in Germany and Norway, as well as two reviews focusing on education globally, suggest a renewal of widespread school closures would have a limited effect on curbing Sars-Cov-2, the virus that causes Covid-19.

The findings are likely to bolster policymakers concerned that school closures would risk more students falling behind and limit the ability of parents to return to work.

More and more evidence emerging that Pr. Trump was right.

Incredible that it isn't one of main topics in USA. Too fast closure and too slow re-opening of schools might lead to the lost generation of kids from poor, often low-educated, often minority, often single-mom etc families. I guess it's because Dems elite and journos are mostly white libs whose children are doing just fine on remote learning. And, obviously, because agreeing with Trump BAAAD is big No-No.

Welp, it was nice having an empty ignore list for a few months. All good things come to an end.

[OkThen]

If anyone on earth can think they can make an informed determination about COVID spread in K-12 schools based on what we know (ESPECIALLY in the US)... yikes. Imagine if we tested K-12 kids as much as we did college students...

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://www.ft.com/content/4842aab1-7cc8-4973-b98a-03edf1eeae54
Schools play limited role in spread of Covid-19, studies signal
European research boosts policymakers who fear shutdown harms students and leaves parents unable to work

A series of studies has cast doubt on the role of schools in spreading the coronavirus as governments across Europe weigh fresh restrictions to slow a second wave of infections.

Studies in Germany and Norway, as well as two reviews focusing on education globally, suggest a renewal of widespread school closures would have a limited effect on curbing Sars-Cov-2, the virus that causes Covid-19.

The findings are likely to bolster policymakers concerned that school closures would risk more students falling behind and limit the ability of parents to return to work.

More and more evidence emerging that Pr. Trump was right.

Incredible that it isn't one of main topics in USA. Too fast closure and too slow re-opening of schools might lead to the lost generation of kids from poor, often low-educated, often minority, often single-mom etc families. I guess it's because Dems elite and journos are mostly white libs whose children are doing just fine on remote learning. And, obviously, because agreeing with Trump BAAAD is big No-No.

Welcome back Russian !

Great signature.