TX - UTexas/Texas Tribune: Trump+5

[n1240]

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/09/texas-poll-donald-trump-joe-biden/

Trump 50
Biden 45

9/25-10/4, 908 LV

[Terry the Fat Shark]

note: pollster is yougov.

[NOVA Green]

Throw it in the average I guess, despite the fact that it likely significantly under-represents working class Tejanos....

We could also throw it in the garbage can as well, but gotta do my usual Mantra: "Texas is a tough State to Poll".

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Yeah, figured it'd be closer to Rasmussen.

I think it's safe to say that polling is all over the place and no one truly knows how Texas is gonna fall on November 3. I wouldn't be surprised if state polling becomes a growing problem for the next couple cycles as it firmly positions itself as a purple state

[Hammy]

They were four points to the right in 2018.

Between this and the PPP poll the result could be between R+2 and D+2.

[Landslide Lyndon]

They seem to think that the electorate will be heavily Republican.
Biden gets 96% of Democrats, wins independents by 8, and still is 5 points behind.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

They seem to think that the electorate will be heavily Republican.
Biden gets 96% of Democrats, wins independents by 8, and still is 5 points behind.

You can say that again. Beto got 92% of Democrats and won Independents by 3.

If Biden's margins are true and the electorate is anywhere close to 2018, TX could come down to the wire

[Stuart98]

Biden -1, Trump +2 since their last poll.

[VAR]

Any TX poll that has Trump winning by more than Cruz is pure garbage. Pollsters that called Cruz’s narrow victory in 2018 show a toss-up race, not a comfortable Trump lead.

Q-Pac cultists shouldn’t object to this poll though, since it’s “not a huge outlier”.

[Tender Branson]

Texas remains ca. Trump+2 on average ...

It's not there yet for Biden to win this year.

Also: Biden only invests 6 Mio. $ in ads in the state, a small amount, considering he has 600 Mio. $ cash on hand. If they see it as winnable, they would invest 60 Mio. $ there.

[wbrocks67]

Texas remains ca. Trump+2 on average ...

It's not there yet for Biden to win this year.

Also: Biden only invests 6 Mio. $ in ads in the state, a small amount, considering he has 600 Mio. $ cash on hand. If they see it as winnable, they would invest 60 Mio. $ there.

This is not true. They don't *need* it, so they're not going to invest a ton.

This one is clearly again a Rasmussen-type slight outlier. The majority of polls we've seen have showed a dead heat. And again, if Biden is winning Indies by 5% more than Beto, and getting even more Dems, then he's not gonna lose by double Beto's margin.

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Texas President by University of Texas on 2020-10-04

Summary: D: 45%, R: 50%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

Texas remains ca. Trump+2 on average ...

It's not there yet for Biden to win this year.

Also: Biden only invests 6 Mio. $ in ads in the state, a small amount, considering he has 600 Mio. $ cash on hand. If they see it as winnable, they would invest 60 Mio. $ there.

This is not true. They don't *need* it, so they're not going to invest a ton.

This one is clearly again a Rasmussen-type slight outlier. The majority of polls we've seen have showed a dead heat. And again, if Biden is winning Indies by 5% more than Beto, and getting even more Dems, then he's not gonna lose by double Beto's margin.

But with 600 Mio. $ cash on hand right now, Biden could go for the kill in TX.

Investing 6 Mio. $ in such a big state is lousy and defensive.

They need to dump 50-100 Mio. $ into the state.

What are they going to do with 300 Mio. $ in leftover money ? Especially if Biden loses the election ?

[wbrocks67]

Texas remains ca. Trump+2 on average ...

It's not there yet for Biden to win this year.

Also: Biden only invests 6 Mio. $ in ads in the state, a small amount, considering he has 600 Mio. $ cash on hand. If they see it as winnable, they would invest 60 Mio. $ there.

This is not true. They don't *need* it, so they're not going to invest a ton.

This one is clearly again a Rasmussen-type slight outlier. The majority of polls we've seen have showed a dead heat. And again, if Biden is winning Indies by 5% more than Beto, and getting even more Dems, then he's not gonna lose by double Beto's margin.

But with 600 Mio. $ cash on hand right now, Biden could go for the kill in TX.

Investing 6 Mio. $ in such a big state is lousy and defensive.

They need to dump 50-100 Mio. $ into the state.

What are they going to do with 300 Mio. $ in leftover money ? Especially if Biden loses the election ?

They won't have leftover $$ bc they're going to max out everything they can in the core 6 battleground states. Again, they're not going to dump a ton of money into TX when they don't neeed it to win.

[Ljube]

Biden doesn't need Texas to win the election.

[wbrocks67]

Although, really 9/25-10/4 too? That's ridiculously large sample period too. That encompasses 4 days pre-debate and then post-debate too, right up into Trumps diagnosis

[Horus]

This is obviously a good poll for Trump but with half of it from before the first debate it only tells us so much. Still, Texas is lean R

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MoE: 3.25%

Hawkins 2%
Jorgensen 2%
Someone else 1%

[Buzz]

Good poll for Trump, but he’s also only at 50%.  The fact that we’re less than a month before the election and Texas is this close is sad.

[MillennialModerate]

In THIS environment for Trump to be up 5 says to me the state is further away then I thought.

I was really excited by the prospect of it Texas being a lean blue state before the rust belt becomes lean red - for a decade or so.

[wbrocks67]

In THIS environment for Trump to be up 5 says to me the state is further away then I thought.

I was really excited by the prospect of it Texas being a lean blue state before the rust belt becomes lean red - for a decade or so.

Maybe you should average the polls then, instead of basing off of one poll.

[wbrocks67]

This poll also seems to suggest that ... nothing has changed since 2019's R+9 win. Which seems incredibly unlikely.

In a generic congressional race pitting an unnamed Republican against an unnamed Democrat, the poll found the Republican had a 7-percentage-point advantage (51%-44%) among Texas voters. In a generic race for the state Legislature, a Republican would have an 8-percentage-point edge (51%-43%)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In THIS environment for Trump to be up 5 says to me the state is further away then I thought.

I was really excited by the prospect of it Texas being a lean blue state before the rust belt becomes lean red - for a decade or so.

Maybe you should average the polls then, instead of basing off of one poll.

The problem is that when PPP polls the race, they don't poll the Senate race, HEGAR has never lead in a single poll against Cornyn and remains 10 pts behind Cornyn, that's why it's Lean R TX

You gov and Rassy have showed HEGAR down 50/40

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

note: pollster is yougov.

Garbage in Garbage out

[YE]

TX polls either seem to show a +5 race or a tie. Given possible polling issues in the state (although I'm not yet on board with annual NV-like overperformances here), I suspect the latter but weirdly I may have been too overconfident in TX earlier in the year.