CO-SurveyUSA: Biden +10

[ON Progressive]

https://www.9news.com/article/news/local/local-politics/election-2020-9news-colorado-politics-poll-biden-hickenlooper-gardner-trump-prop-115-ballot/73-9b4f6099-72df-4836-8d62-d81eceb981ec

Biden 50
Trump 40
Others 5%
Undecided 4%

[Skill and Chance]

Between this and Biden +7 in MN, Survey USA is not picking up much of a Biden surge.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Glorious!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 1-6
1021 likely voters
MoE: 3.9%

[Rand]

R O C K Y   M O U N T A I N   J O E

[Bootes Void]

Colorado will be 56-43 Biden

[ProgressiveModerate]

Nice, but wish it was just a tad more considering the national environment is D+10 RN. I'm ok if CO trends a bit to the right though, since it's unlikely to cost us it's 9 EVs and the senate seat at this point

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

R O C K Y   M O U N T A I N   J O E

JOE DENVER

[It’s so Joever]

Nice, but wish it was just a tad more considering the national environment is D+10 RN. I'm ok if CO trends a bit to the right though, since it's unlikely to cost us it's 9 EVs and the senate seat at this point

SUSA skews kinda R. I would say CO will be around D+13.

[Hope For A New Era]

Nice, but wish it was just a tad more considering the national environment is D+10 RN. I'm ok if CO trends a bit to the right though, since it's unlikely to cost us it's 9 EVs and the senate seat at this point

Between this and Biden +7 in MN, Survey USA is not picking up much of a Biden surge.

Because they're the most inelastic and polarized states outside the South.

Actually, they have a lot in common. They feature a combination of
- one very large, very Democratic city
- hilly/foresty rural Democratic areas
- Great Plains Republican areas

[Calthrina950]

Nice, but wish it was just a tad more considering the national environment is D+10 RN. I'm ok if CO trends a bit to the right though, since it's unlikely to cost us it's 9 EVs and the senate seat at this point

Between this and Biden +7 in MN, Survey USA is not picking up much of a Biden surge.

Because they're the most inelastic and polarized states outside the South.

Actually, they have a lot in common. They feature a combination of
- one very large, very Democratic city
- hilly/foresty rural Democratic areas
- Great Plains Republican areas

I agree fully. As I've said repeatedly, Biden will win Colorado by low double digits. And this just provides further confirmation of that.

[kireev]

Clinton +1 sample.

[TheLaRocca]

Nice, but wish it was just a tad more considering the national environment is D+10 RN. I'm ok if CO trends a bit to the right though, since it's unlikely to cost us it's 9 EVs and the senate seat at this point

Between this and Biden +7 in MN, Survey USA is not picking up much of a Biden surge.

Because they're the most inelastic and polarized states outside the South.

Actually, they have a lot in common. They feature a combination of
- one very large, very Democratic city
- hilly/foresty rural Democratic areas
- Great Plains Republican areas

I agree fully. As I've said repeatedly, Biden will win Colorado by low double digits. And this just provides further confirmation of that.

54% Biden
42% Trump

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

These undecideds will break for Biden and he's going to win by something like 12/12.5.

Actually, they have a lot in common. They feature a combination of
- one very large, very Democratic city
- hilly/foresty rural Democratic areas
- Great Plains Republican areas

Rural D areas in Colorado are wealthy ski/recreation resort areas while the rural D areas in Minnesota are swinging R - I wouldn't really put these in the same category. Also it's stretching it a little bit to call western MN "plains" states, although I can see the argument. The prairie pothole in MN is certainly different from the eastern plains of Colorado though.

The dominant similarity between MN and CO is having far far above average college attainment rates, even in rural areas of the state. CO is a national hub for young, wealthy college graduates and MN is basically the same but for the upper midwest (not to mention having a good public school system and high college attendance, which keeps young college grads at home).

[Calthrina950]

Nice, but wish it was just a tad more considering the national environment is D+10 RN. I'm ok if CO trends a bit to the right though, since it's unlikely to cost us it's 9 EVs and the senate seat at this point

Between this and Biden +7 in MN, Survey USA is not picking up much of a Biden surge.

Because they're the most inelastic and polarized states outside the South.

Actually, they have a lot in common. They feature a combination of
- one very large, very Democratic city
- hilly/foresty rural Democratic areas
- Great Plains Republican areas

I agree fully. As I've said repeatedly, Biden will win Colorado by low double digits. And this just provides further confirmation of that.

54% Biden
42% Trump

A very reasonable breakdown, yes, and similar to that between Jared Polis and Walker Stapleton in 2018. I've repeatedly said that Biden will win by a margin comparable to Polis, and the county map will probably look very similar as well, with Biden picking up Pueblo, Huerfano, Chaffee, and Garfield Counties.

[TheLaRocca]

Nice, but wish it was just a tad more considering the national environment is D+10 RN. I'm ok if CO trends a bit to the right though, since it's unlikely to cost us it's 9 EVs and the senate seat at this point

Between this and Biden +7 in MN, Survey USA is not picking up much of a Biden surge.

Because they're the most inelastic and polarized states outside the South.

Actually, they have a lot in common. They feature a combination of
- one very large, very Democratic city
- hilly/foresty rural Democratic areas
- Great Plains Republican areas

I agree fully. As I've said repeatedly, Biden will win Colorado by low double digits. And this just provides further confirmation of that.

54% Biden
42% Trump

A very reasonable breakdown, yes, and similar to that between Jared Polis and Walker Stapleton in 2018. I've repeatedly said that Biden will win by a margin comparable to Polis, and the county map will probably look very similar as well, with Biden picking up Pueblo, Huerfano, Chaffee, and Garfield Counties.

Yeah, I'm guessing Colorado is the kind of state Democrats overpreform in (similar to CA/TX/AZ).

The Dem base in Colorado is a mix of Big city democrats, white rural educateds, and hispanic (assimilated) rural working-class. The last of the three has been trending Republican but is by far the smallest. Suburban Independents hard trending Democrat.

[Calthrina950]

Nice, but wish it was just a tad more considering the national environment is D+10 RN. I'm ok if CO trends a bit to the right though, since it's unlikely to cost us it's 9 EVs and the senate seat at this point

Between this and Biden +7 in MN, Survey USA is not picking up much of a Biden surge.

Because they're the most inelastic and polarized states outside the South.

Actually, they have a lot in common. They feature a combination of
- one very large, very Democratic city
- hilly/foresty rural Democratic areas
- Great Plains Republican areas

I agree fully. As I've said repeatedly, Biden will win Colorado by low double digits. And this just provides further confirmation of that.

54% Biden
42% Trump

A very reasonable breakdown, yes, and similar to that between Jared Polis and Walker Stapleton in 2018. I've repeatedly said that Biden will win by a margin comparable to Polis, and the county map will probably look very similar as well, with Biden picking up Pueblo, Huerfano, Chaffee, and Garfield Counties.

Yeah, I'm guessing Colorado is the kind of state Democrats overpreform in (similar to CA/TX/AZ).

The Dem base in Colorado is a mix of Big city democrats, white rural educateds, and hispanic (assimilated) rural working-class. The last of the three has been trending Republican but is by far the smallest. Suburban Independents hard trending Democrat.

You're right, and I've reflected on Colorado's demographic and political diversity here: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=304491.msg7573779#msg7573779. Obviously, the Democratic Coalition is ascendant here, and unless Republicans can regain lost ground with college-educated suburbanites and independent voters, they will continue to be at a disadvantage here. Moreover, some of the largest Republican base counties-such as Douglas, El Paso, Mesa, and Weld-have become more Democratic in recent years, and combined with the trends elsewhere, makes things more difficult for Republicans electorally.

[Tender Branson]

CO will be around 56-41 IMO.

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Colorado President by Survey USA on 2020-10-06

Summary: D: 50%, R: 40%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[wbrocks67]

Clinton +1 sample.

what kind of nonsense is this?? also again, 10% other/undecided is too much.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This might be the minimum for Biden here.

[Xing]

Safe D, nothing to see here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It looks like IA, which was a D state is going the way of CO, if D's win IA, they clinch 272 without VA and will clinch the Senate without NC


IA was like CO before 2014, Ernst is a weak incumbent and isn't Grassley whom helped Trump win IA in 2016