Rasmussen: PA Sen. Casey (D) 56%, Santorum (R) 33%

[Gabu]

The Rendell polling was undoubtedly using the exact same samples as the Casey polling above.  I don't see your point.

There wasn't just one.  I know of at least three polls that showed Rendell with double-digit leads, two of which put him near +20, and there was that SUSA approval poll that gave him over 60% approval.  All of the polls were done by different companies.

[Sam Spade]

The Rendell polling was undoubtedly using the exact same samples as the Casey polling above.  I don't see your point.

There wasn't just one.  I know of at least three polls that showed Rendell with double-digit leads, two of which put him near +20, and there was that SUSA approval poll that gave him over 60% approval.  All of the polls were done by different companies.

I understand this and agree with it, but I don't think you're getting my point.

When we have three surveys that show Rendell up double digits and two surveys which show Casey up double digits, we do not have five "different" polls.

The Quinnipiac and Rasmussen samples were undoubtedly both questioned on both the Casey and Rendell races simultaneously, meaning both were subject to any problems with the samples should there be any.  Same with the Franklin and Marshall survey.

So, only two polls have shown Casey up by double digits this month and three have shown Rendell up by double digits, two of those being the same that showed Casey up by double digits.

[Nym90]

Are all repubicans suddenly deserting Pensylvania or something.

That's exactly what I asked the last time one of these came out.  Every poll of the last five or so that we've seen out of Pennsylvania showed the Democrat close to or over 20 points in the lead.

I don't get it.

One such poll is a fluke, but five is clearly a trend.

Are WalterMitty and Boss Tweed still standing by their predictions of a Santorum win?

Five polls?

We haven't had a poll on this race in three weeks except for this one, the last being Q (Casey +13) and SV (Casey +8) on the 8th and 7th.  Even this poll is sort of stale at 9 days, but it's the best we have. 

Maybe, you're thinking of the Gov. race, though it's the same story there, except we have the SUSA approval rate jump in that race to back up the numbers and that's not that great of a trend-marker.

Gabu was the one who said five; I just copied him and assumed he was right. Blame him.