12 swing states and 2 districts
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  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  12 swing states and 2 districts 		« previous next »
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Poll
Question: Vote for the ones Biden will win
#1
Nevada		  
#2
Minnesota		  
#3
Michigan		  
#4
NE02		  
#5
ME02		  
#6
Flordia		  
#7
Arizona		  
#8
Gerogia		  
#9
Pennsylvania		  
#10
Texas		  
#11
Iowa		  
#12
Ohio		  
#13
Wisconsin		  
#14
North Carolina		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 112

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Author Topic: 12 swing states and 2 districts  (Read 2117 times)
Joe Boden
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« on: October 08, 2020, 07:03:07 PM »
I think Biden gets 334 maybe 335
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2020, 07:05:24 PM »
I think your keyboard might have a key or two stuck.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2020, 09:14:59 PM »
All of them except Texas.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2020, 09:28:42 PM »
All of the above.
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Horus
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2020, 09:30:43 PM »
First four and Pennsylvania
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Mexican Wolf
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2020, 09:41:56 PM »
« Edited: October 08, 2020, 11:05:04 PM by Mexican Wolf »
Nevada, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Arizona. I think Trump will hold Georgia, Florida, and Texas narrowly; Ohio is a tossup.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2020, 10:35:58 PM »
Another one of these swing state threads that might as well just ask "Do you think Texas will flip?"
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mileslunn
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« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2020, 10:36:02 PM »
I think unless polls massively wrong or dramatic late swing, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin Biden has.  Nebraska 02 and Arizona likely Biden.  Florida a bit closer but still slight edge for Biden.  North Carolina, Ohio, Maine-02 and Georgia are all toss ups but I gave first to Biden, next three to Trump but all could go either way.  Iowa and Texas still favour Trump, but if Biden is ahead by double digits (which I don't think he will be) then he takes those.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2020, 11:13:10 PM »

This. 413 is happening.
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Big Abraham
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« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2020, 11:47:37 PM »
413 is not happening because Texas, Iowa, and (probably) Maine's 2nd and Georgia are not happening, and even the others aren't certain. But for now, I'm comfortable giving all except the above four to Biden
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2020, 11:49:46 PM »
Also, OP: I live in the State of Florida, not "Flordia."
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2020, 11:52:39 PM »
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: October 09, 2020, 12:46:05 AM »
What's so bad about being optimistic?
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Hammy
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« Reply #13 on: October 09, 2020, 01:02:33 AM »
NV/MN/MI/PA/WI and probably AZ if they both vote the same way as I suspect is likely. Florida's a possibility, Texas is a lower possibility.


Optimism at the cost of realism is not a good way to go about things.  TX/NC are still more likely to go to Trump than Biden, and Kemp has demonstrated he's above the law and willing to go to whatever lengths necessary to make sure Republicans win the state.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #14 on: October 09, 2020, 01:22:28 AM »

Setting yourself up for disappointment most of the time?
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #15 on: October 09, 2020, 01:50:57 AM »

If you're an optimist in an election year, you get 10 months of guaranteed happiness in the exchange for maybe being disappointed on election night.

If you're a pessimist in an election year, you get 10 months of guaranteed misery in exchange for maybe being positively surprised on election night.

That's why SirWoodbury is probably a much more happy and fulfilled person (even though he'll be severely disappointed on election night) than any of the gloomy democrats who will start feeling angst over the 2024 election on November 4th even if Biden wins by 413.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #16 on: October 09, 2020, 04:38:30 AM »
All but IA, ME-2, and TX, all of which are close. 368-170. OH narrowly goes D as it did in 1976 and 1992.
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #17 on: October 09, 2020, 02:20:40 PM »
ALL OF THEM
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #18 on: October 09, 2020, 02:51:21 PM »
Can this thread be locked or moved to their PMs?

And to think this all started because folks are a little more bullish than others
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YE
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« Reply #19 on: October 09, 2020, 07:23:58 PM »
« Edited: October 09, 2020, 07:30:06 PM by YE »
Quote from: Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia on October 09, 2020, 02:51:21 PM
Can this thread be locked or moved to their PMs?

And to think this all started because folks are a little more bullish than others

Cleaned up.

Honestly I’m not really more bullish than I was a week or so. I’d like for 413 but there’s a small dilemma. I’m fairly sure on all of these but TX, OH, and IA. Fundamentals suggest just TX but polling suggests OH/IA are tossups at worst. Yet I don’t fully trust polling in those two states and our polling numbers in TX seem to range from a near tie to a comfy Trump lead. Given the polling issues in the state, I’m inclined to believe the former but a statistical tie is not a victory either.

Voted all but TX and IA reluctantly.

Also lol at the notion that a Trump victory is more likely than 413.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #20 on: October 09, 2020, 07:37:54 PM »
413 is happening, obviously.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #21 on: November 12, 2020, 12:48:22 AM »
Quote from: YE on October 09, 2020, 07:23:58 PM
Also lol at the notion that a Trump victory is more likely than 413.









I got every single presidential contest right except for Georgia, and every single senate contest right except for Maine. Peons hehe
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