KS-Newsmax/VCreek/AMG - Bollier +3

[tagimaucia]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1316777099349258241

https://www.newsmax.com/john-gizzi/kansas-senate-poll-marshall-bollier-kassebaum/2020/10/15/id/992052/

Although Kansas last sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in 1932, national Republican leaders are worried enough about losing the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Pat Roberts to pump $7.2 million into the race for his seat.

According to a recently-completed VCreek/AMG poll, Democrat Senate hopeful Barbara Bollier is leading Republican Rep. Roger Marshall by 45.39 to 41.87 per cent.

This will probably be the first and only time I post a newsmax.com link.

[VAR]

This was already posted, I think.

[tagimaucia]

This was already posted, I think.

There's another Bollier +3 on page two, but it appears to be a completely different poll.  This one was just made public this morning as far as I can tell.

However, the decimal points seem to be exactly the same, so maybe it is the same poll?  IDK.

[KaiserDave]

Wow
Lean/Tilt R

[VAR]

This was already posted, I think.

There's another Bollier +3 on page two, but it appears to be a completely different poll.  This one was just made public this morning as far as I can tell.

538 says that poll is AMG/VCreek as well.

[tagimaucia]

Never mind, it is the same.  My bad!  Why the hell is Newsmax writing it up a week later though? It was supposed to be embargoed until now but got leaked early?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Never mind, it is the same.  My bad!  Why the hell is Newsmax writing it up a week later though? It was supposed to be embargoed until now but got leaked early?

Yes, IIRC it was leaked by Kobach allies inside the Kansas Republican party.

[Pericles]

Maybe this is a bit like the Jones+12% internal they did in 2017? Still, it looks close, but Marshall is still clearly favored.

[Skye]

The "4D chess" take would probably be that this race Leans R and even though Marshall still has the edge, the GOP feels compelled to show that Marshall needs help so money starts pouring in. Bollier severely outraised him in Q3.