KS-Newsmax/VCreek/AMG - Bollier +3

[Hope For A New Era]

I still think Marshall will win by 7-8 points. This is TN-SEN 2018 all over again.

Tennessee is your typical race-polarized socially conservative southern state. It has suburbs that stubbornly refuse to realign, an unhealthy love of culture-war red meat, an excess of religion, and a severe lack of education.

Kansas is socially moderate, lacks race-polarization, and is effectively a three-party system. A Democratic governor was elected by a comfortable margin two years ago and the Republican party is on the verge of losing its legislative supermajorities (that it never really had anyway, because, again, three-party system). It's also (slightly) pro-choice according to polls, less religious and more educated than most Republican-leaning states, and its suburbs are realigning very quickly.

This is the Republican-state equivalent of Minnesota vs. Massachusetts. Massachusetts is "more Democratic," but it's also much more likely to elect a Republican to statewide office, because Massachusetts is a pragmatic and elastic state, while Minnesota is polarized and full of partisan hacks on both sides.

[Pollster]

This race should serve as a reminder of how possible it is for Democrats to overperform in traditionally Republican states when a well-funded candidate who is credible as a messenger and leader runs a competent and disciplined campaign, even against a fairly mainstream Republican opponent.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I still think Marshall will win by 7-8 points. This is TN-SEN 2018 all over again.

Different states.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

VCreek/AMG
September 29-30
3104 likely voters
MoE: 1.75%

Bollier 45%
Marshall 42%
Buckley 2%
Undecided 11%

[libertpaulian]

I WANT TO BELIEVE

[Pollster]

According to the release, this was an IVR-only poll. This methodology typically produces a Republican-leaning house effect, though this could change as seniors move towards Dems this cycle.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I still think Marshall will win by 7-8 points. This is TN-SEN 2018 all over again.

No, it’s not. KS is not as Republican as TN, not to mention that the trends in KS are much more favorable. KS has a large College educated and suburban population, while TN has the highest population of evangelicals in the country. There is a non zero chance KS is within single digits, Trump will win TN by over 20 points. Also candidate wise, Bredesen last held office in 2011, Boiler is an incumbent state senator. This race is infinitely more winnable than TN-SEN 2018

Anyway, Tilt D.

Couldn't have said it any better.

[GALeftist]

Oof. Horrible poll for Marshall. I'll believe a blue Kansas when I see it, but Tilt R at best.

[MT Treasurer]

There’s nothing remotely surprising about this. KS was never going to be "Likely/Safe R" with a candidate like Bollier in an election in which Republicans are struggling to defend IA, SC, AK, etc., and Laura Kelly's 2018 map is nowhere near as difficult to replicate (with a smaller D margin) as people think.

Pure Toss-up, as it’s been since Roberts' retirement (if not earlier). One of the few good calls I made this cycle.

This race should serve as a reminder of how possible it is for Democrats to overperform in traditionally Republican states when a well-funded candidate who is credible as a messenger and leader runs a competent and disciplined campaign, even against a fairly mainstream Republican opponent.

You’d think the 2010s would have taught people not to underestimate red state Democrats rather than just dismiss their chances with hollow buzzwords like ‘polarization’, but apparently (still) not the case.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201008_KS.pdf

ABOUT: VCreek/AMG has conducted Polling, Data Analysis and Research for political clients
ranging from Federal and Statewide campaigns to municipal and legislative campaigns; to
corporations, public policy groups and political action committees since 2012. VCreek/AMG
last polled KS statewide in 2018 on behalf of the Kobach campaign. Johannes has twenty-two
years experience in campaign management, campaign consulting and advertising in campaigns
across the U.S.
DISCLOSURES: This public poll is possible because a confluence of events in which
VCreek/AMG has the tools to conduct a poll in a competitive high-profile election and is not
involved in any of the competing campaigns. VCreek/AMG and JD Johannes have no political
clients in KS at this time. VCreek/AMG has ongoing operations in support of GOP candidates in
PA, OH, MI, WI, CO, MT, IA and OK. Johannes was involved in Jake LaTurner’s first
campaign for State Senate in 2012 and last talked with him about a year ago. Johannes was on
Senator Brownback’s Staff at the same time as Amanda Adkins and worked with the KS
Republican Party when Adkins was Chair of the Party. Johannes has known Ron Estes since
2002 and donated to his Congressional Campaign in the 2018 Cycle.

This is not a Marshall or NRSC internal it is a Kobach internal for all intents and purposes to damage Marshall's general election chances.

[Hope For A New Era]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201008_KS.pdf

ABOUT: VCreek/AMG has conducted Polling, Data Analysis and Research for political clients
ranging from Federal and Statewide campaigns to municipal and legislative campaigns; to
corporations, public policy groups and political action committees since 2012. VCreek/AMG
last polled KS statewide in 2018 on behalf of the Kobach campaign. Johannes has twenty-two
years experience in campaign management, campaign consulting and advertising in campaigns
across the U.S.
DISCLOSURES: This public poll is possible because a confluence of events in which
VCreek/AMG has the tools to conduct a poll in a competitive high-profile election and is not
involved in any of the competing campaigns. VCreek/AMG and JD Johannes have no political
clients in KS at this time. VCreek/AMG has ongoing operations in support of GOP candidates in
PA, OH, MI, WI, CO, MT, IA and OK. Johannes was involved in Jake LaTurner’s first
campaign for State Senate in 2012 and last talked with him about a year ago. Johannes was on
Senator Brownback’s Staff at the same time as Amanda Adkins and worked with the KS
Republican Party when Adkins was Chair of the Party. Johannes has known Ron Estes since
2002 and donated to his Congressional Campaign in the 2018 Cycle.

This is not a Marshall or NRSC internal it is a Kobach internal for all intents and purposes to damage Marshall's general election chances.

Kobach would not try to actively hurt Marshall in the election. He is a party hack through and through. He would not risk losing the seat.

[brucejoel99]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201008_KS.pdf

ABOUT: VCreek/AMG has conducted Polling, Data Analysis and Research for political clients
ranging from Federal and Statewide campaigns to municipal and legislative campaigns; to
corporations, public policy groups and political action committees since 2012. VCreek/AMG
last polled KS statewide in 2018 on behalf of the Kobach campaign. Johannes has twenty-two
years experience in campaign management, campaign consulting and advertising in campaigns
across the U.S.
DISCLOSURES: This public poll is possible because a confluence of events in which
VCreek/AMG has the tools to conduct a poll in a competitive high-profile election and is not
involved in any of the competing campaigns. VCreek/AMG and JD Johannes have no political
clients in KS at this time. VCreek/AMG has ongoing operations in support of GOP candidates in
PA, OH, MI, WI, CO, MT, IA and OK. Johannes was involved in Jake LaTurner’s first
campaign for State Senate in 2012 and last talked with him about a year ago. Johannes was on
Senator Brownback’s Staff at the same time as Amanda Adkins and worked with the KS
Republican Party when Adkins was Chair of the Party. Johannes has known Ron Estes since
2002 and donated to his Congressional Campaign in the 2018 Cycle.

This is not a Marshall or NRSC internal it is a Kobach internal for all intents and purposes to damage Marshall's general election chances.

Kobach would not try to actively hurt Marshall in the election. He is a party hack through and through. He would not risk losing the seat.

He might if it means he can try & argue 6 years from now that he would've won had he been the nominee.

[It’s so Joever]

I still think Marshall will win by 7-8 points. This is TN-SEN 2018 all over again.

No that’s South Carolina.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Lean R, closer to tilt than Likely.. Marshall will be dragged over the line in the end by Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race in a blue wave is clearly winnable, I know the Rs don't believe in blue waves, buts it's not Safe R, it's always been a tossup, just like KS Gov was a tossup. D's won KS gov in 2002, 2006, and 2018

[Hope For A New Era]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201008_KS.pdf

ABOUT: VCreek/AMG has conducted Polling, Data Analysis and Research for political clients
ranging from Federal and Statewide campaigns to municipal and legislative campaigns; to
corporations, public policy groups and political action committees since 2012. VCreek/AMG
last polled KS statewide in 2018 on behalf of the Kobach campaign. Johannes has twenty-two
years experience in campaign management, campaign consulting and advertising in campaigns
across the U.S.
DISCLOSURES: This public poll is possible because a confluence of events in which
VCreek/AMG has the tools to conduct a poll in a competitive high-profile election and is not
involved in any of the competing campaigns. VCreek/AMG and JD Johannes have no political
clients in KS at this time. VCreek/AMG has ongoing operations in support of GOP candidates in
PA, OH, MI, WI, CO, MT, IA and OK. Johannes was involved in Jake LaTurner’s first
campaign for State Senate in 2012 and last talked with him about a year ago. Johannes was on
Senator Brownback’s Staff at the same time as Amanda Adkins and worked with the KS
Republican Party when Adkins was Chair of the Party. Johannes has known Ron Estes since
2002 and donated to his Congressional Campaign in the 2018 Cycle.

This is not a Marshall or NRSC internal it is a Kobach internal for all intents and purposes to damage Marshall's general election chances.

Kobach would not try to actively hurt Marshall in the election. He is a party hack through and through. He would not risk losing the seat.

He might if it means he can try & argue 6 years from now that he would've won had he been the nominee.

Hard to do that when everyone remembers you losing the gubernatorial race in 2018.

[brucejoel99]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201008_KS.pdf

ABOUT: VCreek/AMG has conducted Polling, Data Analysis and Research for political clients
ranging from Federal and Statewide campaigns to municipal and legislative campaigns; to
corporations, public policy groups and political action committees since 2012. VCreek/AMG
last polled KS statewide in 2018 on behalf of the Kobach campaign. Johannes has twenty-two
years experience in campaign management, campaign consulting and advertising in campaigns
across the U.S.
DISCLOSURES: This public poll is possible because a confluence of events in which
VCreek/AMG has the tools to conduct a poll in a competitive high-profile election and is not
involved in any of the competing campaigns. VCreek/AMG and JD Johannes have no political
clients in KS at this time. VCreek/AMG has ongoing operations in support of GOP candidates in
PA, OH, MI, WI, CO, MT, IA and OK. Johannes was involved in Jake LaTurner’s first
campaign for State Senate in 2012 and last talked with him about a year ago. Johannes was on
Senator Brownback’s Staff at the same time as Amanda Adkins and worked with the KS
Republican Party when Adkins was Chair of the Party. Johannes has known Ron Estes since
2002 and donated to his Congressional Campaign in the 2018 Cycle.

This is not a Marshall or NRSC internal it is a Kobach internal for all intents and purposes to damage Marshall's general election chances.

Kobach would not try to actively hurt Marshall in the election. He is a party hack through and through. He would not risk losing the seat.

He might if it means he can try & argue 6 years from now that he would've won had he been the nominee.

Hard to do that when everyone remembers you losing the gubernatorial race in 2018.

Didn't say it was a smart &/or good strategy, but it's certainly not an inconceivable one for somebody with KKKobach's political skills to be undertaking.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Republican politician pursuing a stupid, self serving and counter-productive strategy, say it isn't so!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Republican politician pursuing a stupid, self serving and counter-productive strategy, say it isn't so!

.

KS isn't a hard right state, Bob Dole and Eisenhower were mavericks and it did vote for Sebelius for Gov 2002 and 2006 and GovKelly in 2018 and Biden does well with WC voters..


That's why WVA and MO Govs are close Justice is only up by 6 and Parson up by 2 and Cooney is probably down by 6 not 15

[--]

Tilt D

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Republican politician pursuing a stupid, self serving and counter-productive strategy, say it isn't so!

.

KS isn't a hard right state, Bob Dole and Eisenhower were mavericks and it did vote for Sebelius for Gov 2002 and 2006 and GovKelly in 2018 and Biden does well with WC voters..

What part of my statement, indicates a lack of knowledge regarding KS political history?

[Badger]

The Senate looks really bleak for the Rs this year.

KS, AK, SC are all real sleeper races with the potential of a big upset.

My admittedly pessimistic gut is telling me this could be another 2,000 to repeat. Republicans got wiped out on the house losing over two dozen seats, but managed to stay even in the Senate primarily because there were an absolute ton of seriously contested Republican seats that all just barely were held onto across the board. Another push up one or two percent would have resulted in the GOP losing control the Senate four years early and by a substantial margin at that.

[Bootes Void]

GOP insiders also put out a poll in the Alabama Senate  2017 race where Jones lead by 10. This is to avoid complacency and get Kansas republicans to take the race seriously

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

From the data given, you know what the big difference between this poll and the Daily Kos one is?

Daily Kos has Marshal leading 86%-11% with Republicans. https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_KS_banner_book_2020_09_dw29u7.pdf

This pro-Kobach firm has Marshall at 60% with Republicans. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201008_KS.pdf

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Kansas Senator by Other Source on 2020-09-30

Summary: D: 45%, R: 42%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details