TX-PPP: Biden +1
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Author Topic: TX-PPP: Biden +1  (Read 2520 times)
Sestak
jk2020
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« on: October 08, 2020, 02:34:27 PM »




(Rasumussen F[inks] Off Challenge)
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2020, 02:38:03 PM »
This cancels out the Rassy poll
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2020, 02:38:09 PM »
TILT D
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2020, 02:38:30 PM »
Add a (D) as it's a private survey conducted for Texas Democrats - not quite the same thing as a standalone PPP poll and likely to be a bit more biased.

Changes with September 25-26 PPP survey for Texas Democrats

Biden 49% (+1)
Trump 48% (n/c)

With leaners
Biden 50% (+2)
Trump 48% (assuming he remains at 48% with leaners - the Tweet isn't clear) (n/c)
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Ljube
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2020, 02:39:16 PM »
Yes, Texas is the most likely upset, of all the states we expect Trump would win.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2020, 02:40:53 PM »
Pure tossup. A national environment that has Joe Biden up by around ten definitely make it possible for Texas to flip in 2020.
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Buzz
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« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2020, 02:41:49 PM »
Trump will win but by a pathetic margin.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2020, 02:46:59 PM »
It definitely looks like split voting, MT can go R for Gov and Prez and D for Senate and TX can go D for Prez and R for Senate. Bullock does have a better chance than HEGAR
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Ljube
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« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2020, 02:48:28 PM »
Quote from: MR. KAYNE WEST on October 08, 2020, 02:46:59 PM
It definitely looks like split voting, MT can go R for Gov and Prez and D for Senate and TX can go D for Prez and R for Senate. Bullock does have a better chance than HEGAR

OC, you are always overly optimistic about Dem candidate chances in Senate elections.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2020, 02:50:09 PM »
Biden +1 is what my gut feeling of Texas ultimately winds up as. Then heads will explode.
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redjohn
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« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2020, 02:51:08 PM »
For those keeping count, Clinton did not lead a single poll in TX for the entire 2016 cycle. This is Biden's fifth poll showing him leading in TX since September, with five polls showing a tied race, and eleven polls showing Trump leading. Trump seems to be favored, but not by much. He can't afford even a slight polling error in Biden's direction.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2020, 02:52:15 PM »
Toss-Up.
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exopolitician
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« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2020, 02:55:55 PM »
Delicious
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kireev
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« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2020, 02:58:29 PM »
Quote from: Beida on October 08, 2020, 02:51:08 PM
For those keeping count, Clinton did not lead a single poll in TX for the entire 2016 cycle. This is Biden's fifth poll showing him leading in TX since September, with five polls showing a tied race, and eleven polls showing Trump leading. Trump seems to be favored, but not by much. He can't afford even a slight polling error in Biden's direction.

Yep, the best one for Clinton was Trump +3 and it was from SurveyMonkey back in August... https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/texas/  538's forecast pretty much nailed the final result in TX.
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VAR
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« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2020, 03:00:20 PM »
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2020, 04:06:59 PM »
Texas at 69 cents for Trump on PredictIt is WAY overpriced at this point. Biden at 34 cents is a steal.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #16 on: October 08, 2020, 04:49:02 PM »
Full release:

https://www.texasdemocrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/TexasResults1.pdf

With leaners:

Biden 50% (+1)
Trump 49% (+1)
Completely undecided 1% (-3)
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #17 on: October 08, 2020, 06:06:21 PM »
I still expect Trump to eke out a narrow win due to Abbott f***ing with the precincts. The result is going to be an absolute embarrassment for Trump and the GOP though.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #18 on: October 08, 2020, 06:20:49 PM »
If this state is a tossup Trump is finished
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Use Your Illusion
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« Reply #19 on: October 08, 2020, 06:24:59 PM »
Ehhhh I'm not fully convinced Biden is gonna win TX but I am convinced Trump is gonna have the poorest showing a Republican has had in TX since Bush '92 when Perot ate 22% of the vote and Clinton lost only by like 3.5%


Truth be told 3.5% is probably what Trump wins by
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #20 on: October 08, 2020, 06:26:00 PM »
Quote from: Use Your Illusion on October 08, 2020, 06:24:59 PM
Ehhhh I'm not fully convinced Biden is gonna win TX but I am convinced Trump is gonna have the poorest showing a Republican has had in TX since Bush '92 when Perot ate 22% of the vote and Clinton lost only by like 3.5%


Truth be told 3.5% is probably what Trump wins by
No I think Trump loses Texas or at best doesn't won by more than 2pts max
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republican1993
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« Reply #21 on: October 08, 2020, 06:27:22 PM »
not happening but let's all go crazy over a d polling firm
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Use Your Illusion
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« Reply #22 on: October 08, 2020, 06:28:21 PM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on October 08, 2020, 06:26:00 PM
Quote from: Use Your Illusion on October 08, 2020, 06:24:59 PM
Ehhhh I'm not fully convinced Biden is gonna win TX but I am convinced Trump is gonna have the poorest showing a Republican has had in TX since Bush '92 when Perot ate 22% of the vote and Clinton lost only by like 3.5%


Truth be told 3.5% is probably what Trump wins by
No I think Trump loses Texas or at best doesn't won by more than 2pts max

Truth be told your prediction is not impossible. I just think TX is gonna TX anyway. But if you did turn out to be right it's not like I would fall over in shock about it. His campaign is a disaster
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: October 08, 2020, 06:28:58 PM »
I really don't understand people still not believing this can happen. We've actually had polls of Biden leading this year whereas with Beto we really didn't (or even close to his -2.5 margin either), and people still wont believe it?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #24 on: October 08, 2020, 06:33:21 PM »
Quote from: republican1993 on October 08, 2020, 06:27:22 PM
not happening but let's all go crazy over a d polling firm

Lol, the Rasmussen Trump + 7 TX has gotten more posts about it then this PPP poll
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