bush beat himself in 2000.

[WalterMitty]

imagine how different the election would have turned out if bush spent the final two weeks of the 2000 campaign in florida, new mexico, oregon, iowa and wisconsin...instead of california, illinois and new jersey.

the dwi story was a minor detail.  bush lost the popular vote, and if not for some legalities, the electoral votes, simply because he was arrogant and complacent.

agree?  disagree?

[WalterMitty]

Yeah and imagine if Gore had spent the final weeks in Nevada and Hew Hampshire instead of Florida. Hindsight's 20/20.

no, gore did the right thing by camping out in florida the last week or so.

dont forget, most floridians went to the polls intending to vote for gore.

[WalterMitty]

imagine how different the election would have turned out if bush spent the final two weeks of the 2000 campaign in florida, new mexico, oregon, iowa and wisconsin...instead of california, illinois and new jersey.

the dwi story was a minor detail.  bush lost the popular vote, and if not for some legalities, the electoral votes, simply because he was arrogant and complacent.

agree?  disagree?

I agree.

Likely, Bush would have won Florida, by an insurmountable margin, and would likely have taken New Mexico and Iowa comfortably, giving him an uncontested win.  He would have won the popular vote as well, had not some sensationalist interloper and Democrat dirty trickster, engaged in a  campaign of subversion, and broke the DWI story the Thursday before the Tuesday vote.

Bush was as well hurt on election night itself when the biased networks, with the exception of Fox, were jumping over each other to declare Gore the winner in Florida, even before all Florida precincts were closed.  The panhandle was still voting, and heavily for Bush.  No doubt this early and innacurate news put a damper on Republican voters in this part of the state, and cost Bush thousands of votes.       

Yeah, right. Anyone still at home to see that wouldn't have made it to the precincts in time anyways.

there were long lines at many of the polling places.  once florida had been called, many voters in the panhandle left the line and went home.

[WalterMitty]

I think it's pretty obvious that it was Gore who lost the election. If you look down-ballot, it was a good year for Democrats, gaining 4 seats in the senate, something similar in the House and picking up a gubernatorial seat, winning a total of 8/11 of gubernatorial elections. That Gore still lost the election seems to indicate that he under-performed.

gustaf, gore didnt lose the election.

he won the popular vote and only 'lost' the electoral college by legalities and technicalities.

im not a gore fan, by any stretch.  but i am honest.

[WalterMitty]

Did Rove think the polls were wrong in California or something?

I don't understand what they were thinking in 2000 if they did target California. Maybe they weren't trying to win those states in the final weeks (I believe Nym noted that they did this to keep Dem voters home) but if I recall correctly, the Bush campaign tried to make a serious run in the state earlier in the campaign.

I don't know what they were thinking and the same goes for Dole in '96. I remember reading over and over again how the Dole people made an attempt at taking California. How could they be so foolish? Clinton was a popular incumbent Democrat - how does someone like that lose California? What a waste of time, effort and, above all, money. You'd think that the Bush people would know better.

i dont recall dole making a *serious* play at california.

the dole campaign did make pushes for states like connecticut, new hampshire, new jersey and pennsylvania.

[WalterMitty]

the dole campaign did make pushes for states like connecticut, new hampshire, new jersey and pennsylvania.

Conneticut and New Jersey? That was even more foolish idea than trying for California.

in hindsight, that may be true.

however, at the time, it didnt seem that radical.  ct and nj were relatively close in 1992.

[WalterMitty]

however, at the time, it didnt seem that radical.  ct and nj were relatively close in 1992.

They were close but did the Dole people think that they could actually make it close in left leaning states against a popular incumbent Democratic President?

im sure deep down the dole people knew it was going to be an uphill struggle to win the election.  therefore, theyd have to pull off some upsets (like ct and nj).  i guess those two states seemed easier to win than ca.

i do remember dole and kemp touring california after kemp's selection.  but, if memory serves, the convention was in san diego, so they didnt go out of their way.

the dole victory map always included states like pa, nh, nj, oh, mo and ct.

from what ive heard and read, christine todd whitman was strongly consider for vp to help bring in nj and some of the northeast.

[WalterMitty]

this is something like the dole people had in mind:

[WalterMitty]

CT isn't really what I'd call left-leaning. Democrat-leaning, yes.

Delaware should be Rep on your 96 map, Walt. Even the 2000 Bush people were apparently *shocked* at how big Gore won it.

One more note on California - I think Bush's campaigning there actually drove Gore's margin up, not just by keeping Dems from staying at home (which may have cost the GOP House seats as well, btw), but by scaring Nader supporters into going back to Gore.

there is one thing a lot of people dont realize about DE, there are a lot of blacks there.  that factor alone likely tips the scales to the dems.

[WalterMitty]

CT isn't really what I'd call left-leaning. Democrat-leaning, yes.

Delaware should be Rep on your 96 map, Walt. Even the 2000 Bush people were apparently *shocked* at how big Gore won it.

One more note on California - I think Bush's campaigning there actually drove Gore's margin up, not just by keeping Dems from staying at home (which may have cost the GOP House seats as well, btw), but by scaring Nader supporters into going back to Gore.

there is one thing a lot of people dont realize about DE, there are a lot of blacks there.  that factor alone likely tips the scales to the dems.

I know that - but it was Rep in 88, it wasn't all that lopsided in 92, and Reps did hope to retake it someday. The fact that until 2000 (or 2004 depending who you talk to ) it was the longest-running bellwether also had to something with it.
(Of course the numbers of Black Republicans hemorrhaged in the early 90s, and haven't ever recovered, from about 18% to about 10%... which may help explain why the state became more Democratic.)

hasnt it also become just a big suburb of philly?

[WalterMitty]

CT isn't really what I'd call left-leaning. Democrat-leaning, yes.

Delaware should be Rep on your 96 map, Walt. Even the 2000 Bush people were apparently *shocked* at how big Gore won it.

One more note on California - I think Bush's campaigning there actually drove Gore's margin up, not just by keeping Dems from staying at home (which may have cost the GOP House seats as well, btw), but by scaring Nader supporters into going back to Gore.

there is one thing a lot of people dont realize about DE, there are a lot of blacks there.  that factor alone likely tips the scales to the dems.

I know that - but it was Rep in 88, it wasn't all that lopsided in 92, and Reps did hope to retake it someday. The fact that until 2000 (or 2004 depending who you talk to ) it was the longest-running bellwether also had to something with it.
(Of course the numbers of Black Republicans hemorrhaged in the early 90s, and haven't ever recovered, from about 18% to about 10%... which may help explain why the state became more Democratic.)

hasnt it also become just a big suburb of philly?

That was already true in 88.

yes and hw bush did well in suburbia.