bush beat himself in 2000.

[Nym90]

Rove publically predicted a 6 point Bush win with 320 electoral votes. I think part of the idea of his poor choice of strategy was to try to project an image of confidence; that if Bush was campaigning in solidly Democratic states, he must already have the race wrapped up, so there would be no point in Democratic voters bothering to turn out.

Needless to say, this was a bad idea.

[Nym90]

imagine how different the election would have turned out if bush spent the final two weeks of the 2000 campaign in florida, new mexico, oregon, iowa and wisconsin...instead of california, illinois and new jersey.

the dwi story was a minor detail.  bush lost the popular vote, and if not for some legalities, the electoral votes, simply because he was arrogant and complacent.

agree?  disagree?

I agree.

Likely, Bush would have won Florida, by an insurmountable margin, and would likely have taken New Mexico and Iowa comfortably, giving him an uncontested win.  He would have won the popular vote as well, had not some sensationalist interloper and Democrat dirty trickster, engaged in a  campaign of subversion, and broke the DWI story the Thursday before the Tuesday vote.

Bush was as well hurt on election night itself when the biased networks, with the exception of Fox, were jumping over each other to declare Gore the winner in Florida, even before all Florida precincts were closed.  The panhandle was still voting, and heavily for Bush.  No doubt this early and innacurate news put a damper on Republican voters in this part of the state, and cost Bush thousands of votes.       

Yeah, right. Anyone still at home to see that wouldn't have made it to the precincts in time anyways.

there were long lines at many of the polling places.  once florida had been called, many voters in the panhandle left the line and went home.

I'm not sure what the source of information is for this, but even if it did happen, there is still a big difference between people choosing not to vote vs. people voting and having their votes not counted the way they intended them to be.

[Nym90]

For clarification purposes only, and I know this has been rehashed inumerable times since 2000 -

In fairness to Bush, regarding Florida, the post-election recounts conducted by the state, showed Bush the winner, with the most VALID ballots.  Controversial?  Yes, without a doubt, but, nonetheless, official and legal. 

Academic recounts conducted by a consortiuim of news organizations later, as well showed Bush as the winner in Florida, with the most VALID ballots.  In any democracy, only valid ballots can be considered as being binding.

I agree, that yes, Bush should have spent the last two weeks of the campaign in Florida, New Mexico, Oregon, Iowa, Wisconsin.   

Actually most of the academic recounts showed a Gore win, though it all depends on what standard is used.