bush beat himself in 2000.

[Keystone Phil]

the dole campaign did make pushes for states like connecticut, new hampshire, new jersey and pennsylvania.

Conneticut and New Jersey? That was even more foolish idea than trying for California.

[WalterMitty]

the dole campaign did make pushes for states like connecticut, new hampshire, new jersey and pennsylvania.

Conneticut and New Jersey? That was even more foolish idea than trying for California.

in hindsight, that may be true.

however, at the time, it didnt seem that radical.  ct and nj were relatively close in 1992.

[Keystone Phil]

however, at the time, it didnt seem that radical.  ct and nj were relatively close in 1992.

They were close but did the Dole people think that they could actually make it close in left leaning states against a popular incumbent Democratic President?

[HardRCafé]

Connecticut is small and usually within single digits.  No reason not to hit it if in the Northeast.

[WalterMitty]

however, at the time, it didnt seem that radical.  ct and nj were relatively close in 1992.

They were close but did the Dole people think that they could actually make it close in left leaning states against a popular incumbent Democratic President?

im sure deep down the dole people knew it was going to be an uphill struggle to win the election.  therefore, theyd have to pull off some upsets (like ct and nj).  i guess those two states seemed easier to win than ca.

i do remember dole and kemp touring california after kemp's selection.  but, if memory serves, the convention was in san diego, so they didnt go out of their way.

the dole victory map always included states like pa, nh, nj, oh, mo and ct.

from what ive heard and read, christine todd whitman was strongly consider for vp to help bring in nj and some of the northeast.

[WalterMitty]

this is something like the dole people had in mind:

[minionofmidas]

The state went Rep by 3.5 points or so.
4 years later, both camps threw money at the state like there was no tomorrow. The state went Rep by 1.5 points or so.

Bush 50.82% - Kerry 48.71% = 2.11%

Yeah, I didn't check the figures before posting. At least I got 2000 right. Still, that's even better for the point I was making.

[minionofmidas]

CT isn't really what I'd call left-leaning. Democrat-leaning, yes.

Delaware should be Rep on your 96 map, Walt. Even the 2000 Bush people were apparently *shocked* at how big Gore won it.

One more note on California - I think Bush's campaigning there actually drove Gore's margin up, not just by keeping Dems from staying at home (which may have cost the GOP House seats as well, btw), but by scaring Nader supporters into going back to Gore.

[WalterMitty]

CT isn't really what I'd call left-leaning. Democrat-leaning, yes.

Delaware should be Rep on your 96 map, Walt. Even the 2000 Bush people were apparently *shocked* at how big Gore won it.

One more note on California - I think Bush's campaigning there actually drove Gore's margin up, not just by keeping Dems from staying at home (which may have cost the GOP House seats as well, btw), but by scaring Nader supporters into going back to Gore.

there is one thing a lot of people dont realize about DE, there are a lot of blacks there.  that factor alone likely tips the scales to the dems.

[minionofmidas]

CT isn't really what I'd call left-leaning. Democrat-leaning, yes.

Delaware should be Rep on your 96 map, Walt. Even the 2000 Bush people were apparently *shocked* at how big Gore won it.

One more note on California - I think Bush's campaigning there actually drove Gore's margin up, not just by keeping Dems from staying at home (which may have cost the GOP House seats as well, btw), but by scaring Nader supporters into going back to Gore.

there is one thing a lot of people dont realize about DE, there are a lot of blacks there.  that factor alone likely tips the scales to the dems.

I know that - but it was Rep in 88, it wasn't all that lopsided in 92, and Reps did hope to retake it someday. The fact that until 2000 (or 2004 depending who you talk to ) it was the longest-running bellwether also had to something with it.
(Of course the numbers of Black Republicans hemorrhaged in the early 90s, and haven't ever recovered, from about 18% to about 10%... which may help explain why the state became more Democratic.)

[WalterMitty]

CT isn't really what I'd call left-leaning. Democrat-leaning, yes.

Delaware should be Rep on your 96 map, Walt. Even the 2000 Bush people were apparently *shocked* at how big Gore won it.

One more note on California - I think Bush's campaigning there actually drove Gore's margin up, not just by keeping Dems from staying at home (which may have cost the GOP House seats as well, btw), but by scaring Nader supporters into going back to Gore.

there is one thing a lot of people dont realize about DE, there are a lot of blacks there.  that factor alone likely tips the scales to the dems.

I know that - but it was Rep in 88, it wasn't all that lopsided in 92, and Reps did hope to retake it someday. The fact that until 2000 (or 2004 depending who you talk to ) it was the longest-running bellwether also had to something with it.
(Of course the numbers of Black Republicans hemorrhaged in the early 90s, and haven't ever recovered, from about 18% to about 10%... which may help explain why the state became more Democratic.)

hasnt it also become just a big suburb of philly?

[minionofmidas]

CT isn't really what I'd call left-leaning. Democrat-leaning, yes.

Delaware should be Rep on your 96 map, Walt. Even the 2000 Bush people were apparently *shocked* at how big Gore won it.

One more note on California - I think Bush's campaigning there actually drove Gore's margin up, not just by keeping Dems from staying at home (which may have cost the GOP House seats as well, btw), but by scaring Nader supporters into going back to Gore.

there is one thing a lot of people dont realize about DE, there are a lot of blacks there.  that factor alone likely tips the scales to the dems.

I know that - but it was Rep in 88, it wasn't all that lopsided in 92, and Reps did hope to retake it someday. The fact that until 2000 (or 2004 depending who you talk to ) it was the longest-running bellwether also had to something with it.
(Of course the numbers of Black Republicans hemorrhaged in the early 90s, and haven't ever recovered, from about 18% to about 10%... which may help explain why the state became more Democratic.)

hasnt it also become just a big suburb of philly?

That was already true in 88.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bush knew he had the media on his side, and he got arrogant. He was spending millions of dollars on California. Gore's polls were showing that he should win it, but eventually Gore decided to do one campaign stop in California (I don't think he spent any money here, though).

The Gore campaign only outspent the Bush campaign in one state: Florida. Bush knew he could count on his younger brother to deliver it.

It's always funny when they call California for the Democrat immediately when polls close, because the first precincts to report are always some wingnut ones in Orange county or somewhere.

[WalterMitty]

CT isn't really what I'd call left-leaning. Democrat-leaning, yes.

Delaware should be Rep on your 96 map, Walt. Even the 2000 Bush people were apparently *shocked* at how big Gore won it.

One more note on California - I think Bush's campaigning there actually drove Gore's margin up, not just by keeping Dems from staying at home (which may have cost the GOP House seats as well, btw), but by scaring Nader supporters into going back to Gore.

there is one thing a lot of people dont realize about DE, there are a lot of blacks there.  that factor alone likely tips the scales to the dems.

I know that - but it was Rep in 88, it wasn't all that lopsided in 92, and Reps did hope to retake it someday. The fact that until 2000 (or 2004 depending who you talk to ) it was the longest-running bellwether also had to something with it.
(Of course the numbers of Black Republicans hemorrhaged in the early 90s, and haven't ever recovered, from about 18% to about 10%... which may help explain why the state became more Democratic.)

hasnt it also become just a big suburb of philly?

That was already true in 88.

yes and hw bush did well in suburbia.

[minionofmidas]

CT isn't really what I'd call left-leaning. Democrat-leaning, yes.

Delaware should be Rep on your 96 map, Walt. Even the 2000 Bush people were apparently *shocked* at how big Gore won it.

One more note on California - I think Bush's campaigning there actually drove Gore's margin up, not just by keeping Dems from staying at home (which may have cost the GOP House seats as well, btw), but by scaring Nader supporters into going back to Gore.

there is one thing a lot of people dont realize about DE, there are a lot of blacks there.  that factor alone likely tips the scales to the dems.

I know that - but it was Rep in 88, it wasn't all that lopsided in 92, and Reps did hope to retake it someday. The fact that until 2000 (or 2004 depending who you talk to ) it was the longest-running bellwether also had to something with it.
(Of course the numbers of Black Republicans hemorrhaged in the early 90s, and haven't ever recovered, from about 18% to about 10%... which may help explain why the state became more Democratic.)

hasnt it also become just a big suburb of philly?

That was already true in 88.

yes and hw bush did well in suburbia.

Exactly ... as did Gore in 2000. Dole clearly didn't do as good in suburbia as the Gore people thought he would, though.

[MasterJedi]

I love how people say Bush beat himself in 2000 when he actually did win the election. Well not in the mind of wingnuts like JFraud but you all know he really did with the recounts.

[ATFFL]

Bush knew the media was on his side so he could rest secure in the knowledge they would never report about his DUI record.

Oh, wait a minute . . .