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IndyRep
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« on: October 07, 2020, 10:59:00 PM » |
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« edited: October 07, 2020, 11:22:24 PM by White WOW Wississippian »
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Their previous numbers were eerily close to my prediction at that time and in line with other indicators I’ve seen, so I’m certainly not going to dismiss them out of hand, although it’s a pity that no PRES/GOV results were included in this release. The parties have dumped more than $75 million into this race and are continuing to inundate voters with ads 24/7 (it’s bordering on terror at this point), and it’s certainly not because Daines is ahead by 9 and/or doing 10+ points better than Ernst. I think we can fend off Bullock at around that 48% mark, but it’ll be close and Daines can thank God there’s no Libertarian on the ballot.
Tester received a majority of the vote with higher turnout than in 2016 and Bullock’s the more popular officeholder of the two, so there’s nothing surprising about the closeness of the race. Daines has some advantages Rosendale didn’t have (which is why I think he’ll eventually pull it off), but it’s a narrow range of outcomes (Daines himself said that it’s a 2-point race the other day) and people on this forum have seriously exaggerated to what extent the 2018 result can be attributed to Rosendale's weaknesses as a candidate as opposed to the MDP's strength.
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