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October 21, 2020, 02:33:56 AM
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  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  MT/NC/TX - Data for Progress (D): Bullock +1%, Cunningham +11%; Cornyn +3%
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Author Topic: MT/NC/TX - Data for Progress (D): Bullock +1%, Cunningham +11%; Cornyn +3%  (Read 543 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
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« on: October 07, 2020, 05:39:16 PM »
« edited: October 07, 2020, 06:01:51 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

September 30 - October 5

MT
https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-3/MT.pdf

737 likely voters
MoE: 3.6%

Bullock 48%
Daines 47%
Fredrickson (G) 0% (but some voters) [INCORRECTLY INCLUDED]
Not sure/don't know 4%

NC
https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-3/NC.pdf

1285 likely voters
MoE: 2.7%
Changes with July 24-August 2 poll (not for a partisan sponsor)

Cunningham 50% (+5)
Tillis 39% (+2)
Bray (L) 2% (not previously included)
Hayes (C) 1% (not previously included)
Not sure/don't know 8% (-10)

TX
https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-3/TX.pdf

1949 likely voters
MoE: 2.2%
Changes with September 15-22 poll (not for a partisan sponsor)

Cornyn 45% (+5)
Hegar 42% (+4)
McKennon (L) 2%  (not previously included)
Turullols-Bonilla (Independent write-in) 1%  (not previously included)
Not sure/don't know 11% (-11)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2020, 05:40:23 PM »

Historically sexy!
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2020, 05:40:37 PM »

Don't like that Montana poll, don't believe the NC poll. Don't like this.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2020, 05:41:04 PM »


If Cal somehow wins I will post that phrase repeatedly in all caps on election night.
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Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2020, 05:41:08 PM »
« Edited: October 07, 2020, 05:45:26 PM by Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia »

Cornyn matching Trump should be sounding off all the fire alarms in Texas GOP headquarters.

Also, they only polled Texas in English??!?
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new_patomic
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« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2020, 05:41:33 PM »

This is the second poll showing Cornyn under 50 and within single digits of Hegar.

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Dread it, Run from it, President Biden arrives all the same
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« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2020, 05:42:16 PM »

Don't like that Montana poll, don't believe the NC poll. Don't like this.

Why? These are pretty good.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2020, 05:43:00 PM »

CuNnInGhAm Is dOoMeD!!!
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2020, 05:46:10 PM »

Don't like that Montana poll, don't believe the NC poll. Don't like this.

Why? These are pretty good.

If a D poll...yes it's not commissioned by a campaign but still...it's Data for Progress and Bullock is only up by one I'm fairly pessimistic on that. I'm not gonna doom, but it's concerning. As for North Carolina I believe it's almost entirely pre-Sextgate, so I'll wait for new numbers before I make conclusions.

Maybe I'm just scarred by FL-SEN 2018. That was.....unspeakably horrifying
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Dread it, Run from it, President Biden arrives all the same
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« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2020, 05:48:26 PM »

Don't like that Montana poll, don't believe the NC poll. Don't like this.

Why? These are pretty good.

If a D poll...yes it's not commissioned by a campaign but still...it's Data for Progress and Bullock is only up by one I'm fairly pessimistic on that. I'm not gonna doom, but it's concerning. As for North Carolina I believe it's almost entirely pre-Sextgate, so I'll wait for new numbers before I make conclusions.

Maybe I'm just scarred by FL-SEN 2018. That was.....unspeakably horrifying

DFP isnít that biased, it has a 538 rating of B- and a average D bias of D+0.0%. So not too worrying Iíd say. But theres definitely reason to be cautious or skeptical.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2020, 05:49:47 PM »

Don't like that Montana poll, don't believe the NC poll. Don't like this.

Why? These are pretty good.

If a D poll...yes it's not commissioned by a campaign but still...it's Data for Progress and Bullock is only up by one I'm fairly pessimistic on that. I'm not gonna doom, but it's concerning. As for North Carolina I believe it's almost entirely pre-Sextgate, so I'll wait for new numbers before I make conclusions.

Maybe I'm just scarred by FL-SEN 2018. That was.....unspeakably horrifying

DFP isnít that biased, it has a 538 rating of B- and a average D bias of D+0.0%. So not too worrying Iíd say. But theres definitely reason to be cautious or skeptical.
Exactly. I'd like to see Bullock doing a bit better if Historically Sexy goes down.
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swf541
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« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2020, 05:54:52 PM »


i really dont think anyone is going to give a flying f*** about the sexting bit, esp with everything else going on.

At worst may cause 1-2% margin change which given the polling data we got and the national environment def does put the seat into jeopardy somewhat but nowhere past tilt d.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2020, 05:55:07 PM »

FINALLY A MT SENATE POLL I AM SO HAPPY YAY!

On another note, some historically sexy numbers for Cunningham, though some of the poll was conducted before the texts were released
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Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds
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« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2020, 06:09:50 PM »

A bit too D-friendly across the board, but itís hilarious some people seem to think itís impossible for Bullock to pull off an upset/pull ahead. Still more likely to flip than Iowa.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2020, 06:10:29 PM »

FINALLY A MT SENATE POLL I AM SO HAPPY YAY!

On another note, some historically sexy numbers for Cunningham, though some of the poll was conducted before the texts were released
[/b]

One thing worth noting is that people have already started voting in NC. That said, this race is probably Tilt/Lean R now.
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2020, 06:13:40 PM »

The NC poll is obviously way too D friendly (it has Biden +8), but the idea that sextgate is going to swing this election 5-10 points to Tillis is hilariously bad analysis. I didn't ever buy this race being a "NC-SEN 2008 redux", but that doesn't mean Tillis is going to win.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2020, 07:04:08 PM »

But people told me Cunningham should drop out and he was doomed...
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2020, 07:05:17 PM »

The NC poll is obviously way too D friendly (it has Biden +8), but the idea that sextgate is going to swing this election 5-10 points to Tillis is hilariously bad analysis. I didn't ever buy this race being a "NC-SEN 2008 redux", but that doesn't mean Tillis is going to win.

Bullock is leading and you told us he was gonna loose
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Abolish class
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« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2020, 07:26:09 PM »

top kek
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #19 on: October 07, 2020, 07:36:00 PM »

Glad to see Bullock is still putting it at tossup in MT. I was gettting a little neurotic there with the lack of polling
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Arlington County Moderate 4 Trump (Against Bernie)
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« Reply #20 on: October 07, 2020, 10:59:00 PM »
« Edited: October 07, 2020, 11:22:24 PM by White WOW Wississippian »

Their previous numbers were eerily close to my prediction at that time and in line with other indicators Iíve seen, so Iím certainly not going to dismiss them out of hand, although itís a pity that no PRES/GOV results were included in this release. The parties have dumped more than $75 million into this race and are continuing to inundate voters with ads 24/7 (itís bordering on terror at this point), and itís certainly not because Daines is ahead by 9 and/or doing 10+ points better than Ernst. I think we can fend off Bullock at around that 48% mark, but itíll be close and Daines can thank God thereís no Libertarian on the ballot.

Tester received a majority of the vote with higher turnout than in 2016 and Bullockís the more popular officeholder of the two, so thereís nothing surprising about the closeness of the race. Daines has some advantages Rosendale didnít have (which is why I think heíll eventually pull it off), but itís a narrow range of outcomes (Daines himself said that itís a 2-point race the other day) and people on this forum have seriously exaggerated to what extent the 2018 result can be attributed to Rosendale's weaknesses as a candidate as opposed to the MDP's strength.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #21 on: October 12, 2020, 09:15:16 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Data 4 Progress on 2020-10-05

Summary: D: 50%, R: 39%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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