Greenfield running even with Biden makes me more convinced the polls are way too rosy for Iowa Dems yet again.
I do think polls are overestimating Democrats again, but the question is by how much. While Ernst would likely be winning easily in a neutral environment, the current environment might be just Democratic-friendly enough for Greenfield to eke this out. If the polling average is Greenfield +0.5 on Election Day, I'll definitely be predicting an Ernst win, but if it's in the 3-5% range, I'd expect the race to be very close.
