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October 21, 2020, 03:03:09 AM
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  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  IA-Quinnipiac: Greenfield +5
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Author Topic: IA-Quinnipiac: Greenfield +5  (Read 579 times)
Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
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« on: October 07, 2020, 01:08:12 PM »

Greenfield (D): 50%

Ernst (R-inc.): 45%

Literally the only realistic number coming from this poll. The presidential topline is a joke.

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3678
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2020, 01:10:02 PM »

I'm feeling more confident in this race now
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2020, 01:10:23 PM »

Greenfield running even with Biden makes me more convinced the polls are way too rosy for Iowa Dems yet again.
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Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2020, 01:14:03 PM »

Greenfield not outrunning Biden by double digits? They probably didn’t poll pro-science Trump “followers” who’re angry at Ernst for pushing a debunked conspiracy theory.
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2020, 01:16:41 PM »

Greenfield running even with Biden makes me more convinced the polls are way too rosy for Iowa Dems yet again.

I do think polls are overestimating Democrats again, but the question is by how much. While Ernst would likely be winning easily in a neutral environment, the current environment might be just Democratic-friendly enough for Greenfield to eke this out.  If the polling average is Greenfield +0.5 on Election Day, I'll definitely be predicting an Ernst win, but if it's in the 3-5% range, I'd expect the race to be very close.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2020, 01:22:33 PM »

Greenfield (D): 50%

Ernst (R-inc.): 45%

Literally the only realistic number coming from this poll. The presidential topline is a joke.

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3678

How is it a joke? NYT/Siena had Biden +3 recently. If Biden is snapping back with midwestern whites and seniors, these #s are totally plausible.

This has been the umpteenth poll of Greenfield ahead, so it gets to a point where even if the polls are a bit too Pro-D still (jury is still out), Greenfield appears to be slightly favored at this point
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2020, 01:32:58 PM »

Ernst hasn't lead a poll here in about a month. Greenfield has in 7. There has been one tie.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2020, 01:34:22 PM »

Can't decide whether this is a good or bad poll for Greenfield. The fact she leads by 5% is good, but the fact that she isn't outperforming Biden isn't so great
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2020, 01:40:10 PM »

Looks like its the Young and the Old vs the Middle Aged in Iowa.

18-34: Biden +20
35-49: Trump +12
50-64: Trump +4
65+: Biden +25
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2020, 02:05:06 PM »

So much for Indy Rep Safe Ernst😆😆😆
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Make PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2020, 04:23:06 PM »

Greenfield (D): 50%

Ernst (R-inc.): 45%

Literally the only realistic number coming from this poll. The presidential topline is a joke.

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3678

How is it a joke? NYT/Siena had Biden +3 recently. If Biden is snapping back with midwestern whites and seniors, these #s are totally plausible.

This has been the umpteenth poll of Greenfield ahead, so it gets to a point where even if the polls are a bit too Pro-D still (jury is still out), Greenfield appears to be slightly favored at this point

I was referring to the margins. I think we can agree Biden isn’t going to win Florida by 11 points.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2020, 04:58:12 PM »

October 1-5
1205 likely voters
MoE: 2.8%

Greenfield 50%
Ernst 45%
Someone else 1%
Don't know/no answer 4%
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Andy Hine
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« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2020, 05:25:09 PM »

Can't decide whether this is a good or bad poll for Greenfield. The fact she leads by 5% is good, but the fact that she isn't outperforming Biden isn't so great

She's leading. Stop overthinking
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2020, 06:43:34 PM »

Looks like its the Young and the Old vs the Middle Aged in Iowa.

18-34: Biden +20
35-49: Trump +12
50-64: Trump +4
65+: Biden +25

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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2020, 07:06:52 PM »

Looks like its the Young and the Old vs the Middle Aged in Iowa.

18-34: Biden +20
35-49: Trump +12
50-64: Trump +4
65+: Biden +25

Okay (unironically) Boomers!
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2020, 07:16:32 PM »

Looks like its the Young and the Old vs the Middle Aged in Iowa.

18-34: Biden +20
35-49: Trump +12
50-64: Trump +4
65+: Biden +25

Okay (unironically) Boomers!

It's possible that the 76+ Silent and Greatest Generation members are responsible for most of that margin.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2020, 09:56:58 PM »

Looks like its the Young and the Old vs the Middle Aged in Iowa.

18-34: Biden +20
35-49: Trump +12
50-64: Trump +4
65+: Biden +25

Okay (unironically) Boomers!

It's possible that the 76+ Silent and Greatest Generation members are responsible for most of that margin.

Doubtful simply because there are a lot fewer of them.

It makes sense that older boomers would be more Democratic than younger ones though. They were the ones who came of age during the Civil Rights movement, Vietnam/peace movement, Watergate, etc. Younger boomers came of age during the Reagan era, as did Gen X. In some ways the older boomers have more in common with the silent/greatest generations than they do the younger boomers, who have more in common with Gen X. The Boomer generation is so long that it covers perhaps too wide a range of years to be of much use in predicting people’s views.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #17 on: October 12, 2020, 09:03:19 PM »

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2020-10-05

Summary: D: 50%, R: 45%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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