Quinnipiac: Biden +11 in FL, +13 in PA, +5 in IA
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  Quinnipiac: Biden +11 in FL, +13 in PA, +5 in IA
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac: Biden +11 in FL, +13 in PA, +5 in IA  (Read 5890 times)
wbrocks67
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« Reply #25 on: October 07, 2020, 01:16:21 PM »

Yeah I mean, it is in line with the national polls showing Biden up by 12-16. 🤷‍♂️

This. FL is obviously an outlier but IA/PA really aren't. NYT/Siena just had IA as Biden +3 recently and Monmouth just had PA as Biden +12 yesterday.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #26 on: October 07, 2020, 01:19:09 PM »

Doubt they end up quite this Democratic at the end (take five points off of Biden's margin in each and they largely match my expectations), but results like these really aren't that surprising when you have multiple national polls with Biden up +12 to +16 nationally
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Buzz
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« Reply #27 on: October 07, 2020, 01:19:18 PM »

Quinnipiac = Rasmussen
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #28 on: October 07, 2020, 01:19:53 PM »

The latest message from Q: this board parade is cancelled. ABANDON SHIP
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #29 on: October 07, 2020, 01:20:20 PM »

Biden at 51 in Florida is plausible, and so is 54 in Pennsylvania. It's Trump's numbers that seem low.

Unenthusiastic Trump voters are pretty damn demoralized right now, so something like 51-47 in Florida and 54-45 in Pennsylvania come November 3 seems plausible to me.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #30 on: October 07, 2020, 01:20:32 PM »

At least Q-pac finally has somewhat of a realistic Hispanic result here for once (Biden +14)
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #31 on: October 07, 2020, 01:21:41 PM »

The CNN and NBC/WSJ polls have Biden beating Trump with seniors by 20-30 points. These are reasonable numbers in such a scenario.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #32 on: October 07, 2020, 01:21:55 PM »

Biden at 51 in Florida is plausible, and so is 54 in Pennsylvania. It's Trump's numbers that seem low.

Unenthusiastic Trump voters are pretty damn demoralized right now, so something like 51-47 in Florida and 54-45 in Pennsylvania come November 3 seems plausible to me.

I agree. I'm skeptical of these polls too, but Trump's percent of the vote has been tanking in most polls lately which is what's inflating Biden's margin, so I don't see why Quinnipiac is the worst thing since Zogby for picking up on it too.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #33 on: October 07, 2020, 01:21:57 PM »

It was evident by this point in 2016 that Iowa and Ohio were locked in for Trump. In the last three weeks we now have the reverse - multiple polls showing both states as Tilt/Lean D. TBH I didn't think Biden had a chance in either as late as May. Maybe an early Ohio call for Biden on election evening puts everyone's nerves at ease.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #34 on: October 07, 2020, 01:22:56 PM »

Remember what happened when people doubted Quinnipiac about the Virginia Governor's race.

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #35 on: October 07, 2020, 01:22:58 PM »

It was evident by this point in 2016 that Iowa and Ohio were locked in for Trump. In the last three weeks we now have the reverse - multiple polls showing both states as Tilt/Lean D. TBH I didn't think Biden had a chance in either as late as May. Maybe an early Ohio call for Biden on election evening puts everyone's nerves at ease.

I so want that to happen with Karl Rove on the air at Fox.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #36 on: October 07, 2020, 01:23:04 PM »

I’m not sure what everyone finds so objectionable about the Florida number independent of the other two.  It seems quite reasonable to me that FL would vote 2 points right of PA and 6 points left of IA.

This all seems consistent with something like a Biden +14 national environment, which is what several other high quality national polls are showing.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #37 on: October 07, 2020, 01:24:09 PM »

I’m not sure what everyone finds so objectionable about the Florida number independent of the other two.  It seems quite reasonable to me that FL would vote 2 points right of PA and 6 points left of IA.

If Trump truly is collapsing with whites and seniors, then it is slightly plausible. However, after FL being razor tight for two decades, it would be hard to imagine.
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Lumine
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« Reply #38 on: October 07, 2020, 01:24:44 PM »

Would certainly be a wonderful sight, but more likely:


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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #39 on: October 07, 2020, 01:25:42 PM »
« Edited: October 07, 2020, 01:33:14 PM by Alben Barkley »

I mean....all of these would square with the CNN and NBC polling.
PA a couple of points to the right, Florida 3-4 points to the right and Iowa 10 points to the right...
Blue Avatars are desperate and Red Avatars are scared to believe

Yep, this is absolutely true. This is perfectly in line with the recent national polling implying a double digit Biden lead. And his huge leads with seniors. PA poll is also in line with Monmouth.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #40 on: October 07, 2020, 01:26:37 PM »

The Florida poll has a lot of undecideds who I feel will mostly come home to Trump.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #41 on: October 07, 2020, 01:27:32 PM »

My heart thinks it’s accurate and everything is lining up increasingly like 2006 or 2008 recently, but my head says No.

I don’t see how that’s possibly the case. If “your head” is objectively analyzing the data, it is very clear that this year is shaping up to be a huge win for Biden and Democrats. Sounds to me more like “your gut” is still afraid of a Trump win, even if your heart doesn’t want it and your head knows it’s improbable.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #42 on: October 07, 2020, 01:27:59 PM »

I like how the Nates tried to push the other results as of course right but then they see results that dont push their narrative and they are suddenly wrong.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #43 on: October 07, 2020, 01:29:13 PM »

Like what everyone else is pretty much saying, these polls are probably outliers, especially the Florida numbers... but the thing is, if Biden truly is up 10-12 points, like we've been seeing in a ton of national polls since the debate, then these numbers aren't totally unreasonable.

I mean, this is the third high-quality poll of Pennsylvania we've gotten this week with a double digit lead for Biden, so it's not exactly an outlier.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #44 on: October 07, 2020, 01:30:13 PM »

The Florida poll has a lot of undecideds who I feel will mostly come home to Trump.

Yeah well even if literally all of the undecideds voted for Trump, Biden at 51 means he still wins.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #45 on: October 07, 2020, 01:31:15 PM »

L.O.L.

Even though these polls seem quite bullish on Biden, just the fact these numbers are possible is bad news for Trump
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #46 on: October 07, 2020, 01:32:18 PM »

But in all seriousness, he's not up by 11% in FL.  It's possible he's at 51% there, but no way will he win by 11%.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #47 on: October 07, 2020, 01:32:54 PM »

Let’s accept this is where polls were this past weekend with Trump in the hospital and then see what happens in the next few weeks.
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Woody
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« Reply #48 on: October 07, 2020, 01:37:30 PM »

They had Gillum and Nelson up 7+ points in the final stages of the midterms.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #49 on: October 07, 2020, 01:37:38 PM »

Obviously this is not accurate.

But shave 5 points, hell make it 6 off of his margin...Trump is still finished
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