MO - Garin-Hart-Yang/Nicole Galloway for Missouri (D): Parson +2%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5f7da30aae0dc50f899426db/1602069258463/Garin+Hart+Yang+Recent+MO+statewide+survey+Memo_FINAL.pdf

September 28-October 2
600 likely voters
MoE: 4.1%
Changes with June 16-22 poll

Parson 50% (+3)
Galloway 48% (+8)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D, along with MT and NH and NC

[Hope For A New Era]

Still a Tossup, the same as it has been since the candidates announced their runs.

Democrats *can* outperform polls in Missouri. Just because they haven't recently doesn't mean they can't now.

Right now, the state is rebounding from the Democratic rock bottom it hit in 2016. The rurals are bouncing back to pre-Hillary Clinton levels (it remains to be seen whether this is a return to normal or a dead cat bounce - hopefully a return to normal), and the suburbs are swinging dramatically left. If a D overperformance is going to happen, now is the time for it.