FiveThirtyEight's House Model is up

[Stuart98]

Deluxe: Democrats 93%, 237 average seats
Classic: Democrats 93%, 238 average seats
Lite: Democrats 97%, 244 average seats

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/house/

[VAR]

D pickups: CA-25, CO-03, IN-05, NC-02, NC-06, NY-02, VA-05
R pickups: MN-07, SC-01

[scutosaurus]

This is absurd. Hopefully no campaigns take it seriously.

[Stuart98]

D pickups: CA-25, CO-03, IN-05, NC-02, NC-06, NY-02, VA-05
R pickups: MN-07, SC-01

Lol, they only have SC01 flipping because the only poll there is a May poll that had Mace +1.

You'd think the Classic model would negate that with Cunningham's vastly better fundraising but no, both versions of the model have the same odds and only the Deluxe one has Cunningham properly favored.

[wbrocks67]

This is absurd. Hopefully no campaigns take it seriously.

They really have a weird thing between incumbents being way too favored but yet Cunningham losing SC-01 when Harrison is likely to win it big? GA-07 being lost by Ds? What is this?

[TML]

There's clearly a pro-incumbent bias in this model in many races.

[wbrocks67]

Also, Van Drew still winning NJ-02 when we have 3 Kennedy +5 polls right now?

[Oryxslayer]

There's clearly a pro-incumbent bias in this model in many races.

Unlike 2018, we don't have many house polls, and those that we do have are often internals. Therefore, a data-based model built off of an expectation of polls will have problems.

Quite frankly, most models and projections right now about the house are a bit fishy, but there are thankfully so many after 2018 that you an average them out - just like polling,

[Xing]

CA-21 is a Toss-Up while IA-01 is Likely D?
TX-07 is only Lean D and TX-24 is Lean R?
MN-01 more likely to flip than PA-01?

(There are many more)

Junk it.

[wbrocks67]

CA-21 is a Toss-Up while IA-01 is Likely D?
TX-07 is only Lean D and TX-24 is Lean R?
MN-01 more likely to flip than PA-01?

(There are many more)

Junk it.

Meanwhile, I'm looking at the PA results and its like they just copied 2018s margins on some of these. This model is not good.

[Sestak]

JUNK MODEL !!!

[tagimaucia]

The incumbency factor in these 538 congressional models is clearly just trash.

It seems to be based on the historical power of incumbency in senate and house races over many many decades but I guess Nate just decided not to make any adjustments reflecting the clearly quantifiable fact that the incumbency benefit has been steadily declining over time and is pretty limited at this point (something that there are actually FiveThirtyEight articles about!).

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Trash. House GOP will get blown out of the water

[JerryArkansas]

They have GA 7, a seat everyone has going democratic as a tossup leaning republican.  It's junk Butch

[Coastal Elitist]

They have GA 7, a seat everyone has going democratic as a tossup leaning republican.  It's junk Butch

lol 538 is such a joke they got the only D flip wrong

[Mike Thick]

lol 538 is such a joke they got the only D flip wrong

lol it's like democrats just make up their internal polls, Jones couldn't even hit 40 he only got 39.7%

lol this thread aged well

lol this thread aged well

Get a new gimmick bud

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This model just proves that in 2022/ it's not a sure bet Rs takeover the House, unemployment elevated still helps D's, that's why no Stimulus hurts Rs more than D's if Leader McConnell doesn't pass it and will hurt Rs in GA on Jan 5th if there is nothing passed

[2016]

This model just proves that in 2022/ it's not a sure bet Rs takeover the House, unemployment elevated still helps D's, that's why no Stimulus hurts Rs more than D's if Leader McConnell doesn't pass it and will hurt Rs in GA on Jan 5th if there is nothing passed

Republicans only need 8 Seats to take the House in 2022 at worst case scenario so they have more than a 90 % Chance flipping it. There will be a Stimulus/Corona-Relief Bill passed in 2021 at the latest, just not the "Heroes Act" Pelosi wants. It will be trimmed down just like Obamas "Recovery & Reinvestment Act" in 2009.