PA - Emerson: Biden+5
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Author Topic: PA - Emerson: Biden+5  (Read 1239 times)
n1240
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« on: October 06, 2020, 07:01:00 PM »
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/pennsylvania-2020-biden-holds-edge-in-home-state-trump-closing-gap

Biden 50
Trump 45

10/4-5, 688 LV
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2020, 07:02:00 PM »
Only good poll for Trump in days, and it says something that this counts as a good poll.
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Sestak
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« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2020, 07:02:21 PM »
JUNK POLL !!!!
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Hammy
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2020, 07:04:03 PM »
Average this with Monmouth and you'll probably have Biden's final percentage.
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Buzz
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2020, 07:06:34 PM »
Emerson is a good pollster despite what people say on here.  Biden will probably win the state by 5-7.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2020, 07:09:14 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 06, 2020, 07:06:34 PM
Emerson is a good pollster despite what people say on here.  Biden will probably win the state by 5-7.

Not after they switched to using MTurk to get their data.
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Storr
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« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2020, 07:09:48 PM »
If Emerson says its Biden +5 then it's actu....anyway, seriously bad poll for Trump.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2020, 07:11:37 PM »
The fact that Biden+5 is considered a "good" poll for Trump really tells you where this race is headed...
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n1240
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« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2020, 07:15:52 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 06, 2020, 07:06:34 PM
Emerson is a good pollster despite what people say on here.  Biden will probably win the state by 5-7.

Emerson was reasonably good in 2016/2018, but they decided to make their methodology worse this cycle, many other people in the polling industry have criticized them for using MTurk to comprise up to 50% of their samples.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2020, 07:17:41 PM »
Biden is on track to win 70M to 65 M not 80 M to 65M, so the polls showing wide 16 pt leads are showing enthusiasm gaps with the Early vote

Which is the amount you need to overcome EC college loss and winning PVI that Hillary had.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2020, 07:18:30 PM »
MoE: 3.7%
Changes with August 8-10 poll
Trends calculated pre-rounding

With leaners:
Biden 51% (-2)
Trump 47% (n/c)
Someone else 2% (not included in previous poll)

There appears to be an error in that there are 19 leaners but only 18 undecided voters to begin with.
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Hammy
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« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2020, 07:37:56 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 06, 2020, 07:09:14 PM
Quote from: Buzz on October 06, 2020, 07:06:34 PM
Emerson is a good pollster despite what people say on here.  Biden will probably win the state by 5-7.

Not after they switched to using MTurk to get their data.

What does that actually do to the methodology? I've seen it come up but it's still unclear.
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It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2020, 07:47:10 PM »
This still is a bad poll for Trump.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2020, 07:54:04 PM »
Quote from: Hammy on October 06, 2020, 07:37:56 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 06, 2020, 07:09:14 PM
Quote from: Buzz on October 06, 2020, 07:06:34 PM
Emerson is a good pollster despite what people say on here.  Biden will probably win the state by 5-7.

Not after they switched to using MTurk to get their data.

What does that actually do to the methodology? I've seen it come up but it's still unclear.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2020, 08:04:00 PM »
Wow... This proves Redsylvania
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #15 on: October 06, 2020, 10:05:29 PM »
If its Biden +8 nationally then this is accurate.

This is not 2008 lol.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
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« Reply #16 on: October 06, 2020, 11:21:16 PM »
Quote from: TheLaRocca on October 06, 2020, 10:05:29 PM
If its Biden +8 nationally then this is accurate.

This is not 2008 lol.

Lol you say that about an Emerson poll?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2020, 03:41:52 AM »
New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Emerson College on 2020-10-05

Summary: D: 50%, R: 45%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2020, 05:01:17 AM »
Once again, for some reason all the crappier pollsters have this race lower than the high quality stuff.
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