IA, TX - Civiqs/Daily Kos: Greenfield +3%, Cornyn +1%
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  IA, TX - Civiqs/Daily Kos: Greenfield +3%, Cornyn +1%
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Author Topic: IA, TX - Civiqs/Daily Kos: Greenfield +3%, Cornyn +1%  (Read 1626 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 07, 2020, 07:37:13 AM »

October 3-6

IA
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_IA_banner_book_2020_10_u43b2l.pdf

756 likely voters
MoE: 3.9%

Greenfield 49%
Ernst 46%
Stewart (L) 2%
Herzog (I) 1%
Someone else 0%
Unsure 3%

TX
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_TX_banner_book_2020_10_cm5k3s.pdf

895 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%

Cornyn 47%
Hegar 46%
McKennon (L) 2%
Collins (G) 1%
Someone else 0%
Unsure 4%
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Stuart98
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2020, 07:52:55 AM »
« Edited: October 07, 2020, 09:46:29 AM by Stuart98 »

As expected, the Texas senate race has converged onto the presidential numbers, which is very, very bad news for Cornyn.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2020, 08:05:15 AM »

It's so unfortunate that Beto O'Rourke chose to run his embarrassing presidential campaign instead of gearing up for this senate race.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2020, 08:20:01 AM »

I swear to god, I think Cornyn is going to lose this
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Bismarck
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2020, 08:33:18 AM »

I think Cornyn will pull it out, with Trump wining Texas by 0.5-3 % and Cornyn running about 2 points ahead of him.
Ernst should be embarrassed to be running behind Trump. Just a few years ago she seemed like she would be a formidable incumbent.
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Left Wing
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« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2020, 09:44:51 AM »

As expected, the Texas senate race has converged onto the presidential numbers, which is very, very bad news for the Senate Majority Whip.
John Thune?
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Stuart98
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« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2020, 09:47:16 AM »

As expected, the Texas senate race has converged onto the presidential numbers, which is very, very bad news for the Senate Majority Whip.
John Thune?
Oh, wow, I missed that they swapped him out two years ago. Nice.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2020, 09:49:16 AM »

Hegar is getting lucky I think, she's peaking (like Warnock) at the right time, and now when she needs it most, she's flush with $$$
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Figueira
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« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2020, 10:25:54 AM »

I think Cornyn will pull it out, with Trump wining Texas by 0.5-3 % and Cornyn running about 2 points ahead of him.
Ernst should be embarrassed to be running behind Trump. Just a few years ago she seemed like she would be a formidable incumbent.

Did Ernst ever seem like a formidable incumbent? She was expected to be a terrible incumbent when she won in 2014. The only reason she was expected to do well is because of Iowa's R trend, but Biden seems to be doing well enough nationwide and in the Midwest to overcome that.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2020, 10:28:30 AM »

Meanwhile, yet another poll with Greenfield leading, this time with nearly 50%.
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S019
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« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2020, 10:29:49 AM »

But...but unbeatable Titan John Cornyn will outrun Biden by 9,000%, due to those suburban swing voters in Tarrant County, who just love a good ol' Texas Republican.


Seriously, though tossup, and Hegar running that far behind Biden was just never happening, pollsters finally pushed undecideds and look at the result.
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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2020, 10:51:04 AM »

Why did they only poll Travis county? They're obviously missing the hoards of Nice Reasonable Moderate FF Biden/Cornyn voters in Tarrant and Fort Bend!!

In all seriousness, TX-SEN really shouldn't be overlooked, and if we're going to grade IA polls on a curve (which I do), TX polls probably should be as well, given how much O'Rourke overperformed his polls. Even given that IA polls have been off recently, I'm pretty close to moving IA-SEN to Toss-Up, since Ernst needs a polling error like we've seen in recent years to win, and even assuming that there is a 3-4 point Democratic bias in IA polls, that would still only put her very slightly ahead.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2020, 05:33:22 PM »
« Edited: October 07, 2020, 07:55:47 PM by Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia »

"Beautiful Flawless Cornyn will significantly overperform Cruz/Trump" and "Unknown Loser Hegar will significantly underperform Beto/Biden" are starting to look like some of the worst takes of the 2020 Election.

Also, yet another sign that this isn't even the Texas of 2016 and that 2018 was closer to a Dem floor than a ceiling
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2020, 11:38:01 PM »

Also, yet another sign that this isn't even the Texas of 2016 and that 2018 was closer to a Dem floor than a ceiling

I wouldn’t go THAT far but yeah, Texas is better than I thought
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AtorBoltox
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« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2020, 12:22:10 AM »

This is starting to look a lot like 2008
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GALeftist
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« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2020, 12:47:05 AM »

Beautiful stuff
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #16 on: October 08, 2020, 08:54:10 AM »

Looks like Hegar is finally getting that name-recognition in order. Good. We may be headed for an upset here.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: October 08, 2020, 10:33:09 AM »

Cornyn is gonna win regardless what happens at Prez race
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #18 on: October 08, 2020, 10:47:24 AM »

Greenfield continues to hold a narrow advantage over Ernst, and Cornyn's lead has tightened as Hegar has consolidated more of the Democratic vote behind her. As of right now, Iowa is a Tossup/Lean D and Texas is a Tossup/Lean R, but these races are far from over, and a Democratic upset in Texas isn't out out of the realm of plausibility at this point.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #19 on: October 08, 2020, 02:29:25 PM »

It's so unfortunate that Beto O'Rourke chose to run his embarrassing presidential campaign instead of gearing up for this senate race.

If he still said “Hell yes, we’re gonna take your guns,” he’d be doing far worse in Texas than Hegar.

Might not have if the goal was running for Senate instead of President all along though.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #20 on: October 08, 2020, 05:48:00 PM »

It's so unfortunate that Beto O'Rourke chose to run his embarrassing presidential campaign instead of gearing up for this senate race.

If he still said “Hell yes, we’re gonna take your guns,” he’d be doing far worse in Texas than Hegar.

Might not have if the goal was running for Senate instead of President all along though.

I'm almost certain he wouldn't have said such a thing if he had run for Senate again.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #21 on: October 08, 2020, 08:38:09 PM »

New Poll: Texas Senator by Civiqs on 2020-10-08

Summary: D: 46%, R: 47%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #22 on: October 08, 2020, 08:40:02 PM »

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Civiqs on 2020-10-06

Summary: D: 49%, R: 46%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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