CO-SurveyUSA: Hickenlooper +9

[ON Progressive]

https://www.9news.com/article/news/local/local-politics/election-2020-9news-colorado-politics-poll-biden-hickenlooper-gardner-trump-prop-115-ballot/73-9b4f6099-72df-4836-8d62-d81eceb981ec

Hickenlooper 48
Gardner 39
Undecided 8
Other 6

[Calthrina950]

An incumbent Senator polling at 39% is a disaster for that Senator. This race remains Likely D, closer to Safe than Lean, as it has been for over two years now.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 1-6
1021 likely voters
MoE: 3.9%

Safe D because of the court battle

[ProgressiveModerate]

Glad to see he really isn't underperforming Biden despite the ethics scandal. This gives me hope about NC.

[Calthrina950]

Glad to see he really isn't underperforming Biden despite the ethics scandal. This gives me hope about NC.

A major part of it is that Colorado is an intensely inflexible and polarized state. Every Democratic statewide candidate got between 52-53% of the vote in 2018, and Michael Bennet outperformed Hillary Clinton by less than 2% in 2016. In this poll, Hickenlooper is running only 2% behind Biden, and Gardner is running 1% behind Trump. So it's clear that Gardner is earning virtually no crossover support from Biden voters. The victory maps of Biden and Hickenlooper, by county, will look very similar-Gardner will probably outperform Trump in the Denver suburbs and El Paso County, but not by much.