|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 25, 2020, 12:11:53 PM
News:

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  IA, TX - Civiqs/Daily Kos: Greenfield +3%, Cornyn +1%
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: IA, TX - Civiqs/Daily Kos: Greenfield +3%, Cornyn +1%  (Read 831 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,818


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 07, 2020, 07:37:13 AM »

October 3-6

IA
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_IA_banner_book_2020_10_u43b2l.pdf

756 likely voters
MoE: 3.9%

Greenfield 49%
Ernst 46%
Stewart (L) 2%
Herzog (I) 1%
Someone else 0%
Unsure 3%

TX
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_TX_banner_book_2020_10_cm5k3s.pdf

895 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%

Cornyn 47%
Hegar 46%
McKennon (L) 2%
Collins (G) 1%
Someone else 0%
Unsure 4%
Logged
Stuart98
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 576
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.39, S: -6.70

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2020, 07:52:55 AM »
« Edited: October 07, 2020, 09:46:29 AM by Stuart98 »

As expected, the Texas senate race has converged onto the presidential numbers, which is very, very bad news for Cornyn.
Logged
DaleCooper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,008


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2020, 08:05:15 AM »

It's so unfortunate that Beto O'Rourke chose to run his embarrassing presidential campaign instead of gearing up for this senate race.
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,241
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2020, 08:20:01 AM »

I swear to god, I think Cornyn is going to lose this
Logged
Bismarck
Chancellor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,995


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2020, 08:33:18 AM »

I think Cornyn will pull it out, with Trump wining Texas by 0.5-3 % and Cornyn running about 2 points ahead of him.
Ernst should be embarrassed to be running behind Trump. Just a few years ago she seemed like she would be a formidable incumbent.
Logged
FalterinArc
Atlas Politician
Jr. Member
*****
Posts: 1,304
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -2.78

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2020, 09:44:51 AM »

As expected, the Texas senate race has converged onto the presidential numbers, which is very, very bad news for the Senate Majority Whip.
John Thune?
Logged
Stuart98
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 576
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.39, S: -6.70

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2020, 09:47:16 AM »

As expected, the Texas senate race has converged onto the presidential numbers, which is very, very bad news for the Senate Majority Whip.
John Thune?
Oh, wow, I missed that they swapped him out two years ago. Nice.
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,585
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2020, 09:49:16 AM »

Hegar is getting lucky I think, she's peaking (like Warnock) at the right time, and now when she needs it most, she's flush with $$$
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,546


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2020, 10:25:54 AM »

I think Cornyn will pull it out, with Trump wining Texas by 0.5-3 % and Cornyn running about 2 points ahead of him.
Ernst should be embarrassed to be running behind Trump. Just a few years ago she seemed like she would be a formidable incumbent.

Did Ernst ever seem like a formidable incumbent? She was expected to be a terrible incumbent when she won in 2014. The only reason she was expected to do well is because of Iowa's R trend, but Biden seems to be doing well enough nationwide and in the Midwest to overcome that.
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,585
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2020, 10:28:30 AM »

Meanwhile, yet another poll with Greenfield leading, this time with nearly 50%.
Logged
Clinton/Newsom/Straight Ticket D 2018 voter for Mike Garcia
S019
Atlas Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,606
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2020, 10:29:49 AM »

But...but unbeatable Titan John Cornyn will outrun Biden by 9,000%, due to those suburban swing voters in Tarrant County, who just love a good ol' Texas Republican.


Seriously, though tossup, and Hegar running that far behind Biden was just never happening, pollsters finally pushed undecideds and look at the result.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,430
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2020, 10:51:04 AM »

Why did they only poll Travis county? They're obviously missing the hoards of Nice Reasonable Moderate FF Biden/Cornyn voters in Tarrant and Fort Bend!!

In all seriousness, TX-SEN really shouldn't be overlooked, and if we're going to grade IA polls on a curve (which I do), TX polls probably should be as well, given how much O'Rourke overperformed his polls. Even given that IA polls have been off recently, I'm pretty close to moving IA-SEN to Toss-Up, since Ernst needs a polling error like we've seen in recent years to win, and even assuming that there is a 3-4 point Democratic bias in IA polls, that would still only put her very slightly ahead.
Logged
Monstro Still Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia
Interlocutor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,663


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2020, 05:33:22 PM »
« Edited: October 07, 2020, 07:55:47 PM by Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia »

"Beautiful Flawless Cornyn will significantly overperform Cruz/Trump" and "Unknown Loser Hegar will significantly underperform Beto/Biden" are starting to look like some of the worst takes of the 2020 Election.

Also, yet another sign that this isn't even the Texas of 2016 and that 2018 was closer to a Dem floor than a ceiling
Logged
Ferguson97
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,902
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.74, S: -6.70

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2020, 11:38:01 PM »

Also, yet another sign that this isn't even the Texas of 2016 and that 2018 was closer to a Dem floor than a ceiling

I wouldn’t go THAT far but yeah, Texas is better than I thought
Logged
AtorBoltox
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,280
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2020, 12:22:10 AM »

This is starting to look a lot like 2008
Logged
Abolish class
sansymcsansface
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 261


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2020, 12:47:05 AM »

Beautiful stuff
Logged
EastOfEden
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,527


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 08, 2020, 08:54:10 AM »

Looks like Hegar is finally getting that name-recognition in order. Good. We may be headed for an upset here.
Logged
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 43,126
Jamaica



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 08, 2020, 10:33:09 AM »

Cornyn is gonna win regardless what happens at Prez race
Logged
Calthrina950
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,286
United States


P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 08, 2020, 10:47:24 AM »

Greenfield continues to hold a narrow advantage over Ernst, and Cornyn's lead has tightened as Hegar has consolidated more of the Democratic vote behind her. As of right now, Iowa is a Tossup/Lean D and Texas is a Tossup/Lean R, but these races are far from over, and a Democratic upset in Texas isn't out out of the realm of plausibility at this point.
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,457
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 08, 2020, 02:29:25 PM »

It's so unfortunate that Beto O'Rourke chose to run his embarrassing presidential campaign instead of gearing up for this senate race.

If he still said “Hell yes, we’re gonna take your guns,” he’d be doing far worse in Texas than Hegar.

Might not have if the goal was running for Senate instead of President all along though.
Logged
DaleCooper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,008


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 08, 2020, 05:48:00 PM »

It's so unfortunate that Beto O'Rourke chose to run his embarrassing presidential campaign instead of gearing up for this senate race.

If he still said “Hell yes, we’re gonna take your guns,” he’d be doing far worse in Texas than Hegar.

Might not have if the goal was running for Senate instead of President all along though.

I'm almost certain he wouldn't have said such a thing if he had run for Senate again.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,580
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 08, 2020, 08:38:09 PM »

New Poll: Texas Senator by Civiqs on 2020-10-08

Summary: D: 46%, R: 47%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,580
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 08, 2020, 08:40:02 PM »

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Civiqs on 2020-10-06

Summary: D: 49%, R: 46%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.052 seconds with 12 queries.