ME-Bangor Daily News/Digital Research: Gideon +1/+3 with RCV, Pingree +34, Golden +18

[LimoLiberal]

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/10/06/politics/sara-gideon-and-susan-collins-within-1-point-in-new-bdn-poll-of-maine-senate-race/

[Sestak]

No poll of instant runoff?

JUNK IT

[wbrocks67]

I have so many questions. First of all, no ranked choice vote? Also, 10% undecided WITH a 4-way and with the top two vote at 44 and 43? Come on man.

Not to mention, Gideon's fav being +5 and Collins being -11 does not jive up with a Gideon +1 race.

[VAR]

Golden up 18 in ME-02.

[Landslide Lyndon]

When an incumbent's best poll has her at 43%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're gonna have to watch this race

[LimoLiberal]

This is a little worrying especially considering Biden's lead has expanded since their last poll but Gideon's lead decreased by 4.

[wbrocks67]

This is a little worrying especially considering Biden's lead has expanded since their last poll but Gideon's lead decreased by 4.

Collins is at 43% and there is 13% other/undecided. I wouldn't worry too much.

[VAR]

Outlier until proven otherwise.

[wbrocks67]

Wait, they did RCV on the prez race but not Senate?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would skin this to the NH Gov race, Sununu needs to be defeated, we don't want him to run against Hassan but Collins is not right wing for the state, but still may lose due to the Dem trend of New England. After 2022, Scott may be the stand alone maverick of New England and even Baker may go down

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The common denominator in all these Maine polls is Golden getting a ton of cross-over votes in ME-02.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

There are a couple of slight errors with this poll. "Will not vote" is listed at 1% despite being closer to 0% of the sample and 4 Gideon and Collins voters select "prefer to to say" as their second choice, yet only 3 voters' second choice is "prefer not to say."

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rgOpdiCIcbEBjnt2pVvQO7ztkbfsNB90/view

Critical Insights
September 25 - October 4
Changes with July 28-August 9 poll; trends calculated pre-rounding

Statewide (Senate)
466 likely voters
MoE: 4.4% (apparently for likely voters, judging by the way the article reads)

Initial ballot
Gideon 44% (+1)
Collins 43% (+5)
Savage 3% (-2)
Linn 1% (not included in previous poll)
Prefer not to say 1% (n/c)
Someone else 1% (not included in previous poll)
Will not vote for Senator 0% (n/c)
Not sure 7% (-6)

With RCV (taking the second choices only of Linn/Savage/"someone else" voters):
Gideon 46%
Collins 43%
Do not have a second choice 1%
Prefer not to say 1%
Savage 1%
Linn 0% (but some voters)
Someone else 0% (but some voters)
Not sure 7%

ME-01 (House)
232 likely voters

Pingree 58% (+8)
Allen 24% (+1)
Someone else 3% (n/c)
Prefer not to say 2% (n/c)
Will not vote 1% (+1 from 0% with no voters)
Not sure 12% (-10)

With RCV
ME-02 (House)
234 likely voters

Golden 52% (+9)
Crafts 34% (+1)
Someone else 2% (n/c)
Prefer not to say 1% (+1 from 0% with no voters)
Will not vote 0% (but some voters)
Not sure 11% (-4)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Wait, they did RCV on the prez race but not Senate?

They did RCV directly on neither (in terms of published toplines). They just asked for if people did/didn't have second preferences (if they'd already picked a candidate) and you can work out from the cross tabs how non-Biden/Trump/Gideon/Collins voters split.

It took me a little while.

We're dealing with small sample sizes, but I found it surprising that Trump gained more than Biden from RCV and Collins gained zero second preferences.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Update: their last poll also had second preferences, but they did not publish the crosstabs for those amongst those who said absolutely or very likely, so trends would have to be compared to the larger previous sample.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone else a bit concerned about how much Gideon seems to be underperforming?

[President Johnson]

Lean Democratic, but no room for comfort. This seat has to flip to deliver President Biden a working majority to get stuff passed.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Crafts will likely win all undecideds but he would still lose

[wbrocks67]

Anyone else a bit concerned about how much Gideon seems to be underperforming?

How many times does this need to be said? Gideon was always going to underperform Biden and Collins was always going to out perform Trump. Collins will still likely lose, but Collins was never going to do as bad as Trump was. Problem for her is she'll do better, but it still likely won't be enough.

Anyone expecting Gideon and Biden to replicate margins is being ridiculous.

[MT Treasurer]

If she somehow pulls off an upset, hopefully McConnell spends the next six years reminding her who it was who saved her career. No reason for her not to pull a Manchin/Tester in her final term but it won’t happen because we can’t have nice things and Republicans are really bad at this politics thing.

The common denominator in all these Maine polls is Golden getting a ton of cross-over votes in ME-02.

This isn’t really surprising, though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If she somehow pulls off an upset, hopefully McConnell spends the next six years reminding her who it was who saved her career. No reason for her not to pull a Manchin/Tester in her final term but it won’t happen because we can’t have nice things and Republicans are really bad at this politics thing.

The common denominator in all these Maine polls is Golden getting a ton of cross-over votes in ME-02.

This isn’t really surprising, though.

I doubt Collins hangs on, due to the D trend of NE, Sununu is only 8 pts ahead and now can lose to Feltes. Charlie Baker is next. Dems might lose MT, but we were gonna pickup MO or NH, and NH it is. NE has the lowest minimum wage at 7.00 an hour as well. Sununu and Collins are gone and so is Baker.