I am going to say it first (or will I be first?): WV will trend slightly DEM this year for the first time in decades. It's mostly white and Biden is doing better than Hillary among whites with and without a college degree. But I do think Trump will of course win WV by more than 18 point and this poll probably underestimates his support. I'd say Trump is going to win by 30 points or so down from almost 42 points in 2016.
Nope! Again, I’ve been saying it for months.
Look at the primaries for another indicator: In 2012, some convicted felon came within single digits of beating Obama in WV as a protest vote. This year, Biden easily won every county and did best for any Democratic candidate since 2004. In 2012, Obama was running even more unopposed than Biden was at that point this year, so the only explanation is that there are more registered Democrats in WV who are willing to cast a ballot for Biden than Obama. Or Hillary in 2016 for that matter, when Bernie was the protest vote.
Similar phenomenon in Kentucky, when “uncommitted” won several counties and severely cut into Obama’s margin in 2012, but not Biden in 2020.