WV-WOWK TV : Trump+18 (user search)
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  WV-WOWK TV : Trump+18 (search mode)
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Author Topic: WV-WOWK TV : Trump+18  (Read 2588 times)
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
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Posts: 19,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« on: October 06, 2020, 05:49:44 PM »

West Virginia polling typically is pretty off on the national level. Then again I don't think there is the same level of hate that there was for Obama or Clinton.

There is not.

I've been saying for months that Biden will likely do best for a Democrat since 2008 in WV. People kept saying it would actually move farther towards Trump, but no.

Biden's going to win at least Monongalia County too.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2020, 06:34:58 PM »

I am going to say it first (or will I be first?): WV will trend slightly DEM this year for the first time in decades. It's mostly white and Biden is doing better than Hillary among whites with and without a college degree. But I do think Trump will of course win WV by more than 18 point and this poll probably underestimates his support. I'd say Trump is going to win by 30 points or so down from almost 42 points in 2016.

Nope! Again, I’ve been saying it for months.

Look at the primaries for another indicator: In 2012, some convicted felon came within single digits of beating Obama in WV as a protest vote. This year, Biden easily won every county and did best for any Democratic candidate since 2004. In 2012, Obama was running even more unopposed than Biden was at that point this year, so the only explanation is that there are more registered Democrats in WV who are willing to cast a ballot for Biden than Obama. Or Hillary in 2016 for that matter, when Bernie was the protest vote.

Similar phenomenon in Kentucky, when “uncommitted” won several counties and severely cut into Obama’s margin in 2012, but not Biden in 2020.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2020, 06:37:30 PM »

Triton isn't that reliable and dominant parties tend to be underestimated in safe states. I would shocked if WV trended D.

You really, REALLY should not be.

A lot of people who unironically believed in the “economically anxious” theory are gonna be shocked when a white man outperforms a white woman and black man in states like this, and it’s gonna be highly amusing to those of us who actually live in these places and know them well.
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