WV-WOWK TV : Trump+18

[Bojack Horseman]

Is it possible for Biden to win any counties in WV if he’s only losing it by 18?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Is it possible for Biden to win any counties in WV if he’s only losing it by 18?

Hypothetically if he only lost by 18 he would most likely be carrying kanawha, jefferson, monongalia, and cabell

[Alben Barkley]

I am going to say it first (or will I be first?): WV will trend slightly DEM this year for the first time in decades. It's mostly white and Biden is doing better than Hillary among whites with and without a college degree. But I do think Trump will of course win WV by more than 18 point and this poll probably underestimates his support. I'd say Trump is going to win by 30 points or so down from almost 42 points in 2016.

Nope! Again, I’ve been saying it for months.

Look at the primaries for another indicator: In 2012, some convicted felon came within single digits of beating Obama in WV as a protest vote. This year, Biden easily won every county and did best for any Democratic candidate since 2004. In 2012, Obama was running even more unopposed than Biden was at that point this year, so the only explanation is that there are more registered Democrats in WV who are willing to cast a ballot for Biden than Obama. Or Hillary in 2016 for that matter, when Bernie was the protest vote.

Similar phenomenon in Kentucky, when “uncommitted” won several counties and severely cut into Obama’s margin in 2012, but not Biden in 2020.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Triton isn't that reliable and dominant parties tend to be underestimated in safe states. I would shocked if WV trended D.

[GlobeSoc]

does this mean the old AR Trump+2 poll was right??? /s

[Alben Barkley]

Triton isn't that reliable and dominant parties tend to be underestimated in safe states. I would shocked if WV trended D.

You really, REALLY should not be.

A lot of people who unironically believed in the “economically anxious” theory are gonna be shocked when a white man outperforms a white woman and black man in states like this, and it’s gonna be highly amusing to those of us who actually live in these places and know them well.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Triton isn't that reliable and dominant parties tend to be underestimated in safe states. I would shocked if WV trended D.

You really, REALLY should not be.

A lot of people who unironically believed in the “economically anxious” theory are gonna be shocked when a white man outperforms a white woman and black man in states like this, and it’s gonna be highly amusing to those of us who actually live in these places and know them well.

I'm on board with Alben on this. KY and WV swing D this time in a dead cat bounce before inevitably going back to sh**t for dems in a harris vs pence or whatever race in 2024.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Triton isn't that reliable and dominant parties tend to be underestimated in safe states. I would shocked if WV trended D.

You really, REALLY should not be.

A lot of people who unironically believed in the “economically anxious” theory are gonna be shocked when a white man outperforms a white woman and black man in states like this, and it’s gonna be highly amusing to those of us who actually live in these places and know them well.

Biden respondents reasonably well to 'muh economic anxiety' (a stupid term, but what I mean is standard economic populism) too, FWIW. He's not a traditional populist, but his message has a touch of that in a post-COVID-19 environment and his campaign has certainly kept a tighter focus on the kitchen table issues than HRC's. Trump's also governed much more like a traditional conservative than he campaigned and therefore is primed to alienate a lot of the constituencies that should be going his way.

All that said, look at the voter registration changes in WV and tell me with a straight face that it'll trend - not swing, but trend - Democratic. For the first time, Republican registration crossed over Democratic statewide. West Virginians were voting for no-names in the Democratic primary because none of the real candidates satisfied them. This state is  getting more Republican.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Is it possible for Biden to win any counties in WV if he’s only losing it by 18?

Monongalia for sure. Possibly Jefferson and Kanawha.

[Rand]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

“Stop quoting me guys, ur hurting my feelings.”

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

“Stop quoting me guys, ur hurting my feelings.”

This but unironically. The meme was funny but now it's just a bit mean. If the point hasn't got to Sir Woodbury, doing it 100 more times isn't going to help that endeavour.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is what happens in a wave IN, MT, NH, WVa, NC Govs are competetive. Parson seems like he is gonna cruise to reelection over Galloway, he can get close to 55-45 percent of the vote

[swf541]

Triton isn't that reliable and dominant parties tend to be underestimated in safe states. I would shocked if WV trended D.

You really, REALLY should not be.

A lot of people who unironically believed in the “economically anxious” theory are gonna be shocked when a white man outperforms a white woman and black man in states like this, and it’s gonna be highly amusing to those of us who actually live in these places and know them well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just like Bernie, Biden can win WVA, OH and IA and help McGrath in KY. As I stated before IN, NH, WVA, MT are all within single digits Gov races, and upset in a blue wave will happen. I think all will go D except for MO. Parson is gonna cruise against Galloway 😆😆😆

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

AH! This is absolutely terrible for Trump.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

If Biden gets 38% in WV, he'd certainly up +10-15 nationally.

[libertpaulian]

Sure, Jan.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Quite obvious that WV would trend D in this environment IMO. For one thing, it's the first election in which Republicans are the incumbent party since 2008.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Quite obvious that WV would trend D in this environment IMO. For one thing, it's the first election in which Republicans are the incumbent party since 2008.

That is true for every state. You are making the case for WV swinging D, not trending (swing relative to the NPV).

[Calthrina950]

This lines up with Biden leading by double digits in national polls.

This is what I was about to say. If Trump "only" wins West Virginia by 18 next month, then Biden will definitely carry at least Monongalia County. That means Biden could become the first presidential candidate in 24 years, since Bill Clinton in 1996, and the first one this century to win at least one county in every state.

[here2view]

Sounds like they're coming out of the coal mines in Mingo County!

[Hope For A New Era]

See? Told you. Hillary Clinton was uniquely toxic.

[Badger]

Triton isn't that reliable and dominant parties tend to be underestimated in safe states. I would shocked if WV trended D.

You really, REALLY should not be.

A lot of people who unironically believed in the “economically anxious” theory are gonna be shocked when a white man outperforms a white woman and black man in states like this, and it’s gonna be highly amusing to those of us who actually live in these places and know them well.

I'm on board with Alben on this. KY and WV swing D this time in a dead cat bounce before inevitably going back to sh**t for dems in a harris vs pence or whatever race in 2024.

If nothing else, it could be a dead cat bounce

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Triton isn't that reliable and dominant parties tend to be underestimated in safe states. I would shocked if WV trended D.

You really, REALLY should not be.

A lot of people who unironically believed in the “economically anxious” theory are gonna be shocked when a white man outperforms a white woman and black man in states like this, and it’s gonna be highly amusing to those of us who actually live in these places and know them well.

I'm on board with Alben on this. KY and WV swing D this time in a dead cat bounce before inevitably going back to sh**t for dems in a harris vs pence or whatever race in 2024.

If nothing else, it could be a dead cat bounce

I literally said that lol

[NOVA Green]

Is it possible for Biden to win any counties in WV if he’s only losing it by 18?

Hypothetically if he only lost by 18 he would most likely be carrying kanawha, jefferson, monongalia, and cabell

It would also depend on where the swings are happening since not all swings are universal.

Obama almost won Brooke County in the pan-handle back in '08 for example, and didn't do that shabby in Ohio County (Wheeling) either....

In theory you might see dramatic swings towards Biden in Steel Towns in West Virginia, where once again Trump has failed to deliver on his promises.

Sure, it's always probably a good idea to default to a traditional map when it comes to an incumbent running for reelection, but if Trump's support is collapsing faster than a bridge that hasn't been upgraded for decades with Union Made American Steel, it is not implausible that "dead cat bounce" might occur more within the aging mining communities, but larger swings in Steel Areas...

Honestly Biden needs to keep pushing his rebuilding America plan, and also finally honor the commitments made to the UMWA and the Coal Miners who helped fuel the Industrial Revolution in America even during the bloody strikes, and then later in support of the War Effort against Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, and Imperial Japan, and still yet have not received their fair share...

Everybody gets it down in the Appalachian Coal Country, that the Industry will never be like it was before, and that the larger non-union pit mains in places out West, Australia etc will swamp the more labor intensive Coal Seams...

Still, as I have been saying for Years on Atlas, the Federal Government needs to bail out the Union Pensions for retired Coal Miners as a settlement on debt owed, which is the key demand of the UMWA today.

Biden needs to come out in support of this not simply for political pandering, but also as a moral duty for those who have sacrificed so much for so little.

As an Oregonian in College in Southern Ohio in the early '90s, I was involved in solidarity activities with the UMWA during the final "Rolling General Strike in the Appalachian Coal Fields", only a few years after the Pittston strike in Western Virginia back in '89.

We learned out lessons from when I was in High School in Oregon about the false dichotomies between the "Labor and Environmental Movement" that the bosses and their Republican supporters would play.

Unfortunately the inability of Democratic and Republican Administrations alike for decades to address the fundamental structural economic issues within much of the region is a key reason why there is a "No Hope... No Future" Multi-Generational mindset, and also precisely why political swings and volatility are more and not less likely than in many other places.

Biden should run radio and TV ads in Wheeling (also hits SW PA and SE OH)...

If Biden really wants to "Troll Trump" why not place a few TV and Radio ads in Charleston?   Can't imagine the media market would be that pricey...

Radio ads in general are pretty inexpensive if you're trying to conserve on cash (which Biden is not that desperate on), but still pick a few popular Country and Rock Stations and see what you get where tons of folks listen to the radio driving to and from work for longer distances or doing their two week grocery run, and see what you get....