North Carolina (ECU) : Tillis +1

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The result with leaners is actually Tillis +0% as there's less than 1% between them.

October 2-4
1232 likely voters
MoE: 3.2%
Changes with August 29-30 poll; trends calculated pre-rounding

Tillis 47% (+2)
Cunningham 46% (+1)
Some other candidate 3% (n/c)
Prefer not to answer 1% (-2)
Would choose not to vote for this office 1% (+1)
Undecided 2% (-1)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Not getting my hopes up, even if I don’t think Tillis dramatically underperforms Trump.

If Dems lose this race and the Senate, Biden’s Presidency is over before it even begins.

Wow, you just turned me from a Tillis supporter into an enthusiastic Tillis supporter!

(Technically you’re not completely right, though -- even if we assume Republicans win enough other races, they’ll have to survive the GA runoff/-s, which is by no means a given; and executive orders are still a real thing.)

Biden loathes executive orders, probably even more so than Obama (with the exception of DACA). It's the Senator in him.

I think he'll evolve a bit on that if there is Congressional gridlock from day one, but not by much. I suspect he'll be a less powerful executive than Trump.