ME-Bangor Daily News/Digital Research: Biden +11

[LimoLiberal]

Biden (D) - 51
Trump (R-inc) - 40

Trump leads 49-40 in ME-02.

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/10/06/politics/sara-gideon-and-susan-collins-within-1-point-in-new-bdn-poll-of-maine-senate-race/

[Person Man]

I doubt Trump is running 20 points ahead in ME-02.

[wbrocks67]

This topline is not that out of step, but those ME-02 and Senate #s sure are.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Yeah that ME-02 result is absolutely nonsensical given the statewide numbers.

[Xing]

ME-02 won't vote 20 points right of the statewide vote, but I think people are overestimating how much of a "fluke" it was in 2016, and I still think Trump would win it (by less than 9) if Biden's winning ME by 11 (maybe his margin would be more like 2-3%.)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

ME-02 won't vote 20 points right of the statewide vote, but I think people are overestimating how much of a "fluke" it was in 2016, and I still think Trump would win it (by less than 9) if Biden's winning ME by 11 (maybe his margin would be more like 2-3%.)

I tend to agree -- ME-02's profile is pretty textbook for an Obama-Trump district. 

[kireev]

Compared to their August poll:

Biden +6
Trump +2

[Figueira]

Not a great pollster. ME-2 is probably a tossup though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gideon is only up 1

[Kuumo]

Compared to their August poll:

Biden +6
Trump +2

Trends just got a lot more real.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Critical Insights
September 25 - October 4
Changes with July 28-August 9 poll; trends calculated pre-rounding

Statewide
466 likely voters
MoE: 4.4% (apparently for likely voters, judging by the way the article reads)

Initial ballot
Biden 51% (+6)
Trump 40% (+2)
Jorgensen 3% (not included in previous poll)
Prefer not to say 2% (+1)
Hawkins 1% (not included in previous poll)
Someone else 1% (-8)
De La Fuente 0% (no voters)
Not sure who will vote for 3% (-3)

With RCV (taking the second choices only of Hawkins and Jorgensen voters):
Biden 52%
Trump 40%
Prefer not to say 2%
De La Fuente 1%
No second preference 1% [edit: this means voters wouldn't rank a second choice, judging by the Senate questions]
Someone else 1%
Hawkins 0% (but some voters)
Jorgensen 0% (no voters)
Not sure who will vote for 3%

ME-01
232 likely voters

Initial ballot
Biden 62%
Trump 30%
Jorgensen 3%
Hawkins 1%
Prefer not to say 1%
Someone else 1%
De La Fuente 0% (no voters)
Not sure who will vote for 3%

ME-02
234 likely voters

Initial ballot
Trump 49%
Biden 41%
Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 1%
Prefer not to say 1%
Someone else 0% (but some voters)
De La Fuente 0% (no voters)
Not sure who will vote for 3%

[Figueira]

That's a pretty small sample size for each of the districts.

[Gass3268]

The poll, all on its own, dropped Biden's % of winning ME-02 on 538 from 52% to 45%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hard to believe Gideon is up 1 and Biden is up 11

[Figueira]

The poll, all on its own, dropped Biden's % of winning ME-02 on 538 from 52% to 45%.

Yeah, 538 puts too much stock in bad pollsters. 45% odds aren't too bad though.

[StateBoiler]

So if the statewide and Maine 1st vote are solid Biden majorities, but in Maine 2nd no one got 50%, only RCV would be done for it?

[ProudModerate2]

I agree with others here, who say that ME-02 will probably be toss-up-ish.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So if the statewide and Maine 1st vote are solid Biden majorities, but in Maine 2nd no one got 50%, only RCV would be done for it?

Yes.

[MT Treasurer]

Believable. It never made much sense for ME to vote way to the left of NH, although I wouldn’t read too much into the district numbers given the small sample size (I do expect the gap between ME-01 and ME-02 to widen in this election, though).

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Maine President by Bangor Daily News on 2020-10-04

Summary: D: 51%, R: 40%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details