Monmouth PA: Biden +12

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 30-October 4
500 registered/likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with August 28-31 poll

Registered voters
Biden 54% (+5)
Trump 42% (-3)
Jorgensen 1% (-1)
Other candidate 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
No one 0% (but some voters) (-1)
Undecided 2% (-2)

Hawkins previously at 0%

Likely voters (high turnout)
Biden 54% (+5)
Trump 43% (-3)

Likely voters (low turnout)
Biden 53% (+5)
Trump 45% (-2)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's clear Pat Toomey has hurt Trump's chances in PA and Trump won on the back of Pat Toomey. Toomey knows his state, he knows what happened to Rick Santorum after 2 Terms

[ultraviolet]

It's clear Pat Toomey has hurt Trump's chances in PA and Trump won on the back of Pat Toomey.

Is it though?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

They all look like outliers until they're not.

A double-digit Biden lead and the only thing preventing folks from thinking it'll stick is "2016" and this mythical "tightening" that grows dimmer with every early vote that is banked

[ProudModerate2]

Why is there no Nuclear Elmo in this thread yet?
What is wrong with you people?

[Storr]

SCRANTON JOE

[President Johnson]

Scranton Joe!

This is definitely an outlier, though, unless confirmed otherwise. But I have a feeling this election won't be close. I just fail to see how Biden can blow this realistically or how Trump can come back.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm officially eating crow on my belief during the primaries that Biden was a paper tiger against Trump. He really is proving to be a great candidate to win back the Rust Belt with.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm officially eating crow on my belief during the primaries that Biden was a paper tiger against Trump. He really is proving to be a great candidate to win back the Rust Belt with.

Do you really think Klobuchar or Bernie or Booker or Harris couldn't beat Trump, they could in Covid

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm officially eating crow on my belief during the primaries that Biden was a paper tiger against Trump. He really is proving to be a great candidate to win back the Rust Belt with.

Do you really think Klobuchar or Bernie or Booker or Harris couldn't beat Trump, they could in Covid

I think any Democratic nominee more exciting than John Delaney would be on track to win in this environment, but there's a difference between being on track to win and leading in Pennsylvania by double digits.

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

I'm officially eating crow on my belief during the primaries that Biden was a paper tiger against Trump. He really is proving to be a great candidate to win back the Rust Belt with.

It's almost like playing up the return to normal thing is an electoral winner

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I'm officially eating crow on my belief during the primaries that Biden was a paper tiger against Trump. He really is proving to be a great candidate to win back the Rust Belt with.

It's almost like playing up the return to normal thing is an electoral winner

Biden's strategy became a lot stronger once 2020 and the coronavirus kicked into full swing. Now, "Return to normal," is the unrealistic populist message.

[Hammy]

Monmouth had Clinton 50-40 at this point in 2016. Not saying Biden will lose given he's at 54% but it'll still be closer than this, 51-46 seems like a reasonable expectation from this poll.

[Andy Hine]

Scranton Joe!

This is definitely an outlier, though, unless confirmed otherwise. But I have a feeling this election won't be close. I just fail to see how Biden can blow this realistically or how Trump can come back.

Everything is an outlier until a poll comes out that confirms my biased attitude.

[Buzz]

Put these clowns behind bars.

[Pericles]

Put these clowns behind bars.

Don't you guys support free speech?

[Rep Jessica]

Monmouth failed big time! Those shy trumpers are real!

[Bootes Void]

nate cohn did say even if the polls were as off 2016, biden would still get over 300ev which he will

[bandg]

We all know Quinnipiac is terrible, but Monmouth is just as bad. Here are their state polls in the last month:

PA: Biden +7
FL: Biden +6
GA: Biden +4
IA: Biden +3
AZ: Biden +7
NC: Biden +4

Every poll significantly off in Biden's direction, an average of ~6 points. I hope that after this election, people start thinking of these pollsters (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Marist, Langer etc) as basically the equivalent of Trafalgar/Rasmussen but for the left. The results speak for themselves.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Si basically, 2020, was a mirror opposite of 2016, with WI, PA, and MU going the opposite direction to Biden

AZ was the lone exception. FL, OH and IA voted the same way as in 2016

[2016]

We all know Quinnipiac is terrible, but Monmouth is just as bad. Here are their state polls in the last month:

PA: Biden +7
FL: Biden +6
GA: Biden +4
IA: Biden +3
AZ: Biden +7
NC: Biden +4

Every poll significantly off in Biden's direction, an average of ~6 points. I hope that after this election, people start thinking of these pollsters (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Marist, Langer etc) as basically the equivalent of Trafalgar/Rasmussen but for the left. The results speak for themselves.

Mixed bag for Marist. They NAILED Arizona though. They had Trump and Biden at 48 % each. Biden leads by 0.6 %.

[Buzz]

We all know Quinnipiac is terrible, but Monmouth is just as bad. Here are their state polls in the last month:

PA: Biden +7
FL: Biden +6
GA: Biden +4
IA: Biden +3
AZ: Biden +7
NC: Biden +4

Every poll significantly off in Biden's direction, an average of ~6 points. I hope that after this election, people start thinking of these pollsters (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Marist, Langer etc) as basically the equivalent of Trafalgar/Rasmussen but for the left. The results speak for themselves.

Mixed bag for Marist. They NAILED Arizona though. They had Trump and Biden at 48 % each. Biden leads by 0.6 %.

Getting one right is not a mixed bag.  It’s still pathetic.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

We all know Quinnipiac is terrible, but Monmouth is just as bad. Here are their state polls in the last month:

PA: Biden +7
FL: Biden +6
GA: Biden +4
IA: Biden +3
AZ: Biden +7
NC: Biden +4

Every poll significantly off in Biden's direction, an average of ~6 points. I hope that after this election, people start thinking of these pollsters (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Marist, Langer etc) as basically the equivalent of Trafalgar/Rasmussen but for the left. The results speak for themselves.

Mixed bag for Marist. They NAILED Arizona though. They had Trump and Biden at 48 % each. Biden leads by 0.6 %.

Getting one right is not a mixed bag.  It’s still pathetic.

Would you be comfortable still taking their AZ polls seriously at least? It may come to the point where we can take certain pollsters seriously but only in a handful of states each.

[Buzz]

We all know Quinnipiac is terrible, but Monmouth is just as bad. Here are their state polls in the last month:

PA: Biden +7
FL: Biden +6
GA: Biden +4
IA: Biden +3
AZ: Biden +7
NC: Biden +4

Every poll significantly off in Biden's direction, an average of ~6 points. I hope that after this election, people start thinking of these pollsters (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Marist, Langer etc) as basically the equivalent of Trafalgar/Rasmussen but for the left. The results speak for themselves.

Mixed bag for Marist. They NAILED Arizona though. They had Trump and Biden at 48 % each. Biden leads by 0.6 %.

Getting one right is not a mixed bag.  It’s still pathetic.

Would you be comfortable still taking their AZ polls seriously at least? It may come to the point where we can take certain pollsters seriously but only in a handful of states each.

I don’t trust Marist at all.  They had Sinema winning by 6 in 2018.  They have a noticeable D bias and appear to have just gotten lucky one time this year.