Monmouth PA: Biden +12
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Author Topic: Monmouth PA: Biden +12  (Read 5485 times)
#TheShadowyAbyss
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« on: October 06, 2020, 10:01:26 AM »
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2020, 10:01:59 AM »
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_pa_100620/
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2020, 10:02:37 AM »
Quote from: SirWoodbury on August 29, 2020, 11:21:06 AM
OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2020, 10:02:41 AM »
Holy...
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redjohn
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2020, 10:03:02 AM »
And that's the race, folks.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2020, 10:03:33 AM »
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2020, 10:04:00 AM »
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2020, 10:04:08 AM »
This follows a Biden+13-14-ish national lead, for sure.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2020, 10:05:05 AM »
Yeah, now this poll is in line with the NBC/WSJ and CNN polls.
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WD
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2020, 10:05:51 AM »
Folks, this election is over.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2020, 10:06:01 AM »
If this is even remotely accurate (even within ~8%),  then Trump is finished.  You can't bring down a 12% margin in under 30 days.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2020, 10:07:23 AM »
So according to Monmouth Pennsylvania will vote 6-7 points to the left of the nation?
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redjohn
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« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2020, 10:07:29 AM »
Even if Trump closed the gap, Biden is at 54%. State is likely D, the only reason it's not "safe" is because we're anticipating a 2016-style polling error that is not likely to materialize in Trump's direction. Biden's going to win PA and it's not going to be close.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2020, 10:07:37 AM »
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2020, 10:07:40 AM »
D O M I N A T I N G

This would line up with the CNN national poll, but it's for sure an outlier. Biden for sure is leading in PA, but not by that much. A margin half that wide, 6 pts, would be very plausible in the end though.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #15 on: October 06, 2020, 10:08:23 AM »
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #16 on: October 06, 2020, 10:08:41 AM »
OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
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Pollster
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« Reply #17 on: October 06, 2020, 10:09:04 AM »
Monmouth is prone to huge swings because of their small sample sizes and huge margins of error, but this poll - taken in line with the recent national polling - pretty clearly suggests that Trump is in free fall.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #18 on: October 06, 2020, 10:09:12 AM »
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ExSky
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« Reply #19 on: October 06, 2020, 10:09:19 AM »
Oh my goodness
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #20 on: October 06, 2020, 10:09:40 AM »
Welp this makes their August poll an outlier, which we all expected it would be. This also lines up with multiple other high quality polls of PA being nearly double digits as well.

Small subsamples but Biden getting 83-16 among nonwhites is significant, since thats about exactly the margin in 2016 and 2018.  But Biden doing way better among Whites (vs 2016). He's basically replicating Casey 2018 here. (he also tied with whites)
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #21 on: October 06, 2020, 10:09:58 AM »
OH MAMA DONT DO EM LIKE THATTT!!!
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The Mikado
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« Reply #22 on: October 06, 2020, 10:10:11 AM »
It's 54-42 with RVs, 54-43 with High Turnout LV model, and (lol) 53-45 with Low Turnout LV model.
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Horus
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« Reply #23 on: October 06, 2020, 10:10:29 AM »
Outlier until proven otherwise, but this makes me more confident in predicting a Biden win. Still not out of the woods though.
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Rand
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« Reply #24 on: October 06, 2020, 10:10:51 AM »
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