Suffolk/USA today FLORIDA: Tie 45-45

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/1313431030498496513

[Horus]

Too many undecideds and nothing to compare it to since it's their first FL release of the year. Throw it in the average.

[wbrocks67]

Too many undecideds and nothing to compare it to since it's their first FL release of the year. Throw it in the average.

[VAR]

Eh, this is one of Trump’s best polls, yet he’s only tied with Biden. Florida remains Tilt/Lean D.

[wbrocks67]

Another pollster that seems to have trouble with Hispanics - they have Biden only up 4.

[Beet]

So Biden is up 16 points nationally yet Florida is only a tie? Pretty bad news for Biden.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So Biden is up 16 points nationally yet Florida is only a tie? Pretty bad news for Biden.

It's POSSIBLE that he's not up by sixteen points nationally, Beet. 

[ON Progressive]

So Biden is up 16 points nationally yet Florida is only a tie? Pretty bad news for Biden.

Are you gonna ignore that Biden +6 poll with a far larger sample size from a more reputable pollster?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Biden leads Hispanics by 4, seniors by 3 and undecideds lean Trump

[Crumpets]

Florida and North Carolina are pure toss ups. Nothing will change this in my mind until and unless they are called for one candidate or the other.

[Tender Branson]

This must be the 1st poll in which Gloria LaRiver has received any support ...

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Suffolk for some reason has been a rosier pollster for Trump

[Stuart98]

LaRivamentum!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fuller release:

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2020/10_6_2020_tables_pdftxt.pdf

500 likely voters

Full ballot:

Trump 45%
Biden 45%
Jorgensen 2%
Refused 2%
La Riva 1%
Blankenship 0%  (no voters)
De La Fuente 0% (no voters)
Hawkins 0% (no voters)
Other 0% (no voters)
Undecided 6%

Trump leads by 1 vote in the above sample

Biden v.s. Trump (follow-up questions were only asked to Jorgensen/La Riva voters, but here's the topline results with them incorporated):

Trump 46%
Biden 45%
Refused 2%
Other 0% (but some voters)
Undecided 7%

[VAR]

Trump approval: 48/47 (+1)

Favorabilities:
Trump: 47/48 (-1)
Pence: 49/42 (+7)
Harris: 40/46 (-6)
Biden: 46/45 (+1)
Rubio: 46/35 (+11)
Scott: 38/44 (-6)
DeSantis: 47/40 (+7)

[Buzz]

As I’ve said several times, Florida will go for Trump on 11/3

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

As I’ve said several times, Florida will go for Trump on 11/3

Agreed.  Definitely a state that Trump needs far more than Biden, though. 

[Beet]

As I’ve said several times, Florida will go for Trump on 11/3

Agreed.  Definitely a state that Trump needs far more than Biden, though. 

I wouldn't say far more, PGQ. Any candidate that loses FL needs to sweep PA-WI-MI.

[roxas11]

The huge red flag in the poll for trump is that once again Biden is winning seniors.
on elections day if that turns out to be true Trump is not winning FLORIDA and Biden margin of victory will end being a lot bigger than what this poll is saying  

despite all of trump gains with Hispanics in this poll he still is not able to take he lead because Biden is still beating him among older voters and that alone is what will cost him this state

it still shocking to me that trump won this group of voters by big margins in 2016 and now he is losing those same voters to Biden in 2020

[wbrocks67]

Definitely a rosier sample for Trump that his approval in the positives.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

As I’ve said several times, Florida will go for Trump on 11/3

Agreed.  Definitely a state that Trump needs far more than Biden, though. 

I wouldn't say far more, PGQ. Any candidate that loses FL needs to sweep PA-WI-MI.

Do I at least have permission to change my user abbreviation to PGQ? I like it!

[Arkansas Yankee]

Another pollster that seems to have trouble with Hispanics - they have Biden only up 4.

Maybe Biden is having problems with Hispanics at least in Florida.

[Skill and Chance]

There seems to be one set of polls that are showing a big Biden bump and another set of polls that show the pre-debate status quo being maintained.  This makes me really wonder about nonresponse bias.  However, the pre-debate status quo is already enough for Biden to win, which should be reassuring for him.

[Arkansas Yankee]

So Biden is up 16 points nationally yet Florida is only a tie? Pretty bad news for Biden.

Are you gonna ignore that Biden +6 poll with a far larger sample size from a more reputable pollster?

Do you even understand that pollsters are all fallible?  You seem to worship those you like. Do you really believe Biden Is up 16 nationally? Do even know 538 grades Suffolk as an A pollster?

[wbrocks67]

There seems to be one set of polls that are showing a big Biden bump and another set of polls that show the pre-debate status quo being maintained.  This makes me really wonder about nonresponse bias.  However, the pre-debate status quo is already enough for Biden to win, which should be reassuring for him.

Not really. This is really the only poll showing the race about where it was. Every other poll has shown at least somewhat of an increase.

This poll has Pence at a +7 approval rating. It's a little wonky