FL-UNF: Biden +6
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  FL-UNF: Biden +6
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Author Topic: FL-UNF: Biden +6  (Read 1678 times)
Terry the Fat Shark
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« on: October 06, 2020, 06:04:43 AM »
« edited: October 06, 2020, 06:08:49 AM by Biden +3 in Texas »

https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/UNF%20PORL%20Statewide%20October%20Press%20Release.pdf

Biden - 51%
Trump - 45%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2020, 06:13:10 AM »

October 1-4
3134 likely voters
MoE: 1.8%
Changes with February 2020 poll

Biden 51% (+6)
Trump 45% (n/c)
Someone else 1% (not in previous poll)
Don't know/refusal 3% (-7)
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afleitch
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« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2020, 06:20:55 AM »

'unf' indeed. If it holds true!
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Skye
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2020, 06:28:45 AM »

Worth noting that this poll included an oversample of Hispanic voters (n=779) and the result is
Biden 54 - Trump 39. The sample is also Clinton +16.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2020, 06:29:54 AM »

Worth noting that this poll included an oversample of Hispanic voters (n=779) and the result is
Biden 54 - Trump 39. The sample is also Clinton +16.

Throw it away then
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2020, 06:30:13 AM »

Worth noting that this poll included an oversample of Hispanic voters (n=779) and the result is
Biden 54 - Trump 39. The sample is also Clinton +16.

Interesting, so at least according to this poll, Biden nearly doing the exact same with Hispanics as Clinton did.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2020, 06:30:44 AM »

Worth noting that this poll included an oversample of Hispanic voters (n=779) and the result is
Biden 54 - Trump 39. The sample is also Clinton +16.

Throw it away then

The topline #s are for the ordinary sample. The Hispanic oversample was for releasing poll results specifically for them alongside the ordinary sample
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2020, 06:30:49 AM »

Worth noting that this poll included an oversample of Hispanic voters (n=779) and the result is
Biden 54 - Trump 39. The sample is also Clinton +16.

Yup.  And the sample for the poll overall was 42-42-3-12 (Clinton-Trump-Other-Did Not Vote).  
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TopShelfGoal
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« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2020, 06:53:21 AM »

Sample size is over 3000 voters. Seems like a high quality poll.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2020, 06:57:09 AM »

Worth noting that this poll included an oversample of Hispanic voters (n=779) and the result is
Biden 54 - Trump 39. The sample is also Clinton +16.

Throw it away then

The topline #s are for the ordinary sample. The Hispanic oversample was for releasing poll results specifically for them alongside the ordinary sample

Oh ok, nevermind then lol
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2020, 06:59:08 AM »

Worth noting that this poll included an oversample of Hispanic voters (n=779) and the result is
Biden 54 - Trump 39. The sample is also Clinton +16.

Throw it away then

Do you understand what oversampling means?  The pollster intentionally samples an extra large number of people in some subgroup in order to get a better picture of that subgroup's views (in order to avoid the large MoE you get with a small subsample).  But in computing results for the overall sample, the subsample is weighted down to the appropriate proportion of the overall sample.  So it doesn't distort the overall sample results, but gives you a better picture of the subgroup.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2020, 07:01:30 AM »

Worth noting that this poll included an oversample of Hispanic voters (n=779) and the result is
Biden 54 - Trump 39. The sample is also Clinton +16.

Throw it away then

Do you understand what oversampling means?  The pollster intentionally samples an extra large number of people in some subgroup in order to get a better picture of that subgroup's views (in order to avoid the large MoE you get with a small subsample).  But in computing results for the overall sample, the subsample is weighted down to the appropriate proportion of the overall sample.  So it doesn't distort the overall sample results, but gives you a better picture of the subgroup.

Someone already explained it to me but thanks again
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Buzz
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« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2020, 07:18:10 AM »

They had Gillum up by six as well.
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Zanas
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« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2020, 07:33:10 AM »

I was surprised to learn that Cubans make up only 6% of the Hispanic subsample, I always figured Cubans were around a third of Hispanic Floridians.
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Horus
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« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2020, 07:37:01 AM »

They had Gillum up by six as well.

So Florida is a coin flip? Sounds about right.
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Skye
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« Reply #15 on: October 06, 2020, 07:45:13 AM »

I was surprised to learn that Cubans make up only 6% of the Hispanic subsample, I always figured Cubans were around a third of Hispanic Floridians.

I saw the numbers, it's probably an error. They probably mixed the ancestries when writing the crosstabs.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #16 on: October 06, 2020, 08:28:31 AM »

New Poll: Florida President by University of North Florida on 2020-10-04

Summary: D: 51%, R: 45%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #17 on: October 06, 2020, 09:51:55 AM »

UNF had Clinton +2 and Rubio + 6 in their last poll back in 2016
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Xing
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« Reply #18 on: October 06, 2020, 10:42:08 AM »

Why didn't they poll Cubans and Venezuelans in Miami-Dade? Obviously if they had bothered to poll Trump's biggest fans (because muh sOcIaLiSm), he'd be up by at least 5!!
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