This race is reminding me more and more of IL-SEN 2016, just on a national stage:
*Republican who just barely got lucky by running against a corrupt/extremely unpopular Democrat in his last race is now facing completely different circumstances (far more popular opponent, lack of persuadable voters, more energized D base, erosion of suburban support, etc.) in his reelection bid which make it impossible for him to replicate his last victory.
*The incumbent is (badly) trailing a Democrat who has been considered "overrated" and "weak" and "likely to blow it" by many even when nothing suggests that this is the case.
*Many obsessively caution against underestimating the incumbent even when it should have been obvious that he’s pretty much been toast since day one.
*The incumbent eventually ends up self-destructing and loses about as badly as the polling averages have been suggesting.
(obviously not a flawless analogy)
To be fair, Mark imploded as badly as he did largely because of his stroke. If he was healthy, he would have likely still lost, but by a much smaller margin. In 2008 (
!!!), he won reelection to his House seat by 6 points as Obama carried the district by 22.
